Crotalus

Can see it here. Lee was up 7-5 (plus riding time locked) and just relaxed at a bad time with 0:25 left and Ramos hit a really nice move. If Lee held off the pin for one more second it would have been an 11-8 win for Ramos.

If anyone is ready to relive this match.

Interesting all of these schools AA probabilities have gone up. Which schools probabilities have fallen off the most?

Awesome, thanks. Lines up pretty well with my eye test predictions.

But then how do you actually get Lee tired? Hope you're on top in the second and can ride him? He usually gasses himself with all the effort he put in to trying for a first period tech. If you don't engage he's not going to gas.

Mizzou had a pretty solid day 1 and went pretty much as expected. Surtin lost rd 1 in a mild upset (19 over 12) and Hawks pulled an upset (22 over 11) before losing a surprisingly tight match to Romero (5-3). Here's how I view the team's AA chances. 125 - Surtin - has a winnable next match in the consis against Trombley and then would likely face Stevo again (lost to him 11-4 in Big 12 finals). If he were to win that, he would face the loser of Courtney/Glory in the blood round. He will not AA. 133 - Brown - the only Mizzou guy already eliminated. 141 - Hart - will be an underdog against Woods in the quarters. If he does lose, he would face the winner of Carlson/Happel/Ervin/Titus (Carlson or Happel most likely). Great chance to AA. 149 - Mauller - has Parco in the quarters. Parco beat Mauller 3-2 earlier in the season. If he loses he would face the winner of Abas/Voinovich/Moore/Arrington (Abas most likely). I give him about a 50/50 chance to win one of these two tough matches to AA. 157 - Jaques - in the consis has Gilcher next. If he wins that, likely will face Ed Scott. I think he loses that match, but if he does win he would face the loser of Robb/Cardenas. He will not AA. 165 - O'Toole is the favorite over Kharchla, but to cover my bases, if he were to lose, he would face Hall/Heller/Cook/Olejnik and should easily AA. 174 - Mocco - has Labriola in the quarters. I expect him to lose that match. He would then face Pasiuk/DeVos/Eischens/Olmos (Olmos or Devos most likely) in the blood round. If he doesn't do anything stupid, he can win that match and AA. 184 - Hawks - wrestling pretty well so far. Has Hoose next in the consis and then would likely face Pinto. I think he loses that match, but if he wins he would face the loser of Keckeisen/Salazar. He will not AA 197 - R. Elam - will be the favorite over Smith (MD) in the quarters, but Smith appears to be wrestling pretty tough. If Elam were to lose he would face the winner of Hoffman/Dean/Harvey/Pentz (Dean most likely). That would obviously be a tough match against last years champ, but Dean seems to be slumping and would have Elam as the favorite. Great chance to AA. Hvy - Z. Elam - Facing Hendrickson in the quarters and I expect he will lose. He would then face the winner of Niesenbaum/Gordon/Goldin/McKiernan in the blood round. Not sure who wins that, but it will be a winnable match for Big Elam. I have claimed a few times that he can't break through that r12 barrier, but he has a decent chance to prove me wrong here. So six guys with a decent chance to AA. Two are near locks, the other four just need to pull off one tough win. Less than four AAs will be a disappointment, but all six would be a surprise.

It seems this is becoming a trend for 1 seeds at 165. It's also always the toughest weight in recent years, so no road to the finals is all that favorable.

I assume the grabbing of opponent's legs is making you crazy, too?

I'm sure he'll be a full 135 by Sat. night if (when) he makes the finals. I don't think it benefits him to take in much more than that, though. That would be a lot of water and food sitting in his stomach that his body won't have time to use if he gets too crazy in his attempt to refuel. He'll have plenty of time after to hit the buffet line.

Queue.

True, but you don't have to be all that big, fast, or strong to be bigger, faster, and stronger than Hamiti. Neither of these guys are near the top of the list in any of those three categories at 165. Hamiti wins the lankiest category, though. I certainly think Hamiti will wrestle a better match than he did in the All-star bout. But he likes to get into positions where O'Toole excels. The thing Carr has been able to do so well is stay incredibly patient when in on shots to keep Keegan out of those same funky Askren positions. I can't remember anyone finishing shots so methodically as Carr did in that first match.

We need medicine man with a Mastro Exotic meme.

True. But the odds makers aren't as dumb as the pundits, some of which were claiming the Raiders, Chargers, and/or Broncos would finish ahead if the Chiefs in the AFC West. It's those claims the Chiefs were reacting to, not some Andy Reid Jedi mind trick.

Fair points all around. The current 125 field after Glory doesn't appear to be any better, but Glory is a more formidable challenger to Lee than anyone in 2021. I believe that no NCAA bracket is truly "weak", but we can compare them relatively, and this year's 125 is lighter in competition than 2018, 2019, and 2022 (Suriano, Glory, Vito). But, guys like Lee also tend to make weights look less competitive than they may truly be.

It wasn't a fabrication. When Tyreek left, many of the pundits were saying the chiefs wouldn't even make the playoffs due to an underwhelming defense and and offense that only had Mahomes and Kelce.

That's why I said possibly. Courtney has apparently been dealing with an injury this year and some thought he would seek a medical RS. So I don't think him being 10th is because the competition is that much better than two years ago. But this year and 2021 are undoubtedly lacking in competition compared to the brackets Lee went through in 2018 and 2019.

They were doing all of this things just as consistently while people were complaining about their high seeds.

This is actually kind of an interesting topic. Is this the real Jimmy?

It's a matter of perspective, of course. For the 1 seed at 125, this is possibly the lightest NCAA competition-wise he's faced. If you're anyone else other than Glory, your mother wouldn't even bet on you to win the tournament. But being in the top 8 is within reach for a lot of guys. You can add in a Jr. World gold for Elam.

I feel the opposite about 197. I think it's possibly the deepest weight, alongside 165, or possibly even deeper. Last years champ is the 9 seed. With so many guys capable of winning it, whoever does will have gone through an absolute meat grinder. I don't think that sounds "easy" just because it's wide open.

What about number of returning All- Americans and their average finish?

I've concluded that everyone is the bad draw.

You can find examples of guys flopping at the tournament from any team. The previous year Lavallee was the 3 seed and made the finals. As a returning finalist the next year with 1 or so losses, he deserved a high seed. But guys in the MAC, or ACC, or even Pac 10, are generally going to have fewer losses than guys at a similar level in the Big 10. And that will result in inflated seeds. So yes, Mizzou, especially while in the MAC, often underperformed seeds. But I don't think they underperform realistic expectations. As a fan, I would argue they are frustratingly consistent. Always in that 5-10 range and never finding their way onto the podium.

Cael prefers to throw chairs when he disagrees with the call/outcome.