If I was running a casino I would definitely adjust the line lower at this point as more "money" has come in on Beard than Dean. I chose -2.5 initially because we have the presumption of a wrestleoff having occured, plus the rumor of a 1 point Dean win in the presumed wrestleoff. Then add in a Dean NC and you have to go higher. One guy won and one guy didn't. That has to count for something. And you can minimize the win by talking about favorable calls, but you cannot eliminate the win. Sure, we have the example of Cassar who didn't win the 197 spot against Rasheed, but then followed it up with a NC that included two wins against a generational talent to suggest that Beard can do the same. But until it happens, it hasn't happened.
Anyway, that was my reasoning for -2.5. But as I say, if I was running a casino I would drop that to -2 or maybe -1.5 based on current betting.