Cael Sanderson individual NCAA titles as a coach

[fishbane]

Cael has had enjoyed some unprecedented success at Penn State and the total individual NCAA champions he's produced has really accumulated.  To date he has coached 32 individual NCAA champions at PSU.  This is one fewer than John Smith coached at OSU and he became the head coach there in 1991.  Cael only got the PSU job in 2009.  Adding in the two champions he coached at ISU, Cael is at 34 and ahead of Smith despite starting 15 years later.

The only coaches with more individual NCAA champions than Cael are Ed Gallagher (OSU 37), Harold Nichols (ISU 38), and Dan Gable (Iowa 45).  Cael has 4 wrestlers currently ranked #1 by the #1 ranking service, Intermat, and a 5th wrestler that's a returning national champion.  It seems possible that Cael will move into 2nd on the all-time list behind only Dan Gable this season.  Cael has a realistic shot at catching Gable by 2024-2025, which is crazy.  Cael's averaged 4.2 individual NCAA champions over the past 5 tournaments and he's only 11 back.  The 5 title contenders he currently has on the squad (RBY, Starocci, Brooks, Dean, and Kerkvliet) have 10 combined years of eligibility remaining including this season going through the 2024-2025 season.  2024-2025 will be Cael's 19th season as a head coach which would be 2 fewer than Gable's term at Iowa.

What do you think the all-time list will look like at the end of the season?  The end of the 2025 season?  Can John Smith get 4 more champions to match Gallagher's school record?

[Perry]

Cael will go down as the best coach of all time and I imagine it will be quite difficult for that record to be touched again for a long while.

[bnwtwg]

I’m not a fan of the religious aspect, but Team Carl is able to put Phil Jackson to shame. He turns myeh into good, good into great, and great into elite. He also helps those individuals realize the secret sauce that there is no finish line and you will always be seeking more but harness that into a positive. It takes many of us well into our 40s and 50s if we are lucky to fully grasp that philosophy. He’s truly the evolution of Dan Gable. Hate it or love it, but we all have to respect it.

I genuinely believe that Kyle Snyder and his  mentality is the perfect molding where his protege Taylor falls short with his dick-swinging bravado. He is the true heir to the Sanderson school. A selfless champion that just wants to always give his best, work harder than anyone else, and appreciate the life lessons of wrestling. Servant-leader attitude. Should we all be so lucky…

Edited January 4, 2023 by bnwtwg
On the roof with a PBR typing on mobile

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

What about % of starters to all-American?

[fishbane]

Just now, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

What about % of starters to all-American?

Not sure on that, but Sanderson is 6th all time in individual AAs.

1) Harold Nichols 156
2) Dan Gable 152
3) John Smith 150
4) Jay Robinson 124
5) Bobby Douglas 110
6) Cael Sanderson 90

The totals for Sanderson and Smith probably include 2020 no tournament AAs.

Edited January 4, 2023 by fishbane

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

1 hour ago, fishbane said:

Not sure on that, but Sanderson is 6th all time in individual AAs.

1) Harold Nichols 156
2) Dan Gable 152
3) John Smith 150
4) Jay Robinson 124
5) Bobby Douglas 110
6) Cael Sanderson 90

The totals for Sanderson and Smith probably include 2020 no tournament AAs.

Gable was head coach for 20 years, correct? 152 out of 200 possible all-Americans ain't bad! 

(If its 152 in 20)

Edited January 4, 2023 by Interviewed_at_Weehawken

[fishbane]

30 minutes ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

Gable was head coach for 20 years, correct? 152 out of 200 possible all-Americans ain't bad! 

