57kg: Spencer Lee capable of winning gold if he is his best self. He will need to get through some land mines though. Uguev extremely tough and the defending Olympic Champ. Abakarov rock solid defense, may be a tough matchup for Lee. Micic's run at WC's last year cannot be ignored, even though I would favor Lee if they end up wrestling each other. Spencer has the par terre dominance which is the wild card and flip matches in his favor if he can get the TD. Hopefully he gets a decent draw that allows him to reach the semis at the very least.
65kg: Would be a surprise if Zain wins gold given depth at this weight. Amazoud, Tevanyan, Mamedov, Aliev, Tumur Ochir all tough outs. Ideally Zain draws into Rivera's quarter of the bracket. Zain certainly capable of medaling as his style can wear on guys during the course of a match. Also tough in par terre like Spencer Lee when he whips that cross-face and starts getting turns.
74kg: Expecting a Dake-Sidakov final, though there are some other Russians that could cause problems. Takatani also gave Dake a close match last year at World's. Would give Sidakov slight edge in final over Dake based on only H2H result, though I think Dake is our smartest wrestler and could see him making adjustments necessary to win gold.
86kg: Lots of unknowns at the moment. 1) Will Brooks be cleared to wrestle? If so, I think he gets gold. 2) Will Yazdani be repping Iran? Rumors of injury that could force Iran to go with a different rep, most likely Ghasempor. 3) Who will Russia send? Kadiev just won Russian nationals but Naifanov still a possibility. Dauletbekov is another formidable opponent that Brooks (or USA rep) may see early on.
97kg: Snyder a good bet to medal. Gold will be difficult given Tazhudinov’s quick rise. Also need to monitor the status of Sadulaev or whoever Russia ends up sending. Azarpira owns a recent win over Snyder, though I’d take Snyder in a rematch. If Snyder and Tazhudinov meet in gold medal match, Snyder will need to be very calculated with his attacks and try to use his pace to get deep into the match and wear down Taz.
125kg: Parris a decent bet to medal, gold would be a surprise. Mason had a good showing last year at WC’s getting bronze. The problem I see with his path to gold is that he narrowly lost to Petriashvili at WC’s who then got teched by Zare. He also lost to Masoumi at the Zagreb who then lost to Zare (again). Tough to see how Mason beats Zare again, though crazier things have happened.