Greetings All,
After yesterday, what are everyone's thoughts as to how it should play out?
Here are mine:
If Georgia, Michigan, TCU, and USC win their conference championships, they should be the 1-4 in that order.
If one of them loses this is what I think:
- Georgia, they should still get in as the 2 or 3 and Michigan slide up to the 1. No outside team(s) would jump over a 1 loss Georgia.
- Michigan, they should drop to the 4, but not be jumped. I don't care if a 2 loss Alabama is 'better' when they lost twice. The Ohio State got clobbered at home in 'The Game' so no to them as well.
- TCU, I think a case can be made for TCU to drop out and either Alabama or the Ohio State jump them, but being a 1 loss team and having made their conference championship game makes it so I lean to them getting a mulligan for me maybe?
- USC, they undoubtedly drop out and no two loss non-SEC(Alabama) school is going to get in at this point. The question becomes which one? Alabama or the Ohio State? The B1G in me says tOSU, but the logical mindset in me thinks that if they say 'Who is better?' that they will select Alabama - justifiably so.
Of the four current favorites to make it, I believe that Georgia us the only lock. Even if they get blown out, I think they get in. If Michigan or TCU lose competitive back and forth matches, then they might - more Michigan than TCU, though, as Michigan has the recency bias if the tOSU victory going for them.
Prediction? I can't really make one - honestly. I think Michigan is the biggest lock to win of the four. TCU and USC have rematches. USC lose to Utah earlier this year and TCU beat Kansas State and it is hard to beat good teams twice. That gives me a gut feeling that USC will win and TCU will not. I think Georgia will win a slugfest, even if they don't win, like I said before, I think they are in.
So my thinking is this: If TCU us the only of the four to lose, then the Ohio State gets in. If they are comparing four 1 loss teams (Alabama abd tOSU as well as USC), then the lone 2 loss squad gets eliminated. Then they say yes to USC as the 3, having won their conference championship. They give tOSU the nod. Their loss to Michigan was closer than the score indicated. 1-UGA, 2-UofM, 3-USC, 3-tOSU.
If USC is the lone loser of the favorites, it essentially comes down ti Alabama and the Ohio State, in which I think they will favor Alabama. 1-UGA, 2-UofM, 3-TCU, 4-Bama
If USC and TCU lose, which is possible, I think this is most likely: 1-UGA, 2-UofM, 3-Bama, 4-tOSU
I think it ends up being TCU as the lone loser. 1-UGA, 2-UofM, 3-USC, 3-tOSU.
EDIT: My apologies for the ramble.