(If its 152 in 20)

I believe Gable coached for 21 years as he won 21 Big Ten team championships.  21 for 21 in Big Ten championships is a remarkable accomplishment and something unlikely ever to be equalled.  Back to AAs that would make for 152/210 or 72.4% for Gable.  Cael has 90 in 160 or 56.3%.  Either is an exceptional rate.  Though Cael's is slightly inflated because of the oddball 2020 AA standard.  Gable's may be considered slightly inflated because of higher scholarship limits.  Currently the max is 9.9 for wrestling and it used to be 11.  It was reduced by 10% sometime between the 1992-1993 and 1994-1995 seasons.  Now the NIL might more than make up for the 10% difference in scholarship, but at least at this point Gable had more season with 11 scholarships than Cael had with NIL.

[Le duke]

I believe Gable coached for 21 years as he won 21 Big Ten team championships.  21 for 21 in Big Ten championships is a remarkable accomplishment and something unlikely ever to be equalled.  Back to AAs that would make for 152/210 or 72.4% for Gable.  Cael has 90 in 160 or 56.3%.  Either is an exceptional rate.  Though Cael's is slightly inflated because of the oddball 2020 AA standard.  Gable's may be considered slightly inflated because of higher scholarship limits.  Currently the max is 9.9 for wrestling and it used to be 11.  It was reduced by 10% sometime between the 1992-1993 and 1994-1995 seasons.  Now the NIL might more than make up for the 10% difference in scholarship, but at least at this point Gable had more season with 11 scholarships than Cael had with NIL.

Uh, didn’t Gable also have a couple of scholarships from the men’s XC team at Iowa, too?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 hour ago, Le duke said:

Uh, didn’t Gable also have a couple of scholarships from the men’s XC team at Iowa, too?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Rounding error.

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

7 hours ago, Le duke said:

Uh, didn’t Gable also have a couple of scholarships from the men’s XC team at Iowa, too?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

How many does Carl have from the NLWC?

[Wrestleknownothing]

42 minutes ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

How many does Carl have from the NLWC?

I am curious how you think that works.

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

7 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

I am curious how you think that works.

I was pretty much joking, but there have been allegations of deferred payments.

[jchapman]

10 hours ago, fishbane said:

I believe Gable coached for 21 years as he won 21 Big Ten team championships.  21 for 21 in Big Ten championships is a remarkable accomplishment and something unlikely ever to be equalled.  Back to AAs that would make for 152/210 or 72.4% for Gable.  Cael has 90 in 160 or 56.3%.  Either is an exceptional rate.  Though Cael's is slightly inflated because of the oddball 2020 AA standard.  Gable's may be considered slightly inflated because of higher scholarship limits.  Currently the max is 9.9 for wrestling and it used to be 11.  It was reduced by 10% sometime between the 1992-1993 and 1994-1995 seasons.  Now the NIL might more than make up for the 10% difference in scholarship, but at least at this point Gable had more season with 11 scholarships than Cael had with NIL.

Weren't there more teams, and therefore more total participants for each AA spot, when Gable coached?  We could argue that Top 8 out of 80ish teams is easier than Top 8 out of 120ish teams.  I don't know the exact numbers, just plugging some in to illustrate the point.  

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

2 minutes ago, jchapman said:

Weren't there more teams, and therefore more total participants for each AA spot, when Gable coached?  We could argue that Top 8 out of 80ish teams is easier than Top 8 out of 120ish teams.  I don't know the exact numbers, just plugging some in to illustrate the point.  

Not to mention that it was top 6 until 1979.

[Wrestleknownothing]

On 1/3/2023 at 7:09 PM, fishbane said:

Not sure on that, but Sanderson is 6th all time in individual AAs.

1) Harold Nichols 156
2) Dan Gable 152
3) John Smith 150
4) Jay Robinson 124
5) Bobby Douglas 110
6) Cael Sanderson 90

The totals for Sanderson and Smith probably include 2020 no tournament AAs.

Dan Gable is The King

First a pretty graph showing the years that each coach coached and the percentage of the bracket that AAed each year. The % of a bracket to AA takes into account both the bracket size and the number of AA's each season (which was variable over the time period). The assumption is that the higher the % of the bracket to AA, the easier it is to AA. I don't know if this is exactly correct. In the open era with more wrestlers in the bracket there is, I believe, a higher incidence of soup cans. In the qualifying era that gets sorted out before the tournament. So take it with a grain of salt.

