Upsets...Upsets.... not so fast

[jajensen09]

All these upsets this year might not make it an easy title for PSU. Heavy weight.  Schultz and Kerk could meet before finals? 197 there's landmines everywhere. Brooks taking that L could make things interesting for him. 174 if Lewis takes another L could see Carter and Lewis in semis. Rby is possibly a lock? But 133 is much deeper this year

Edited January 3, 2023 by jajensen09

[Wrestleknownothing]

9 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

All these upsets this year might not make it an easy title for PSU. Heavy weight.  Schultz and Kerk could meet before finals? 197 there's landmines everywhere. Brooks taking that L could make things interesting for him. 174 if Lewis takes another L could see Carter and Lewis in semis. Rby is possibly a lock? But 133 is much deeper this year

Meh. I have PSU with a 28.9 point lead per Intermat, 37.5 per Flo and Wrestlestat. That does not assume teams wrestle to seed. It assumes teams wrestle to the historical average for the seed. However, PSU typically outperforms the field on that metric, so it is possible that their expected points lead is even larger.

When Intermat updates their individual rankings I will update all those numbers.

[jajensen09]

11 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Meh. I have PSU with a 28.9 point lead per Intermat, 37.5 per Flo and Wrestlestat. That does not assume teams wrestle to seed. It assumes teams wrestle to the historical average for the seed. However, PSU typically outperforms the field on that metric, so it is possible that their expected points lead is even larger.

When Intermat updates their individual rankings I will update all those numbers.

I'm not doubting your metrics. I'm just going off pure matchups that could happen in ncaas where PSU could take some big Ls

Edited January 3, 2023 by jajensen09

[ionel]

31 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

All these upsets this year might not make it an easy title for PSU. Heavy weight.  Schultz and Kerk could meet before finals? 197 there's landmines everywhere. Brooks taking that L could make things interesting for him. 174 if Lewis takes another L could see Carter and Lewis in semis. Rby is possibly a lock? But 133 is much deeper this year

How many upsets would it take for Penn St to not win?  Would a couple 4th vs 3rd do it or is it gonna take a few 7th/8th vs 1st/2nd.  I'm sure Wkn has the math on this.  Also if NE achieves all the upsets, do they win?  

[jajensen09]

6 minutes ago, ionel said:

How many upsets would it take for Penn St to not win?  Would a couple 4th vs 3rd do it or is it gonna take a few 7th/8th vs 1st/2nd.  I'm sure Wkn has the math on this.  Also if NE achieves all the upsets, do they win?  

Lol I'm not saying nebraska will pull those upsets. But let's say kerk,  Dean, and either rby or Carter get best before finals.   

[bnwtwg]

41 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

Lol I'm not saying nebraska will pull those upsets. But let's say kerk,  Dean, and either rby or Carter get best before finals.   

Kerk and Dean are very plausible to lose as early as the quarters and no one would be that shocked. RBY and Starocci, short of all-time upsets, won't realistically lose until possibly the finals and RBY would be the more likely of the two to finally drop a match to Fix but he is a very, very heavy favorite. Starocci's only competition is Lewis and the earliest they would likely run into each other would be semis if seeding gets weird like happens every March.

[Idaho]

With a 35-40 point pad, Kerk, Dean, RBY and Starocci could all finish 3rd and it would still take  Iowa having to overachieve.  Two things we know that are pretty consistent for the most part....PSU doesn't underachieve and Iowa doesn't overachieve. 

[jajensen09]

27 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

Kerk and Dean are very plausible to lose as early as the quarters and no one would be that shocked. RBY and Starocci, short of all-time upsets, won't realistically lose until possibly the finals and RBY would be the more likely of the two to finally drop a match to Fix but he is a very, very heavy favorite. Starocci's only competition is Lewis and the earliest they would likely run into each other would be semis if seeding gets weird like happens every March.

I agree. How do you think the brooks L will affect him? If Lewis is #4 that could be wild. Also rby, fix, glory could be interesting 

[jajensen09]

8 minutes ago, Idaho said:

With a 35-40 point pad, Kerk, Dean, RBY and Starocci could all finish 3rd and it would still take  Iowa having to overachieve.  Two things we know that are pretty consistent for the most part....PSU doesn't underachieve and Iowa doesn't overachieve. 

Saying all 3 would get 3rd is a stretch, If they took an L somewhere.  Dean might be lucky to AA

[bnwtwg]

34 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

I agree. How do you think the brooks L will affect him? If Lewis is #4 that could be wild. Also rby, fix, glory could be interesting 

Brooks will breeze through the bracket and will probably be the Hodge runner-up to the winner of 165 so long as that person goes undefeated.

RBY > Fix > big gap > Glory when it comes to folkstyle. The only reason Fix is even considered to have a chance, despite the winless record, is his renowned freestyle pedigree.

Lewis probably won't be the #4 seed BUT if Plott stays undefeated until NCAAs (likely) and Mikey Labs beats everyone not named Starocci on the B1G schedule + keeps the match close at B1Gs tourney (possible but not probable) then I could see a path to Lewis getting dropped down to the 4 seed but hopefully that doesn't happen. Don't forget that while the All-Star match happened in real life, it absolutely did not happen as far as seeding goes and he will very likely enter NCAAs undefeated will enter NCAAs with a loss to Labriola at Vegas. However, if Lewis takes another loss prior to NCAAs then that realllllly muddies the waters and the best he will probably attain is the #3 seed given that Plott is likely to be undefeated since most B1G teams refuse to wrestle OkSt. Hopefully common sense prevails to give the possibility of a finals rematch for the fans. That would be three good potential stories for the finals broadcast: 174 finals rematch, Yianni going for #4, Lee going for #4. 

