Over/under on PSU/NLWC guys winning Olympic spots

[SocraTease]

How many spots out of 6 do Penn State or Nittany Lion Wrestling Club guys  (including recruits and former wrestlers) take? 

57 KG - Gilman, Nico, Lliledahl

65 KG - Zain, Lee, Bartlett

74 KG - Dake, Nolf,  Cenzo, Haines, Mesenbrink, Facundo

86 KG - DT, Brooks, Starocci, Dean, Mirasola

97 KG - Snyder

125 KG - Kerk

[Truzzcat]

3 feels like the absolute bare minimum 6 seems aggressive so I'm going to go with 4 thinking that lee gets it done at 57 and Yianni or Alirez at 65 and hedging that if zain or lee does it at 65 then Kerk wont at heavy.

[Eagle26]

10 minutes ago, SocraTease said:

How many spots out of 6 do Penn State or Nittany Lion Wrestling Club guys  (including recruits and former wrestlers) take? 

57 KG - Gilman, Nico, Lliledahl

65 KG - Zain, Lee, Bartlett

74 KG - Dake, Nolf,  Cenzo, Haines, Mesenbrink, Facundo

86 KG - DT, Brooks, Starocci, Dean, Mirasola

97 KG - Snyder

125 KG - Kerk

They have pretty heavy favorites at 3 weights (74, 86, 97) and very legitimate contenders at the other 3. No one would be shocked to see anyone of Gilman, Retherford, or Kerk on the team. So it would be a very low chance they get all 6 but it’s not out of the realm of possibility. I’d say the over under should probably be set at 3.5 and I’d probably take the over. 

[Gus]

I think they get 4 spots. Would not be shocked if they got 6. Would be shocked if it was less than 3. 

[fishbane]

You forgot Suriano.  He is a former PSU wrestler.

[Tyler]

4 is very realistic. 6 is a decent possibility 

[fishbane]

Also missing Hall at 86kg

[MPhillips]

17 minutes ago, fishbane said:

Also missing Hall at 86kg

Hall is wrestling?

[fishbane]

1 minute ago, MPhillips said:

Hall is wrestling?

He was 5 in the preseeds USAW announced earlier this week.  Did he pull out?

[Dogbone]

Is this NLWC or PSU wrestlers?  You can't count both.  Hall and Suriano are not NLWC wrestlers; Gillman, Dake and Snyder were not PSU wrestlers.  

I think NLWC gets the upper 4 weights. 

[bnwtwg]

I'll take the under 3.5 action

I'll boldly say only Taylor and Dake this year.

[bnwtwg]

29 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

I'll take the under 3.5 action

I'll boldly say only Taylor and Dake this year.

I meant Snyder. JB takes out Dake like I took out 15 minutes to edit

[Eagle26]

2 hours ago, Dogbone said:

Is this NLWC or PSU wrestlers?  You can't count both.  Hall and Suriano are not NLWC wrestlers; Gillman, Dake and Snyder were not PSU wrestlers.  

I think NLWC gets the upper 4 weights. 

I agree it’s not fair to pick both and I’d think it’s more relevant to do NLWC. Even so, NLWC has the best chances at each weight anyway. 

[ionel]

9 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

I meant Snyder. JB takes out Dake like I took out 15 minutes to edit

Bob only gives you 15 minutes so:

Vote for ionel in 2024!

[bnwtwg]

1 minute ago, ionel said:

Bob only gives you 15 minutes so:

Vote for ionel in 2024!

What is your stance on response emojis?

 

[ionel]

11 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

What is your stance on response emojis?

 

hmm ... I need to do some work on that policy position. 

[fishbane]

On 4/16/2024 at 3:01 PM, Gus said:

I think they get 4 spots. Would not be shocked if they got 6. Would be shocked if it was less than 3. 

Would make sense.  NLWC has 4 guys that had spots in 2021.

[wrestle87]

4 is the odds on number.  Any less would actually be a disappointment for the club.  Which 4 it winds up being is up in the air, but I think 4 is not an unreasonable number.

Once again crazy that competition coming from within that room at many weights is more difficult than it is coming from the rest of the country.

Edited April 18 by wrestle87

[1032004]

4 hours ago, wrestle87 said:

4 is the odds on number.  Any less would actually be a disappointment for the club.  Which 4 it winds up being is up in the air, but I think 4 is not an unreasonable number.

Once again crazy that competition coming from within that room at many weights is more difficult than it is coming from the rest of the country.

Agree, I think it’s hard to set a half-point over/under since 4 (at least) seems like the most likely outcome.  I don’t envision Dake or Snyder losing, or Taylor losing to someone besides Brooks, and then figure they get at least one of the other weights.

I don’t know if I agree with your last sentence though.  I think it being “more difficult” is probably only true at 86.  65 and 74 about equal IMO.

[ionel]

4 hours ago, 1032004 said:

Agree, I think it’s hard to set a half-point over/under since 4 (at least) seems like the most likely outcome.  I don’t envision Dake or Snyder losing, or Taylor losing to someone besides Brooks, and then figure they get at least one of the other weights.

I don’t know if I agree with your last sentence though.  I think it being “more difficult” is probably only true at 86.  65 and 74 about equal IMO.

3.75  or 4.25 

Edited April 18 by ionel