 

Next a table. Based on AA's per season Gable is clearly head and shoulders above the rest, with Cael Sanderson a distant second. But I also wanted to adjust for field size and number of AA slots (in spite of the caveat above) so I also calculate the percentage of all AA's available during their tenure that each coach earned. Again, Gable runs away from the field, but now Harold Nichols pips Sanderson as there were between 4 and 8 AA's per weight and between 8 and 11 weights during Nichols' tenure.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

On 1/3/2023 at 7:09 PM, fishbane said:

 

The totals for Sanderson and Smith probably include 2020 no tournament AAs.

They do.

Edited January 5, 2023 by Wrestleknownothing

[82bordeaux]

On 1/3/2023 at 7:49 PM, bnwtwg said:

I genuinely believe that Kyle Snyder and his  mentality is the perfect molding where his protege Taylor falls short with his dick-swinging bravado.

And here is where you're overlooking his secret sauce. He lets his wrestlers be who they are. He doesn't mold them, he enhances them.

[fishbane]

On 1/5/2023 at 12:25 PM, Wrestleknownothing said:

Dan Gable is The King

Indeed.

 

On 1/5/2023 at 12:25 PM, Wrestleknownothing said:

First a pretty graph showing the years that each coach coached and the percentage of the bracket that AAed each year. The % of a bracket to AA takes into account both the bracket size and the number of AA's each season (which was variable over the time period). The assumption is that the higher the % of the bracket to AA, the easier it is to AA. I don't know if this is exactly correct. In the open era with more wrestlers in the bracket there is, I believe, a higher incidence of soup cans. In the qualifying era that gets sorted out before the tournament. So take it with a grain of salt.

It's hard to say how important the % of bracket to AA really is. Likewise I am not sure how impactful the change in # of D1 programs is either.  In theory there is a system that pares down some # of high school participants> # of college wrestling programs># starters per team># qualifiers to team># AAs.  If high school participation stays about the same and the end number of AAs stays the same, then if the processes that select the best high school wrestlers to wrestle in college, the best wrestlers to start on their college team, the best wrestlers to compete at nationals, and the AAs at nationals is efficient you should end up with the top 8 wrestlers or whatever at the end. The would be participants on additional programs or with a larger bracket or more programs should in theory be not as good as the ones with we get with fewer participants... soup cans as you put them in the open era.  

That said there were likely significant inefficiencies in the system especially in the old days.  I can imagine some AA candidates in the open era not going because of budget reasons or non-wrestling reasons.  There have been significant changes with increased the efficiency of the system.  Determining automatic qualifiers by in season results and having at large bids.  Also seeding all participants in the tournament and having full wrestle backs.  These inefficiencies I think would even out to an extent for a head coach though.  A wrestler like John Smith might take a random loss and lose out on placing because of this and have to wait until next season for another opportunity.  A coach on the other hand has many more opportunities with 10 wrestlers/year and many years to coach one wrestler might benefit from it and another hurt by it. 

You had different numbers in this graph for Nichols and Smith than my table.  Did I get them wrong or was this a copy past error?

On 1/5/2023 at 12:25 PM, Wrestleknownothing said:

Next a table. Based on AA's per season Gable is clearly head and shoulders above the rest, with Cael Sanderson a distant second. But I also wanted to adjust for field size and number of AA slots (in spite of the caveat above) so I also calculate the percentage of all AA's available during their tenure that each coach earned. Again, Gable runs away from the field, but now Harold Nichols pips Sanderson as there were between 4 and 8 AA's per weight and between 8 and 11 weights during Nichols' tenure.

