So what you meant to say was one Penn State injury plus 30% of Iowa being replaced, which is different than Iowa.
OK, let's say we replace 30% of Iowa. Right now Iowa is looking at a 58 point deficit to Penn State if you assume Penn State scores zero at 149 (maybe, maybe not).
What is realistic for Anthony Ferrari? Probably low AA at the highest. Call it 6th to 8th. Why? He was 23rd on the 2022 Big Board. Between 2013 and 2021 there were 45 guys between 21 and 25 on the Big Board, and in their 165 cumulative seasons they have 22 AA's. So call it a 13% to AA (and that is generous given that most of the 22 AAs happened after their first season). So, roughly 7 or 8 points max. The deficit is now 50.
What is realistic for AJ? On the plus side, he has a title under his belt. On the minus side, he has not wrestled in years, he is not enrolled, and he is reported to be much heavier than 197. So call him 0 to 20 points. Who knows? Now the deficit is 30 with some very rosy assumptions.
What is realistic for Kueter? Kueter comes in as a top 10 BB (#6), and these guys tend to have monster careers. Among these 90 athletes there are 9 who won it as freshmen. Of course, none of them skipped first semester in the room, but whatever. Let's say he has a 10% chance to win it all, he also has a 30% chance of never AAing (as has happened with 18 of the 60 who have finished their career). Is third a realistic ceiling? Not likely, but sure. That cuts the deficit to 17.
With a Brooks or Starocci injury now we are even.
All it took was to assume three wrestlers who are not currently part of the team (two not even enrolled in school), one of whom is actually practicing a different sport, to maximize their potential ALL AT THE SAME TIME (which is? an Iowa trait at NCAA's), and an injury to one of two specific wrestlers.
Well, you have me convinced.