Let's start with the questions:
Will PSU break the all-time scoring record? In 1997 Dan Gable's Iowa team scored 170 points. But the scoring rules were different back then. Adjusted for today's advancement, placement, and bonus points the total would be 170.5. That is the easy adjustment. The more difficult adjustment is deciding what impact the 3 point TD might have had in 1997. My back of the envelope math puts it at +4.5 to +7 based on some assumptions about regular decisions that may have tipped to majors, and majors that may have become tech falls. The pinfalls remain the same. Now we have 175 to 177.5 as the new target for PSU. That means something like 55 to 57 bonus points. Hmmmm. Last year's team scored 19 bonus points (inserting Nagao for Bravo-Young) and would have scored 30 bonus points with the 3 point TD. Even with the additions this year I just cannot see it happening via the bonus point route. This is not a team of David Taylors. So to beat Iowa's point total (adjusted or otherwise) PSU will have to outperform their seeds. Yikes.
Is this the year of parity? Stay with me here. OK, so let's ignore that PSU is looking to more than double the second place total for a minute. The #2 through #10 teams are separated by only 14.8 points. Any of combination of these nine teams (and probably more) could round out the podium positions. Which three will it be? Based on pre-season rankings Cornell would join Nebraska and Michigan. Now it looks like Michigan, NC State, and Nebraska. More shake ups to come.
What will Iowa's lineup look like come the tournament and how will it impact the podium race? Right now Intermat has Kennedy at 174 and Arnold nowhere to be found. That seems likely to evolve as the season evolves. I have the feeling Arnold will be a factor somewhere, and with Iowa currently sitting in sixth position without him, they kind of feel like a podium team with him.
With apologies to @MPhillips, is it too early to talk about Ohio State's vaunted recruiting classes of 2019 and 2022? With two #1 ranked recruiting classes hitting at the same time I was a bit surprised to not see then among the top 10. Where for art thou? They came in at 11 on my list.
Notes:
I am only using Intermat rankings this year. Because reasons.
My projected points are based on the average points a given seed typically scores. Rather than assume that the one seed will score 20, I look at actual historical outcomes to account for the fact that sometimes the #1 seed does not win. In this way you can think of it as a probabilistic statement about points. On average a #1 seed only scores about 16.9 points. A lot, but not 20. This also means that wrestlers outside the top 8 get credit for some number of projected points.