Wrestleknownothing

Shoulda used that in school. "Jokes on you, teacher. I didn't get the math wrong, I was just trolling the numbers."

It has almost happened 12 of the last 22 tournaments, including last year. If only it was horseshoes or hand grenades.

#7 seeds who took 1st #1 seeds who took 8th

Yes, he was ranked #1 on Flo until mid November, on Intermat and Wrestlestat he was #1 until he lost his first bout of the year on January 8 to Jordan Titus.

I saw that too. Maybe his middle name is tech? Joe Tech Pins.

How did we not know this? NCAA Most Dominant Leaders through 2/26/24

My kingdom for the data

I do not think there is discretion by the selection committee. At least the document describing the process does not refer to it. For example: "The pre-allocations will be determined by using a sliding scale of the three standards while never going below the base of .700 winning percentage, Top 30 Coach Rank and Top 30 RPI Rank reaching up to the maximum of 29 wrestlers per weight class." From: 2023-24 NCAA DIVISION I WRESTLING CHAMPIONSHIPS SELECTION CRITERIA GRID (UPDATED February 12, 2024)

This is what before and after looks like: Take the lower left green box in the left picture (raw data). It represents 1 wrestler at #25 who AA'd in 1 of the 4 years that ranks went to 33 (2.5%). Does that mean that every four years we should expect to see that? Or is it more likely that we will see something similar every ten years or so (1%), or more (<1%)? If the later then the expectation would be that as time passes, we are more likely to see one #24, or one #26 achieve AA than another #25. The fitting process assumes the latter and accounts for this by effectively treating AA as a category rather than eight separate categories. The other thing it achieves is to fill in more obvious discontinuities. For example, no #7 seed won between 2010 and 2023. Does that mean a #7 seed has no chance to win? Not likely given that winners have come from #8, #9, #11, and #13 seeds in that time. And no #1 seed busted out in the blood round in my sample, but two busted out before in the round prior to the the blood round. So a 13-16 exit for a #1 seed is certainly possible, and on the right it is filled in.

2019. It has only been four tournaments.

And that is number two. Well done.

Very good

Tirapelle was 2005. Remember, this data only goes back to 2010. So now who are your guesses?

I will give you some hints. Both guys sustained injuries and medical forfeited out after losing on the top side. One was recent, one was not.

It must be Pinfall

Indeed I am, but I was just a glimmer in my mother's eye when the fire started. And my grandfather, a coal miner in the region, and maybe in that mine, had long since shuffled off his mortal coil.

Last time I was there, there were only 2 or 3 houses left. The government had bought everything else and tore it down. The few houses left used the government payments to put brick buttresses on the side of their row houses to keep them upright after the row houses on either side had been torn down. That was a long time ago.

I am open to ideas. Another thought would to expand it to ten picks, one per weight.

which reminds me... Caleb Smith now has a 2.9% chance of making the final.

Quality stuff. Thank you.

You just gave me an idea for a new contest. Call it The Dark Horse Race. Or the Dark Horse Derby? Whatever. We have time to workshop that. Rules: After the seeds come out, pick four wrestlers seeded 17 or below to AA. Points awarded for the difference between their seed and their finish. (I will work out something for finishes in a range). Bonus points of some sort for an actual AA.

Nah, @jajensen09 is legit. He is just aaaaaaaaaallllllllllll the way in on his Huskers.

Built in excuse

But you quoted a stat to make the case for why it is exciting.

All @jajensen09 needs is to be right. Using his PSU and Nebraska scenarios above, Neb scores about 95 plus bonus while PSU gets about 78 plus bonus.