Wrestleknownothing

I know, I was just being a smartass. Apologies.

I think things tighten up a bit this year, but I also think the title is decided before Spencer Lee wrestles.

So who will score fourth most? Carr

Yianni

Did you just big time me?

Math tells me one thing. My heart tells me something else. I want to take the over on 4.5. This is why Vegas has been known to make a few dollars.

Based on 2010 - 2022 here are the win probabilities by seed: Applying those to this year's seeds we get the following expected number of champs. Who wants to take the under for PSU? It is only 9.8 because I lopped off all the non-zero win probabilities that round to 0.0 (12 schools)

Think about that (insert exclamation point here)

hmmm, you planned ahead to be a wpos? I may need to re-think my strategy, it happens organically for me.

These years are their last year, not their freshman year, but too late to edit

look up

Two of four timers who won as a freshman in the upper half of weights (I am not 100% sure this is complete): 1993 Markus Mollica 158 (current 165) 1994 Mark Branch 167 (current 174) 2021 Carter Starocci 174 (2 of 4 and maybe more) 2021 Aaron Brooks 184 (2 of 4 and maybe more)

Three of four timers who won as a freshman in the upper half of weights: 1950 Bill Nelson 155 (current 165) 1950 Dick Hutton UNL 1983 Ed Banach 190 1997 Lincoln McIlravy 150 (current 157) 2005 Greg Jones 184 2006 Jake Rosholt 197 2017 J'Den Cox 197

After I hit send I was wondering if anyone would point this out.

You are not wrong. He has said that. Something I sometimes think about is if Starocci wins four in a row, then comes back for a fifth bite at the apple, but does not win, how does that affect his legacy? Humans are not good at ignoring something they know.

I guarantee it

Will it be full of upsets? Or will it going according to chalk (love that expression)? In the 8 or more seed, 8 place era (1979 to present), the number of AAs that come from the top 8 seeds has been trending higher. Clearly, the seeding process has gotten better/more accurate over time. But there is a lot of volatility around that trend. By this measure, last year was a relative down year for top 8 seeds i.e. good for upsets. But 2022 was also a year of the top dog. Every champion was either a #1 seed or a #2 seed. That has only happened three other time since 1979. I guess 2022 was a barbell year. A lot of upsets for #3 - #8, but domination from the top 2. So what is it going to be? A lot of upsets? Or a year of coronations of the kings? Or some from the left column and some from the right column?

This has been a head scratcher for me too. So little discussion of a guy going for his fourth title. But, he has the misfortune of doing it at the same time as another guy going for his fourth title who has been significantly more dominant throughout the process.

Yes

Little known fact: pinfest is a contraction of pinfall is best.

Thanks for this. I mistakenly highlighted Jim Woods as OW in 1974, but he was the Gorian winner, not OW.

My grandfather was a coal miner in eastern PA, but he can't be talking about me, right?