GrandOlm

I think we are already there with Freestyle. 57 kg: Akbarov, Micic, RBY 65 kg: Musukaev, Islam Dudaev 74: Tsabablov, Kadz, Salk 86 kg: Myles, Osman, Kurugliev 97: Taz, Magomedov To name a couple . And these are people winning medals, they have no actual connection to the wrestling systems in the countries they rep.

I think it's unequivocably true. You would never see an adult athlete from another sport pick up tennis and then win Wimbledon a couple years later. Some sports are just more skill based, others require just more in general athleticism and body types.

His seemingly inhuman strength. Rulon compared it to wrestling a draft horse. But it was also his downfall. Karelin's game was built around the 5 point suplex. Once he lost his great strength due to aging and injuries, he was no longer the same wrestler and needed to retire.

Poland? They're okay. It's not a wrestling nation (it never was), I don't know how technical they can actually be with the ever more limited participants and coaches. I think they placed in the top 10 not that long ago. Not as good as they used to be. I think their last great wrestler was Wronski and he grew up under communism. All the formerly pretty good continental European countries (except Hungary) have declined significantly since the fall of communism. Combination of high emigration, low birth rates, abolishment of the draft. Kyrgystan, Iran, Azerbajan have all lept frogged from. Probably just through just increasing youth participation and specialization.

This general sports transferability theory is nonsense. It only holds some truth in sports to the extent that the sport overlaps in the types of movements and actions performed. The only positions that correlate to a notable degree with wrestling are linemen (for heavyweights). Gable is short for a lineman, that's the only position he would be going for. Coon failed at it, why exactly would Gable be better? Just because he's a better wrestler? Karelin was unexceptional at multiple sports that he tried as a kid (and this is among just among normal local peers who were never on a pro track ) and I think he turned out to be pretty good at one sport in particular.

Look at Bulgaria. They went from the second best Greco nation on earth by miles for decades to now they only qualified two wrestlers. None of them ethnic Bulgarians. One a straight up mercenary who has nothing to do with Bulgaria and only left as an adult because he couldn't make his own countries team and the other also possibly learned his wrestling elsewhere. Sweden used to be the best Greco country in the world (before WW2) and now they don't even have one qualifier.

FS All 6 are medalist level. None are the favorites for gold. I think Spencer, Brooks, and Dake all have the level to potentially win gold. Snyder and Mason are a level below the gold crowd. Saudlaev has owned the rivalry with Snyder. Also landmines in Taz and whoever Iran sends. Mason lost to Geno and Masoumi. Both guys have been beaten soundly by Zare. I think Akgul would be a harder match for Mason than even Geno. I'm not sure about Zain. 65 has a lot of parity and I could see him bombing out or doing really well. Greco - 0 None of them are medalist level imo. That doesn't necessarily mean that they can't get one, but it would require dream draws or completely anomalous performances. Jacobson - Nothing to suggest he is anything but at fill the bracket level. Rau - He is 33 already and was never close to medaling. I think Aleskanjan, Saravi, whoever Russia sends, beat him comfortably. And he can take a loss from whoever in the field. Coon - I think Semenov and Lopez (if he feels like it) destroy him. Riza, Amin, should beat him comfortably. There are some really good wrestlers in Greco not going from Europe. The US is really fortunate they have pan ams to qualify.

Spencer has a recent interview where he said his original goal was to win 4 ncaa titles and 12 olympic/world gold medals. I'm not exactly sure what the significance of 12 was to him, three olympic cycles or be the most decorated freestyle wrestler in history plus +2? Those were his plans, starting at 25 and all his injuries were not something he factored in back when he set them. From the way he spoke in the interview, I think he did care about being the most decorated freestyle wrestler at one point. Whether he sees that as feasible anymore (probably not)? My gut feeling is he'll want to complete one olympic cycle and then take stock again. I think his short term goal is be a world and olympic champion at least once.

I don't think any of the Americans are the on paper favorites for Gold (you can make an argument for Brooks but that's giving a lot of transitive property accomplishments to him). I'd say 57, 65, and 125 are the beat the field weights where there are a couple medal contenders who could win gold. 86 and 97 have a final boss that is in a different tier from everyone else. 74 is in between. (Sidakov is the unanimous favorite but he does take losses and has really close matches sometimes).

I don't think 57 kg has a final boss the way 86 or 97 kg do. Spencer will need to beat the field, anyone of them can give him a tough match, just like Zou. I don't think there is some big step up in level, just more of them.

I don't think any of the guys left in the Olympics will do well. Jacobson is US domestic level, in the modern US greco era. He is just part of the field, there to be a climb the ladder win for the medalists. Rau is so basic. And he's old. I saw him talking about learning par terre defense, at an age when a lot of wrestlers retire. 97 kg has pretty stratified tiers. I think any of the tier 1 wrestlers should tech him and tier 2 types beat him comfortably. Coon has the luckiest silver medal of his generation, but he has been part time greco with his failed nfl stint. It matters less at 130 kg but still. He overwhelmed with his size and strength in that dream draw run, but most of those types of people have been weeded out at the olympics. I think Semenov destroys him again if they meet. He'd need a dream draw again, be at his best form, and to wrestle someone like Alin for bronze to get a medal. All three are low ceiling types (unlike past games with G'Angelo). It would be more exciting if there was a low floor high ceiling competitor.