NCAA Tourney Projections Based on Rankings - Nebraska Edition

[Wrestleknownothing]

With apologies to @jajensen09 here are the updated NCAA tournament projections based on individual rankings per ranking service:

Sadly Nebraska is still outside the top 4 in all three services based on expected advancement and placement points (reminder: expected points are based on actual points scored by seed from 2010 - 2022 and rankings are treated as seed projections).

The difference between my methodology and the ranking services' methodology is that the ranking services all over value a top 8 seed and undervalue seeds 9 through 33. Their methodology assumes the only wrestles who will score are those that are in the top 8, which is just not realistic (but it is easy).

Now for the good news for Nebraska. They are up and coming. Depending on who you ask they are the second or third most improved team since the pre-season.

[jajensen09]

10 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

With apologies to @jajensen09 here are the updated NCAA tournament projections based on individual rankings per ranking service:

Sadly Nebraska is still outside the top 4 in all three services based on expected advancement and placement points (reminder: expected points are based on actual points scored by seed from 2010 - 2022 and rankings are treated as seed projections).

The difference between my methodology and the ranking services' methodology is that the ranking services all over value a top 8 seed and undervalue seeds 9 through 33. Their methodology assumes the only wrestles who will score are those that are in the top 8, which is just not realistic (but it is easy).

Now for the good news for Nebraska. They are up and coming. Depending on who you ask they are the second or third most improved team since the pre-season.

Just curious. Do you have point scores by each wrestler? Between Robb and labbs, that should be around 45 points.  Hardy scoring another 15? Liam around AA status, Pinto around AA status, Allred will  chip in with a few points along with Bubba. #4 was based off individual wrestler scores I believe. To note, Nebraska wrestlers continue to climb each week in the rankings 

Edited January 4, 2023 by jajensen09

[Wrestleknownothing]

7 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

Just curious. Do you have point scores by each wrestler? Between Robb and labbs, that should be around 45 points.  Hardy scoring another 15? Liam around AA status, Pinto around AA status, Allred will  chip in with a few point along with Bubba. 

The two highest scoring wrestlers in the 2022 tournament scored 46 points combined. It is a little aggressive to assume that Peyton Robb and Mike Labriola will combine for 45 points. That would be their high end, not their "should be".

But that also includes bonus points. My expected points total is only advancement and placement points (same as the ranking services).

That said here is the Nebraska breakdown:

[jajensen09]

16 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

Just curious. Do you have points scores by each wrestler? Between Robb and labbs, that should be around 45 points.  Hardy scoring another 15? Liam around AA status, Pinto around AA status, Allred will  chip in with a few point along with Bubba. Just curious 

Ok so let's say Robb and labbs combine for 40 total points. With everyone else chipping in to get 25 points.. history says 65 team points puts you  right around 4th place. 

[MPhillips]

[Wrestleknownothing]

To help understand why a #1 seed is not credited with the maximum advancement and placement points see the below table.

The row labels are the seeds and the column labels are the finishes. The percentages sum horizontally, not vertically.

So, only 52.5% of #1 seeds actually finished as champs. Another 20.8% were runners up. And 1.6% failed to even AA.

[ionel]

5 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

To help understand why ...

the poster doth know too much, methinks

[jajensen09]

8 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

To help understand why a #1 seed is not credited with the maximum advancement and placement points see the below table.

The row labels are the seeds and the column labels are the finishes. The percentages sum horizontally, not vertically.

So, only 52.5% of #1 seeds actually finished as champs. Another 20.8% were runners up. And 1.6% failed to even AA.

I agree. 

[jajensen09]

1 minute ago, ionel said:

the poster doth know too much, methinks

 

[jajensen09]

9 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

To help understand why a #1 seed is not credited with the maximum advancement and placement points see the below table.

The row labels are the seeds and the column labels are the finishes. The percentages sum horizontally, not vertically.

So, only 52.5% of #1 seeds actually finished as champs. Another 20.8% were runners up. And 1.6% failed to even AA.

Based off history and how team scores have been. 65 points puts you around top 4

[Wrestleknownothing]

14 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

Ok so let's say Robb and labbs combine for 40 total points. With everyone else chipping in to get 25 points.. history says 65 team points puts you  right around 4th place. 

