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It’s his 6th year. Going to be pretty common for guys that wrestled in 2021 and had taken a redshirt.

I just looked into Harris’s wrestlestat, I think you’re right, might have to bump that to a fall for Miller and a 19-19 tie

How many matches do you have Penn winning?

Looks like wrestlestat seems to be under the assumption that Nelson is not wrestling this season?

Even if he wasn’t injured, Ayala would be redshirting. The new rule allowing redshirts to wrestle some attached matches is only for true freshmen. So assuming Lee is coming back at some point, we won’t be seeing Ayala in any duals.

Several guys appear to be out for Iowa, I think Penn has a chance. Probables: https://pennathletics.com/news/2022/11/25/15th-ranked-wrestling-heads-to-2-iowa-for-first-dual-meet-of-the-season.aspx My predictions: 125: Miller maj Harris 4-0 Penn 133: Colaiocco dec Schriever (tossup?) 7-0 141: Ferrante dec Bennett 10-0 149: Murin dec Zapf (tossup) 10-3 157: Artalona dec Rathjen/Siebrecht 13-3 165: Kennedy dec Revano 13-6 174: Incontrera maj Rhodes 17-6 184: Assad maj Hale 17-10 197: Warner dec Urbas 17-13 285: Cassioppi fall Goldin 19-17 Iowa Could come down to Murin/Zapf and/or bonus 3 PM on B10+

Weird that you’re leaving an NCAA champ and 2x finalist out of this comparison

Well the 8 seed did win the title at that weight the prior 2 years…

Also I’m pretty sure there were people saying “I don’t think Carr loses another match in college” after his first title. Obviously a lot can can happen in 3 years. I don’t really recall that conversation about Tomasello though. He had 4 losses the year he won

I would definitely lean O’Toole because Carr is bumping up. But I’d be surprised if he majors him

I’m not sure your argument, are you saying a 64% bonus rate isn’t good, particularly for a second year wrestler? He had 9 regular decisions out of 25 matches. 4 of those were at NCAA’s. Other than the 6-5 finals match, he outscored those other 3 opponents 13-0. In total of his 9 regular decisions, 2 were by 7 points, 2 were by 6, and 1 was by 5. The only match he won by less than 4 points outside of NCAA’s was against previous AA Wittlake. He also had 7 pins. And all of his matches were against D1 competition. Carr was 20-0 with 4 pins and a 65% bonus rate in 2021…except 5 of his wins were against non-D1 (2 pins and 3 techs). So 13/20 = 65%, but remove those 5 and it’s 8/15 = 53%.

Looks like 64% was the highest bonus rate among last year’s champs except for Steveson and Suriano (and Suriano only had 16 matches)

I was more referring to his age. And I said I’m not sure if he majors Carr. I think he beats him though.

Bonusing Carr may be a slight exaggeration but I don’t think it’s that bad of a take. He was 25-0 with a ton of bonus as essentially a redshirt freshman. Would be cool to see him bump up to take on Starocci in a year or two (assuming Starocci doesn’t bump to 184 after Brooks graduates).

Sorry, was thinking Johnson lost too (although I know still wouldn’t be round robin losses). So are you saying you think Johnson should be #1?

Yes but usually when you have round Robin losses like that they kinda get thrown out and you go back to the starting point, which was Yianni #1

Yeah I think I’d definitely put Millner over Henson (although to be fair seems those were predictions not rankings). I’m OK with Yianni staying #1 due to Gomez losing.

Ok, so he may have won the vote, doesn’t mean he “should have” won the vote

I’d think all of the following would be “big names” that would have to lose for Yianni to win Lee (or wrestle less than like 10 matches) RBY or Fix O’Toole or Carr Starocci Brooks Don’t see that happening

How did Steveson win it fair and square? He only wrestled 5 more matches than Lee, had a lower bonus rate and less pins (1 vs 5). The NCAA finals was Lee’s only match without bonus.

Are we sure he is? And IIRC a decent chunk of his back points are feet to back. I’d give him a B+ on top.

Yianni isn’t going to win it with a loss

Would you take any specific individual (other than Lee) over O’Toole?

I’d agree with Vak here, if not Lee then I’d probably put O’Toole as the next most likely based on projected bonus rate (and the level of competition at 165 having 2 other NC’s). But probably not too far ahead of the likes of Brooks, RBY and Starocci so I’d probably need pretty good odds on O’Toole vs. the field

I doubt that’s the case, but I have no firsthand knowledge