Wrestleknownothing

Not saying that at all, and I am a lot confused how you came to that conclusion from what I said. I gave you two scenarios. The normal scenario, 1.1%, and the extreme scenario where everyone is equal, 3.1% (which, by the way, should have been 6.2% because you said make the finals and 3.1% is for winning the finals). So let's do this the other way around. What do you think Smith's probability is for making the final?

When I look at all of those I am struck by something. Both Flo and Intermat call them rankings, not ratings. Flo is very vocal about the rankings being achievement based. I think Intermat is the same, though nowhere near as annoying about it. If they use the same method they should get the same result. Which they do, for the most part, in the top 8 or 10. But anything below that is a total crap shoot. For example, Norman is either #16 or #29 at 174, and Abas is either #21 or #11 at 149, and Brennan is either #23 or unranked at 174. My conclusion is for all the lip service to rankings, these are only kinda, sorta rankings and kinda, sorta ratings. Really a blend.

OK, play that out. If everyone has an equal chance then that is 0.5^5 or 3.1%. If it is like history, it is 1.1%. So what are you looking for, 2%?

You did. But I was hoping to get a bit more detail.

It's not "history", it is history. Everyone wants to think things are different this time. Vegas makes a living off that belief. Just because there is no clear #1 at 125 does not mean everyone's odds are equal.

That is not my opinion. That is the history of guys who are seeded where they are ranked.

Very wrong

And don't forget Gomez and Destribats at 65.

Around 100 plus bonus. I assume they won every match by pinfall?

Feel free to change anything you like.

That will increase attendance at the Mat Town II Open.

Every year is a reload year. The nature of collegiate sports. And Iowa has been the clear second best team since 2010. And in Brands' Iowa tenure B.C. they were clearly top dog. And from 2007 - 2023 they have nothing to be ashamed of (or if they do, every other team save one has more to be ashamed of). And off the top of my head I will go with Austin DeSanto, Max Murin, Zach Glazier, Pat Lugo. I am sure there are a lot more.

Believe me, Glazier is number 1 in my heart for that, just not in my rankings (if'n I had rankings).

14-0 against D1. The nearest guys to him (Stephen Little and Louie DePrez) only have loses to guys above both of them. Meanwhile, Glazier's best wins are against Silas Allred and Garret Joles, who are below him. He has a shot to move up in the rankings Friday and again at B1G's.

Preview. So far we have 20 predictions from this board, 14 from HVI, and 6 from GIA. Not really surprising that the HVI guys our more than twice as willing to make a prediction. But what that really shows is it takes those two boards to equal our one.

I was thinking about calling out all the usernames with PSU, Iowa, Lion & Hawk in them that have not predicted. You stand accused.

Past predictors who have not presently predicted: @BerniePragle, @Gus, @Interviewed_at_Weehawken, @ionel, @Perry, @RandolphTJones, @1032004, @D3UC157, @FearTheTurtle, @fishbane, @Holtfan, @Nailbender, @Nittanychris, @PortaJohn. Prodigal predictors come home. No questions asked. We will kill the fatted calf.

You may want to read up on this https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imaginary_number

They have Arujau and Shapiro winning. Those were the two biggest deltas.

Wow, I had no idea how much wrestlestat loved Cornell.

I have them finishing 12th at 45 points, 13 points behind Lehigh. So, no.

Good thing I asked

You have Trump Derangement Syndrome.