Wrestleknownothing

125 18 DeAgustino 133 24 Chlebove 141 18 Matthews 149 26 Abas 157 19 Blaze 165 24 Buell 174 18 Pasuik 184 17 Feldkamp 197 21 Stout 285 21 Pitzer

Are there bet size limits on lines like this?

That puts them around 137 - 138 plus bonus. Short of the record, but well in front of second. Feels about right.

3.9% without Hutmacher. 0.02% with Hutmacher.

I can't believe you left Hutmacher off the list.

I didn't save them all early in the season. This is what I have:

Intermat had a subset of that

You are all winners in my book

Close, but not quite. Pitt finished second a couple times in the 50's(1954 and 1957), but they were in the EIWA at the time. Great point, an ACC team in secomd would be a big story.

8 Illini wrestlers won 10 titles after Marianetti, including one the same year in the next weight up (though I do not know the bout order that year).

I think you are reading that backwards. What it is saying is that the odds of exactly 7 are roughly the same as the odds of exactly 10. Conversely, the odds of exactly 8 or exactly 9 are higher than either exactly 7 or exactly 10. As for the odds of all 10, perhaps it is better to reframe the question. Based on the commercials I see for betting apps, they are pushing parlay bets HARD. If you were offered a ten wrestler parlay on PSU wrestlers all AAing for a 3:1 payout (i.e. better payout than 50% chance would suggest), would you find that attractive? Before you answer that question, remember that in the 8 AA era only one team has ever had all 10 wrestlers AA. And in those 44 years all of the #1 and all of the #2 seeds have AAed only 11 times. For me, I would want at least 20:1 to find that bet interesting.

I think the general consensus is Starocci will score more than a normal #9 seed and Davis will score less than a normal #1 seed, so maybe call it a push. But historically, PSU scores more than a normal any seed. So, maybe my overall estimate is a little low. As I like to say about predictions like these, they are all wrong but right on average.

Dropping Davis down to 60% (same as a #6 seed) and moving Starocci up to 98% (same as a #1 seed) puts the probability of all ten at 5.4%. Which is roughly equivalent to the probability they end with only 7 AAs. Said another way, 10 AAs is more likely than only 6.

That is very kind of you to say, especially given all you have done to promote college wrestling and preserve its history. Unfortunately, I am traveling for work Thursday and Friday and cannot attend. The good news, though, is I have arranged my schedule to maximize my TV viewing.

As for team balance, yes, I think it will be a historic year. There is just about nothing separating 3-11.

I have PSU at 7.64 AAs. Over simplifying the numbers, you could say that is a 64% chance of 8 and a 36% of 9. But you could as easily spread those probabilities across more possibilities, even from 0 to 10. That assumes wrestling to the average result (which is a little below seed). But as PSU has a history of wrestling to seed, And let's face it, Starocci's probability of AAing from the #9 seed is a tad higher than the normal 9 seed. But maybe Davis' probability should also be below a normal #1 seed. So, I think I talked myself back to 7.64 But if you want to give Starocci the bump, and not discount Davis, then the are highly likely to get 8 with a chance of 9. Next closest is NC State at 5.56 (i,e. 56% chance of 6, 44% chance of 5).

Kind of like holding in football? Its only illegal if you get caught.

You might be focused on Nagao's right arm. Check out his left.

Nah, I think it is safe to say he caught everyone by surprise.

I was thinking about how unlikely it is to have two true freshman as the 1 and 2 seed at a weight (125). Then I thought maybe it is not that big a deal if they were already a big deal, so I look at where they were on Willie's Big (Deal) Board. Turns out they came from well outside the top 15-20, which is where most champs come from, if I recall correctly. But Cade DeVos takes the cake for the most unlikely given where he was ranked coming out of high school. At least he has had some time to marinate in the SDSU room.

I like that one

that last stat is my favorite

Is Starocci's Cat in there, too?

All is forgiven, my son. I make no promises about forgotten.