I think your tiers are accurate but I think some of tier 3 is a little overrated except for Slavikouski and Elam. Feldman is unproven and small at this level. Bastida is small for 285. Big boys could gas him from top position. I think a few guys from the tier below could be there.
But let's talk about Nevills since that started the conversation. I admit I was being a little cheeky about him being a semi-finalist. But I wouldn't be surprised if he does. This is why I think he's underrated:
1. He's a big 285. Big as in length and meat.
2. He's extremely athletic for a man of his size.
3. He had some not great losses (Catka/Houghton) in 2022, but he was playing football full-time that year.
4. He has experience wrestling great competition in the Big 10. He's wrestled Steveson/Cass/Parris and Kervliet in the room.
5. He has the pedigree not only in the family, but he was a 4 time California State Champ. He was arguably the best out of the family.
Of anyone in the 285 field that could overachieve, he is my #1 pick. This is his first chance at wrestling a full season. That's my rationale.