Not sure how true this is, but I assume the rate of improvement for even the bluest blue chip rookies (true frosh and redshirts firt time in the lineup) is a little higher than 2nd, 3rd and 4or 4+ year wrestlers. Of course, while it seems like Fix has not gotten better, seems like VIto did later in his collegiate career.
A lot of the 1st year guys in the poll might be even closer to the top guys by March. I think we will get a few rookies in the semis - wehther or not they make the finals or win it will be close.