 

This is interesting.  I think the % of total AAs is a significant metric.  Changing the end number of AA's (4 or 6 or 8 or whatever) and the number of weights is a really important factor in how many AAs you can get.  It really makes Nichols number more impressive.  Just looking at the comparison of total AAs and years coaching between him and Sanderson and you'd think Sanderson is miles better, but that's not the case at all.  Nichols is better in terms of AAs

The numbers here are different than the graph.  Smith is 150, which is what I have.  In the graph you had 124.  Nichols you have at 154 in this table, in the previous graph you had 152, and I had 156.  I think I got that from ISU, but it could be off by a few.

Sanderson can't catch Gable in AAs through the first 21 years as a head coach.  Gable is too far ahead.  Even if Sanderson ran the table 50/50 it's impossible.  I doubt he could do it in first 21 years at PSU.  Cael has only have 8 AAs once and Gable averaged over 7.  I think 9.9 vs 11 scholarships could make a difference here, but it is also probably a different focus.  Sanderson could well be ahead of Gable by a fair margin in individual national titles and pretty close in team national titles after 21 season.  There is a reason Sanderson doesn't want the NCAA tournament replaced by a dual tournament.

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 hour ago, fishbane said:

You had different numbers in this graph for Nichols and Smith than my table.  Did I get them wrong or was this a copy past error?

The numbers here are different than the graph.  Smith is 150, which is what I have.  In the graph you had 124.  Nichols you have at 154 in this table, in the previous graph you had 152, and I had 156.  I think I got that from ISU, but it could be off by a few.

 

Man I had a lot of errors in the graph. You even missed on I just caught. I fixed them all and then pasted in the wrong graph. Doh.

Here is the corrected graph.

 

And the corrected table:

[SocraTease]

Well done with the stats! Kudos.   Now ... is there a MoneyBall for wrestling (a la the Oakland A's)? 

And has Cael already discovered ... or invented it? 

What would it entail besides "Just go out and score points"

Oh, and "Have fun!"

Edited January 14, 2023 by SocraTease

[Tigerfan]

2 questions for the guru of stats. 
 

Could you do a list for active coaches only?

I assume your AA numbers reflect 4 AA’s for a single, 4x AA stud. Could you show # of unique wrestlers to AA? Does a coach who gets 10 guys to AA 12x deserve more or less credit than a coach who gets 3 guys to AA 12x?

[Wrestleknownothing]

4 hours ago, Tigerfan said:

2 questions for the guru of stats. 
 

Could you do a list for active coaches only?

I assume your AA numbers reflect 4 AA’s for a single, 4x AA stud. Could you show # of unique wrestlers to AA? Does a coach who gets 10 guys to AA 12x deserve more or less credit than a coach who gets 3 guys to AA 12x?

I would need a list of active coaches (79, I think) along with the year they started and the number of AAs. Of course, many will have zero AAs, but I think that could be tough. There may be a way to work backward though. I have all results for 2010-2022 in a db. From that I can do it by school (rather than coach) for the period. Then maybe use that as a filter. Hmmm, let me think on it a bit more.

And the numbers @fishbane provided were total AAs rather than unique count of wrestlers who AAed. Again it is a data issue.

[BerniePragle]

1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

I would need a list of active coaches (79, I think) along with the year they started and the number of AAs. Of course, many will have zero AAs, but I think that could be tough. There may be a way to work backward though. I have all results for 2010-2022 in a db. From that I can do it by school (rather than coach) for the period. Then maybe use that as a filter. Hmmm, let me think on it a bit more.

And the numbers @fishbane provided were total AAs rather than unique count of wrestlers who AAed. Again it is a data issue.

When you started here did they tell you this was a full-time job?  Lol.

[MPhillips]

54 minutes ago, BerniePragle said:

When you started here did they tell you this was a full-time job?  Lol.

He really should get something for the effort.  His work is shared far and wide. 

[ionel]

1 hour ago, BerniePragle said:

When you started here did they tell you this was a full-time job?  Lol.

10 minutes ago, MPhillips said:

He really should get something for the effort.  His work is shared far and wide.