Not exactly. If you total includes bonus points then 65 is not enough. It would have gotten fourth in zero of the last thirteen tournaments.

However, if you are arguing for 65 placement and advancement points (i.e. Robb and Labriola win) PLUS bonus (roughly 78 points total) then it would have been good enough to take fourth in seven of the last thirteen.

[jajensen09]

3 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Not exactly. If you total includes bonus points then 65 is not enough. It would have gotten fourth in zero of the last thirteen tournaments.

However, if you are arguing for 65 placement and advancement points (i.e. Robb and Labriola win) PLUS bonus (roughly 78 points total) then it would have been good enough to take fourth in seven of the last thirteen.

Total points, team points

Edited January 4, 2023 by jajensen09

[Wrestleknownothing]

OK, so I am tired of being a buzz kill.

The path for Nebraska is to wrestle the 2023 tournament just like they wrestled the 2022 tournament.

Last year 75% of their team wrestled at or above their seeds. They do something like that (along with continue to improve at their current pace) and third is not out of the question.

[jajensen09]

2 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

OK, so I am tired of being a buzz kill.

The path for Nebraska is to wrestle the 2023 tournament just like they wrestled the 2022 tournament.

Last year 75% of their team wrestled at or above their seeds. They do something like that (along with continue to improve at their current pace) and third is not out of the question.

Which is very likely. Robb and labbs are at their ceiling for rankings. However, Liam, Bubba, boo, Pinto, and Allred have excellent chances to wrestle above their seeds

[DiverDownBrian]

No NCState in the Intermat rankings? ... something seems amiss.

[Wrestleknownothing]

3 minutes ago, DiverDownBrian said:

No NCState in the Intermat rankings? ... something seems amiss.

Mea Culpa. I had a filter on that page. Can't remember why.

No one noticed Army was missing too.

[MPhillips]

1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

I am tired of being a buzz kill.

If all you can do is provide data without the sprinkling of emotion and faith. They shall not relent...

[Wrestleknownothing]

29 minutes ago, MPhillips said:

If all you can do is provide data without the sprinkling of emotion and faith. They shall not relent...

Nor should they. Husker's gonna Husker cuz Husker should Husker.

[MPhillips]

2 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Nor should they. Husker's gonna Husker cuz Husker should Husker.

[jajensen09]

16 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Nor should they. Husker's gonna Husker cuz Husker should Husker.

Know as, wrestling above their seed...per usual

[ionel]

2 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

OK, so I am tired of being a buzz kill.

The path for Nebraska is to wrestle the 2023 tournament just like they wrestled the 2022 tournament.

Last year 75% of their team wrestled at or above their seeds. They do something like that (along with continue to improve at their current pace) and third is not out of the question.

and if 3 or 4 PSU guys break a leg or two getting off the bus AND Iowa can't find their way to Tulsa (they couldn't find Hoffman Estates the last two years) AND Cornell lays an egg, they might just win it.  

[Wrestleknownothing]

11 minutes ago, ionel said:

and if 3 or 4 PSU guys break a leg or two getting off the bus AND Iowa can't find their way to Tulsa (they couldn't find Hoffman Estates the last two years) AND Cornell lays an egg, they might just win it.  

Now you're getting it.

[creek chub]

I’m not feeling good about VT’s chances to get a team trophy as of today. Mehki appears to be banged up and isn’t going in the Cornell match. BA isn’t either and hasn’t wrestled an official match yet

[BerniePragle]

On 1/4/2023 at 10:58 AM, Wrestleknownothing said:

The difference between my methodology and the ranking services' methodology is that the ranking services all over value a top 8 seed and undervalue seeds 9 through 33. Their methodology assumes the only wrestles who will score are those that are in the top 8, which is just not realistic (but it is easy).

Choices had to be made.

[Tigerfan]

I remember a few years back where Headshuck, I think, pointed out the statistical difference between a team with 10 qualifiers vs one with 5, even if those five were all highly seeded. 10 possible scorers made it less likely they would score less than projected points, due to unseeded guys scoring more than expected, while highly seeded guys have way more room to underscore rather than over score their projections. Something like that anyway. Wkn’s method seems to codify that principle very well. 
 

Mizzou this year is a great example, with 4 guys ranked between 9-11. Much more likely that they push 1 or 2 of those guys into AA scoring position even though traditional projections would almost completely discount them.