Edited January 3, 2023 by bnwtwg
forgot about the CKLV loss to Labs

[Formally140]

I won’t be shocked if PSU only has 2 finalists. I will be shocked if they don’t win as a team

[Idaho]

51 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

Saying all 3 would get 3rd is a stretch, If they took an L somewhere.  Dean might be lucky to AA

I'm going to out on a limb here as a non-PSU fan and say that if RBY, Starocci and Kerk took a loss in the championship bracket, there would be a high probability they would come back to 3rd. I could see Dean not AA though - that is true.  This is the typical yearly , everything could go wrong for PSU and everything could go right with Iowa thought. How often has it happened? 

[jajensen09]

15 minutes ago, Idaho said:

I'm going to out on a limb here as a non-PSU fan and say that if RBY, Starocci and Kerk took a loss in the championship bracket, there would be a high probability they would come back to 3rd. I could see Dean not AA though - that is true.  This is the typical yearly , everything could go wrong for PSU and everything could go right with Iowa thought. How often has it happened? 

You are correct. I'm not even thinking iowa to be #2. Maybe iowa state, Arizona State, nebraska. I just don't remember Penn state looking this vulnerable last year.

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

1 hour ago, bnwtwg said:

Brooks will breeze through the bracket and will probably be the Hodge runner-up to the winner of 165 so long as that person goes undefeated.

2nd runner-up?  I would imagine that, as things are going to supposedly be going forward, that the winner of 125 is the Hodge favorite.

[bnwtwg]

2 minutes ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

2nd runner-up?  I would imagine that, as things are going to supposedly be going forward, that the winner of 125 is the Hodge favorite.

Unless Lee wrestles more of the schedule I really don't see it happening. And as I'm partial to senior freestyle results, I'm perfectly okay with that outcome as a subpremier keyboard warrior.

[Mr. PeanutButter]

46 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

You are correct. I'm not even thinking iowa to be #2. Maybe iowa state, Arizona State, nebraska. I just don't remember Penn state looking this vulnerable last year.

What are you smoking? Vulnerable?? They're 30 point favorites, AT LEAST

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

16 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

Unless Lee wrestles more of the schedule I really don't see it happening. And as I'm partial to senior freestyle results, I'm perfectly okay with that outcome as a subpremier keyboard warrior.

I think he's claiming that he is full go the rest of the season.

[ionel]

8 minutes ago, Mr. PeanutButter said:

What are you smoking? Vulnerable?? They're 30 point favorites, AT LEAST

If 4 or 5 break a leg or two getting off the bus in Tulsa ... there's a chance.  

[jajensen09]

1 minute ago, ionel said:

If 4 or 5 break a leg or two getting off the bus in Tulsa ... there's a chance.  

 

11 minutes ago, Mr. PeanutButter said:

What are you smoking? Vulnerable?? They're 30 point favorites, AT LEAST

Dean, kerk, brooks all look beatable. Not sure you could say this last year. And how good fix looks.

[jajensen09]

4 minutes ago, ionel said:

If 4 or 5 break a leg or two getting off the bus in Tulsa ... there's a chance.  

I don't think they are as a heavy favorite as last year 

[ionel]

3 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

 

Dean, kerk, brooks all look beatable. Not sure you could say this last year. And how good fix looks.

As in losing their first two matches "beatable" or just gonna finish 2nd "beatable?"
I thought Fix looked better last year but maybe he is just changing his approach to just focus on winning that single close match.  

[jajensen09]

2 minutes ago, ionel said:

As in losing their first two matches "beatable" or just gonna finish 2nd "beatable?"
I thought Fix looked better last year but maybe he is just changing his approach to just focus on winning that single close match.  

Dean does not look like a finalist.  Schultz and kerk could be a semis final match? Lewis and Carter a semis final match?  Brooks a tough semis final and rby tough semis finals? 

[bnwtwg]

Until Kerk beats Cassioppi or Schultz I cannot in good conscience pick him, and I was a big time Kerk stan for a long time. He really seems to struggle against big heavies with a high wrestling IQ.

Dean lost twice last year at NCAAs. He got a couple big time Carl calls in his favor. If he still had a red singlet with a big white C on his chest I'm not sure he would have received the same treatment.

Brooks losing may have been the best thing to happen to him. I am anticipating a destroyer of all worlds the next 11 weeks.

[jajensen09]

2 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

Until Kerk beats Cassioppi or Schultz I cannot in good conscience pick him, and I was a big time Kerk stan for a long time. He really seems to struggle against big heavies with a high wrestling IQ.

Dean lost twice last year at NCAAs. He got a couple big time Carl calls in his favor. If he still had a red singlet with a big white C on his chest I'm not sure he would have received the same treatment.

Brooks losing may have been the best thing to happen to him. I am anticipating a destroyer of all worlds the next 11 weeks.

I agree with you I trust brooks alot more than kerk and Dean. So Penn state at that point would have 3 finalists? Is that as much of a runaway as last year? I don't think so

[Wrestleknownothing]

4 hours ago, jajensen09 said:

I'm not doubting our metrics. I'm just going off pure matchups that could happen in ncaas where PSU could take some big Ls

I hear ya. My numbers assume they will take some losses. Across the 4 top ranked wrestlers I have them falling roughly 13 points shy of max. So you can look at that as one of four coming in sixth or seventh. Or two coming in third.