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Are we counting redshirts? If not, as much love as some of PSU’s backups have gotten, I doubt they’d crack the top 20 or so (which of course is still impressive). Barraclaugh and Cochran look like they’d have a good shot at AA’ing, and maybe Evans, but that’s about it. But if you count redshirts you can add Facundo and Barr.

I’ll go: Spratley dec Ayala 3-0 OSU Fix maj Schriever 7-0 Woods dec Jamison 7-3 Williams dec Rathjen 10-3 Franek dec Travis 10-6 Olejnik dec Caliendo 13-6 Kennedy dec Thompson 13-9 Arnold dec Plott 13-12 Surber dec Glazier 16-12 Kueter FALL Doucet 18-16 Iowa

He’s kinda established himself as the favorite at this point yes, but he still has 3 NCAA losses

Good point, especially since most of the teams in the race for 2nd have a good 125

Also looks like it’s on Fubo for anyone that still has a free trial to use

I think kinda the opposite TBH. I doubt the winner of either the B12 or B10 tourney wins NCAA’s. These guys are so close that it’s going to be tough to beat guys multiple times in a row (unless they can somehow avoid them in the bracket), and because they’re so close, seeding won’t really matter. For example last year Ramos got majored by DeAugustino at B10’s. But then of course Ramos made the NCAA finals and DeAugustino went 1-2.

But you’re just proving the point that it is pretty common for guys to bump up from 197 (or lower in the case of Kasper) and do just as good or better at heavyweight…

Well similar to what I said earlier, I don’t necessarily think McKee should be ranked higher, but I don’t understand how there is such a big gap in the points system. Kaylor has good wins, but multiple bad losses. McKee’s only bad loss is Jordan and it was like the second week of the season. I think McKee would have a similar record to Kaylor with his schedule. I don’t see more than 6 or 7 possible losses on that list for McKee - Ayala, Spratley, Davis, Jordan, Volk, Provo - I don’t think he loses to more than 1, maybe 2 of the other guys but he also likely beats 1 or 2 from the first list.

In the sense that he shouldn’t actually be seeded 33 It was factored into rankings which was likely what gave him the edge in seeding

Davison was a 197 and Kasper was a 184…

Kaylor seems too high for a guy with 6 losses. Sorry I don’t like your algorithm lol

Alex Clemsen came pretty close:

Kasak looked pretty good against Lovett, I’d give him a better chance of winning than Nagao. Nagao beating 2 out of Vito/Fix/Crookham would be a miracle. But I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Truax won.

Nice work. Kinda crazy that Lachlan McNeil finished 4th at NCAA’s last year and will be no better than the 4 seed in a 6 team ACC. Is their seeding just a “coaches meeting” similar to the B10? 3-5 at 141 seems like it could be up in the air. Crook definitely ahead of McNeil, but are you putting Gioffre ahead of Crook because Crook didn’t wrestle the dual? And interesting that neither Gioffre or McNeil wrestled in the UNC/UVA dual, so would think McNeil could have an argument over Gioffre if non-ACC matches/national rankings are a consideration.

Starocci doesn’t really talk about it that I’ve seen, but his x/twitter bio says “God gives me everything.”

Except for maybe some stalling inconsistency at 133, I thought he did a good job. I don’t believe VT challenged at all, and there really didn’t seem to be complaining from the coaches.

Who said he wouldn’t be in top 16? He is just another in a long line of wrestlers to move up from 197 to HWT and do just as good or better, proving that there is no need for a weight between 197 & heavyweight

Bastida might have the best chance of beating Kerk, but still unlikely

Well whoever is seeded 33 at 125 could have a shot at winning

Honestly I just remembered I wrote in a different thread that I wouldn’t be shocked if they got 7. But then I did the math and the probability based on my own personal odds was like 0.1%, so I guess that “should” be shocking. But that was a few weeks ago and my odds for Bartlett and Haines would increase since then.

I would not be surprised to see 6 champs, in fact I bet many PSU fans will predict it. I think 7 or more would qualify as “shocking” though

How about if they get 7+ champs?

Well that would give him an extra match and artificially inflate PSU’s team score

Based on the seeding criteria, you may be right, as Kerk will have the coaches ranking (15%), but an undefeated Big 12 champ could have the quality wins (20%). Not sure about RPI though (10%). But I know they are able to override the formula sometimes.

174 is a little more top heavy to me. I’d be surprised if Arnold got higher than 4th at 174, I would not be surprised if he makes the finals at 184. I do think Kennedy 174/Arnold 184 is their best tournament team, but I don’t get paid the big bucks.