Wrestleknownothing

@CHROMEBIRD pointed out that confident and wrong are traits shared by posters on this board and AI. It is so hard to know anymore.

How many years of eligibility did those guys get?

answered

Reminded me of a college favorite / Chicago institution.

Indeed. It is the coin of this realm.

Keeping rates near zero is not what caused inflation. Inflation is a monetary problem. The growth in money supply (particularly M2) is what caused inflation. That is tied directly to pandemic spending. Similarly, raising rates will only do so much to curb inflation. Addressing money supply issues is the only real sure way to cure inflation. There is some good news on that front.

Mike Honcho

Nice.

That is called the FREE space

You want to say it at NCAAs. You NEED to say it at NCAAs. pinfall, Pinfall, PINFALL. As an aside, I had a chuckle the other day when I was watching either a Jason Nolf or a Bo Nickal highlight video. I had to rewind to make sure I heard it right, but sure enough, Christian Pyle said pinfall. And who among us do not aspire to be like CP?

Is what a hacker would say.

I believe I am 51st

ChatGPT is not a person.

People?

That's nothing. There are guys on here who think pinfall is a foreign language.

One area that has the potential to get very messy is collateral. Treasuries are used as collateral for every kind of trade everywhere in the world. If interest payments are missed it does not affect the ability to move Treasuries (i.e. post them as collateral), but if a principal payment is missed the issue is removed from FedWire (i.e. cannot be used as collateral). Another collateral based issue is that many systems will not allow defaulted bonds to be used as collateral (they have a price for collateral purposes of zero). Most large institutions have war gamed these scenarios (after all this artificial debt ceiling silliness has been around for a long time), and hopefully have the protocols in place to handle this. But what happens if a smaller participant trips up on this? Or what happens if the war gaming missed a scenario? No one really wants to find out.

I quoted one above. JP Morgan.

Very doubtful. Argentina has very famously defaulted (and not a technical default) multiple times. Yet they were able to issue a 100 year maturity bond just 1 year after their last default. The US is still the best credit available. As a matter of fact, you should not be surprised if the prices on Treasuries goes UP in the event of a default. As counter-intuitive as that seems that is what has happened in past debt ceiling crises as "flight to quality" causes people to buy more Treasuries in the face of a Treasury default. From JP Morgan: "but in the unlikely event of a technical default, we think Treasury yields would decline and the curve would steepen. This seems unusual in the context of a default, but Treasuries have rallied into the latter stages of other serious debt ceiling debates in 2011 and 2013."

Though Social Security does flow through the Treasuries cash account. I am not sure what legal restriction they face.

The issue is that not enough money will be taken in to pay all obligations: interest payments, principal payments, and other bills (there are 100 separate withdrawal sources on the Daily Treasury Statement - also FICA is the largest deposit on a normal day). So, choices would be made on which payments to make. A default is still possible in that case. The Treasury had $636 billion of cash on hand at the start of the year. It had $57 billion as of May 19. BTW, I was able to confirm that there are no cross default provisions for Treasuries. So the Treasury can selectively default, or selectively miss interest payments without it affecting other bonds.

These ChatGPT things always crack me up, but I absolutely love them. We tested it at work with an options strategy that is fairly common. It got it hilariously, but very confidently, wrong.

Jimmy Crapcorn? Jimmy John? Jimmy Thunderbox?

And who the hell is Nicky Lee?

I'm more disturbed than baffled.