Even without hindsight Spencer at -3000 was a bad bet. Many people on here and other outlets gave Glory a very real chance, using the caveat that Lee's health was an unknown. Ignore that at your pleasure, if you must.
As far as me saying three years, that is a stretch, however you are still ignoring that much of your rationale for a theoretical March 2021 series of matches is coming from a December 2018 match (21-18=3). Kolodzik had what would have been his best NCAA tournament in March of 2018 with a 3rd place fimish and based off results he regressed by March of 2019.
Add in tuat O'Connor, Sasso, Lugo, Mauller, etc all were showing drastic signs of improvement by that time as well.as several breakout performers and newcomers for 2021 in Lovett, Thomas, Parco, etc that provided 149 a certain amount if depth that it lacked since pre-Zain.
I agree Kolodzik might have won. That he would have been more heavily favored than Glory AND Monday? Nope.