maligned

A couple of matches at the Albanian senior event this past weekend that caught my eye: #5 (at 57kg) Abakarov of Albania was up at 65kg and beat Okorokov, who will represent Australia at the Olympics, 3-2, in the final. Okorokov used to be a 57kg like Abakarov. I'm guessing Zain wouldn't have big problems with Okorokov, but he's a real opponent, unlike some qualifying out of the Africa/Oceania path. New Albanian Olympian, Chermen Valiev, struggled a bit, 6-4, with the Moldovan, Diacon, who hasn't done much at the senior level. Valiev's results continue to be "enough," but not on a Sidakov or Dake level, I don't think.

Having lived in France for a while and knowing the culture of it, I'm fine with it for a France-hosted Olympics as a nod to the local culture. It's just another way of showing incredible athleticism through choreographed movements according to specific judging standards--no different from gymnastics, figure skating, bmx street, snowboard halfpipe, etc. It's just one we haven't been exposed to as a bona fide sport.

Definitely non-Olympic ONLY this year in October. Four weights for all three styles. And this definitely only happened once before--in 2016. In 2020 there was obviously nothing--neither Olympics nor Worlds--so in 2021 they did both the Olympics plus a 10-weight Worlds to make up for it. Before 2016, there were always 7+ weights in freestyle and Greco at the Olympics, so nothing like this was deemed necessary.

In 2016, I think they used the Farrell as a "qualifier" for the non-Olympic WTTs. Not sure what they'll do to decide who can compete this time. Nothing's published, which is odd when they've known far in advance this event will happen. Just a guess...Olympic reps not eligible, obviously; anyone who wrestled OTTs is eligible; and they hold a last-chance qualifier to hand out 3 to 5 more bids per weight. Whatever the case, they did 2 days last time for the WTTs: Day 1 Challenge Tournament and Day 2 Best-of-3 Finals. I'm guessing all normal procedures would apply. Vito and Zahid would advance to the Finals--and DT gets a bye to the Challenge semi's at 79 or 92

FWIW, at the U20 event where those 3 matches are from, Bouzakis teched the Macedonian that pinned Sakamoto. Bouzakis took bronze and the Macedonian was 5th.

To add to the above info: Israel hasn't had a male wrestler at the Olympics since 3 greco athletes in 2000 and 2004. In 2000, they didn't qualify athletes in the same weights. In 2004, they both took second in close losses in their pools or they would have faced each other in Greco 84kg. No way to know if the Iranian took his pool loss on purpose.

I think there are only 4 of these boycott wrestling forfeitures on record and none at the Olympics. Iran's sporting leadership received a firm reprimand by the IOC chairman in 2019 that any continued forfeitures would result in a banning of Iran from all sports at the Olympics. Iranian media based outside Iran reported in the lead-up to the 2020/21 Games that Iran's internal adjusted plan was simply not to send any athlete that had an Israeli in their group or bracket in whichever sport, "even if it's Hassan Yazdani." No forfeits or protest non-appearances happened at the Games, but the policy obviously continued with the little Yazdani forfeiture to Finesilver in 2022. Israel didn't manage to qualify any wrestlers for the 2024 Games.

Olympic wrestling schedule: August 5: Coon & Elor, early rounds August 6: Coon & Elor, repechage and medals Rau & Hildebrandt, early rounds August 7: Rau & Hildebrandt, repechage and medals Jacobson & Parrish, early rounds August 8: Jacobson & Parrish, repechage and medals Lee, Brooks, Maroulis, early rounds August 9: Lee, Brooks, Maroulis, repechage and medals (3 golds today?!?) Dake, Parris, Miracle, early rounds August 10: Dake, Parris, Miracle, repechage and medals Retherford, Snyder, Blades, early rounds August 11: Retherford, Snyder, Blades, repechage and medals

People are acting like Sadulaev is probably going. What haven't I heard? Or is it just assumptions of what Russian power/money will cause to happen?

All very valid points. "International senior-level" inexperience is what I meant for Lee. I think it's possible he'll face a few more dangerous style/athleticism learning moments like the Zou 4-pointer. Guys like Micic and Gilman have gotten those out of their system and will rarely be caught off guard like that.

I'd take about 5-10 percentage points off of 57 (because of inexperience and struggles on defense against the ultra-fast guys), about 25 off of 65 (because of a loaded, loaded field with athletic types like Ochir that are Zain's kryptonite), and 10 off of 97 (because of bracketing). That would leave us at about 4.55 or 4.6. And I've said I think 4.5 would probably be a Vegas over/under for our medals. Snyder's bracketing situation is a little concerning. He and Tazhudinov will be separated, but the savvy Zhabrailov and Azarpira (who is young and rising and just beat Snyder recently) will be randomly drawn in because of lack of ranking points. That means there's a 23% chance he'll have both of those guys plus Magomedov on his side and a 77% chance he'll have at least one of them plus Magomedov. Because of that, the landmines are enough that I'd put his medal chances overall at 90% instead of 99%.

You're right that many of those qualified will take ORS's--but that feels like standard operating procedure. But I feel like non-standard moves like taking a 2nd olympic year off if it comes up, taking big chunks of time away from the college season to prioritize freestyle events and prep, or choosing a college weight that prioritizes non-college results are all the exception rather than the norm.

