I think Cronin is better than “extremely low” probability, assuming he gets the 3 seed but I’m not sure if he will, it might be Noto. Interestingly Cronin has a common opponent advantage over him, but it’s Heinselman and I don’t think that will count?
If Cronin is opposite Lee, then Cassioppi should also be considered “extremely low” probability as I think they’re in a similar boat: arguably the #3 guy at the weight but a distant 3rd. But I’d honestly give Cronin a better shot at beating Glory than Cassioppi at beating either Parris or Kerk.