Yeah, I think Carter cuts weight to 174lbs. I don't think it's so bad he can't do it but I think the real reason he went 86kg at the trials is because with his injury he couldn't make 74kg. If he was healthy I think we would have seen him at 74kg for the trials and I think he would have weighed a decent bit under 174lbs for the weekend in preparation.
But, I think all of your points here are valid and he moves up at least one weight but most likely two. Him moving to 197lbs makes room for Barr and Facundo.