Olympic qualifier tallies by nation are listed below. We ended up with 26 nations having 5+ qualifiers total, and all 3 styles had 16 nations with at least 3 qualifiers in that style. There were 17 nations with at least one qualifier in all 3 styles and 17 more nations with wrestlers qualified in 2 styles. TOTAL (5+), 26 nations: AIN (Russia): 16 United States: 15 Japan: 13 Azerbaijan: 12 AIN (Belarus): 11 China: 11 Egypt: 11 Iran: 11 Turkey: 11 Cuba: 10 Kyrgyzstan: 10 Algeria: 8 Mongolia: 8 Kazakhstan: 7 Uzbekistan: 7 Canada: 6 Georgia: 6 India: 6 Nigeria: 6 Armenia: 5 Bulgaria: 5 Germany: 5 Hungary: 5 Moldova: 5 North Korea: 5 Serbia: 5 FREESTYLE (3+), 16 nations: Azerbaijan: 6 AIN (Russia): 6 United States: 6 Iran: 5 AIN (Belarus): 4 Egypt: 4 Georgia: 4 Japan: 4 Puerto Rico: 4 Albania: 3 China: 3 Cuba: 3 Kazakhstan: 3 Kyrgyzstan: 3 Mongolia: 3 Uzbekistan: 3 GRECO (3+), 16 nations: Egypt: 6 Iran: 6 Algeria: 5 Azerbaijan: 5 Cuba: 5 AIN (Russia): 5 AIN (Belarus): 4 Kazakhstan: 4 Kyrgyzstan: 4 Turkey: 4 Armenia: 3 China: 3 Japan: 3 Serbia: 3 United States: 3 Uzbekistan: 3 WOMEN (3+), 16 nations: Japan: 6 United States: 6 China: 5 India: 5 Mongolia: 5 Nigeria: 5 AIN (Russia): 5 Turkey: 5 Canada: 4 North Korea: 4 AIN (Belarus): 3 Ecuador: 3 Germany: 3 Kyrgyzstan: 3 Moldova: 3 Romania: 3

I really like all 6 guys' quality, for sure. We haven't had a group entering the Olympics in the last few cycles where the guy with the worst odds for medaling (Zain) probably has a 40% chance or better to get hardware. With that said, it's been a couple cycles since we've had zero gold medal favorites. Our floors are higher, but our ceilings are probably a little lower with this group. I'm guessing an objective oddsmaker would put our medal over/unders at 1 for gold and about 4.5 for medals. That would mean a gold from Lee/Dake/AB, four or five medals total, and one or two disappointed guys losing to a world-class dynamic performance at an in opportune time. As a fan, though, I definitely think 6 medals and a couple golds are possible.

No college kid or college coach thinks this way. Not practically anyway. They may value medals in their minds, but they won't change college schedules or training programs or redshirts to adapt to prioritizing a freestyle career except in very rare cases. (i.e. Trials minus Vito, minus Carr, minus O'Toole, injured/limited Starocci--even in an Olympic year)

One takedown in each match resulting in +38 point differential from 4 takedowns (9.5 per takedown).

He'll basically have to wrestle a match an hour for 4 hours. Alibeg is about Sacultan's level. Not a big threat. So I expect Zain wont be super exhausted from high-leverage situations going into Kudiev. I'd favor him there too. I also think he'd be fine in the winner-take-all True 3rd with his opponent having wrestled recently too. But facing a fully rested Sujeet while coming off 12 recent minutes of wrestling feels concerning. I'd take Zain straight up, but facing any top 20 guy in that disadvantaged state will be a serious test.

Ha, touché..you called that one. I was more suggesting it would be a better match than Kudiev, and that him struggling to score against Jalolov wasn't his identity. But I should have predicted he, like everyone, wouldn't score on Ochir. I was closer to guaging Ochir/Kudiev, so we'll call it even.

Ironically (or incidentally), he's out because of two other transplants like himself--one of whom (Rassadin) was also once a 57kg national teamer for his native country way back in the day. (Although it was 55kg for Chamizo.)

Weigh-in 7:30. Repechage at 3p local.

Tomorrow's schedule: Weigh-in 7:30am local time (12:30am ET) Alibegov: approximately 3:10pm local time (8:10am ET) Kudiev: approximately 9am ET Sujeet: approximately 10am ET True 3rd match: approximately 11:20am ET Killer day. But every match is winnable.

Awesome!! Hopefully another day of following a few matches!

Or allowed to compete. So much bizarre control stuff for their sports. I'll always remember the 2010 World Cup where they brought a cheering section, but they used a conductor in front of their section to tell them when to stand and sit and cheer and be quiet. Also, they didn't televise their first match against Brazil back in North Korea live because they were afraid they'd be shamed. Then they played great and only lost 2-1, so they "allowed" the next match (Portugal) to be broadcast live in North Korea. Portugal smashed them, 7-0. Ha Wouldn't be shocking if a potential appearance by Han hit some sort of North Korean self-inflicted snag.

WOW!! What's crazy is that Egorov and Kalzhan are capable of beating Zou the Chinese that gave Spencer such a fight. But he totally blitzes them. Awesome!!

Zain needs help from Ochir and then would have to run a gauntlet tomorrow. It's not looking great. Agree...I like Ochir today and I like Zain in any one of his potential matches tomorrow--but for all 5 things to go right consecutively, it will have to be a perfect run.