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Adam Busiello


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1 minute ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

There are sooooo many complaints about Wrestlestat's Elo (and they are not necessarily unfounded), but can we show some Wrestlesat love? Holy crap, they even have detailed records for junior college wrestlers. Great job, Wrestlestat.

Now about those Elos...

  • Fire 7

Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge

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1 minute ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

There are sooooo many complaints about Wrestlestat's Elo (and they are not necessarily unfounded), but can we show some Wrestlesat love? Holy crap, they even have detailed records for junior college wrestlers. Great job, Wrestlestat.

Now about those Elos...

You don't agree with Fix #1 at 133?

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4 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

You don't agree with Fix #1 at 133?

That doesn't bother me. As I like to say to my team, all of my predictions are wrong, but they are right on average.

What bothers me is that when RBY beat Fix BOTH of their Elos went up. That is not how Elos work. Points migrate to the winner from the loser and the magnitude is dependent on the difference between their rankings prior to the competition.

Edited by Wrestleknownothing

Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge

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11 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

That doesn't bother me. As I like to say to my team, all of my predictions are wrong, but they are right on average.

What bothers me is that when RBY beat Fix BOTH of their Elos went up. That is not how Elos work. Points migrate to the winner from the loser and the magnitude is dependent on the difference between their rankings prior to the competition.

I assume it's not a true ELO...must be adjusted per some proprietary WrestleStat algorithm.

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5 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

That doesn't bother me. As I like to say to my team, all of my predictions are wrong, but they are right on average.

What bothers me is that when RBY beat Fix BOTH of their Elos went up. That is not how Elos work. Points migrate to the winner from the loser and the magnitude is dependent on the difference between their rankings prior to the competition.

I did use to play chess and ran a few tournaments so I have some understanding of the FIDE rating system (not really that much but enough to be dangerous). Questions I would ask from this scenario- 1. Were others bouts and wrestlers involved in the time frame between the previous published rankings and that one you reference? I assume NCAA finals. Were the ELOs published between semis and finals? 2. Is more of an RPI than a straight up ELO? If so, then as the others that those two wrestled competed their scores would change and it's possible then for both to rise.

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55 minutes ago, gimpeltf said:

I did use to play chess and ran a few tournaments so I have some understanding of the FIDE rating system (not really that much but enough to be dangerous). Questions I would ask from this scenario- 1. Were others bouts and wrestlers involved in the time frame between the previous published rankings and that one you reference? I assume NCAA finals. Were the ELOs published between semis and finals? 2. Is more of an RPI than a straight up ELO? If so, then as the others that those two wrestled competed their scores would change and it's possible then for both to rise.

The most likely explanation is your first one. They are published weekly so between conference finals and NCAA finals there are several matches, not just one. I will dig deeper.

Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge

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