Is this a wake-up for Iowa..., finally?

[Tom formerly Tofurky]

On 3/27/2024 at 12:54 AM, SocraTease said:

Very few like or appreciate Iowa style wrestling anymore.   It's unattractive in the 2000s.  It's based on some fiction of a tough macho, self-sacrificing man. Marlboro Man.  It's low scoring.  It's not fan friendly.  It is rooted in the Brands' experience at very low weights and doesn't work well in an era scrambling and funk. It doesn't appeal to recruits.  It is not enjoyable to watch.  The Brands don't get this and they think being stubborn is being resolute and strong.   These spark plugs and fire hydrant coaches aren't going to change.  And they will only fall behind further while the peanut-crunching crowd gets louder .... in its impatience and disapproval.   But the midwest also doesn't like change either and doesn't know what to do.  It's more earth than water or fire.  It loves authoritarians not innovators.  

I would stop at saying that it doesn't appeal to recruits. In his 18 years as head coach (not including the COVID year where no one competed), Tom Brands routinely recruits among the best guys in the country and his teams have finished in the top five 16 times. Hell, he recruited one of the best high school wrestlers of all times and him and his staff developed him into a three-time National Champion. The Hawkeyes never suffer for numbers and their second tier guys would be starters at 75-80% of other Division I programs.

To address the "authoritarians not innovators" comment, I wonder if it's more appropriate to say "brawlers versus dancers." One is very brutal and harsh, where the other is more elegant and graceful. I don't know...

That said, the old Iowa style I grew up with is not my style, but I also love what Iowa brings to the wrestling world.

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

I was told by somebody who knows what he is talking about that a big part of any problem is that Iowa has "two bad cops" who are clearly running the show.  One "bad cop" might work, but two is apparently not optimal.  I still think they are doing pretty well as the second best program, just passing along what I had heard.

[fishbane]

48 minutes ago, Tom formerly Tofurky said:

I would stop at saying that it doesn't appeal to recruits. In his 18 years as head coach (not including the COVID year where no one competed), Tom Brands routinely recruits among the best guys in the country and his teams have finished in the top five 16 times. Hell, he recruited one of the best high school wrestlers of all times and him and his staff developed him into a three-time National Champion. The Hawkeyes never suffer for numbers and their second tier guys would be starters at 75-80% of other Division I programs.

To address the "authoritarians not innovators" comment, I wonder if it's more appropriate to say "brawlers versus dancers." One is very brutal and harsh, where the other is more elegant and graceful. I don't know...

That said, the old Iowa style I grew up with is not my style, but I also love what Iowa brings to the wrestling world.

The Brandses have not recruited as well the past 12 years as they did at the beginning of their tenure in Iowa city.  Below is a table I made with the number of top 25 recruits for a selection of top teams from 2005-2024. A top 25 recruit should roughly equate to a top 10 wrestler assuming the rankers are able to accurately determine which wrestlers will be have the best college careers.  From 2005-2012 Iowa had the second most top 25 recruits (16) behind only OSU (19).  All these years were Brands years except 2005.  He was at Virginia Tech that season where he was able to recruit 3 top 25 wrestlers who all ultimately ended up at Iowa, so including that they would be tied with OSU.  Best recruiting in D1 up until 2013.

Since 2012 Iowa has not been as successful in recruiting top 25 wrestlers.  They have not had more than 2 in a season with 2023 being the exception.  That year was is kind of an exception which may be partially explained by the unusually good recruiting class the state of Iowa produced in 2023.  In 2023 there were 3 Iowa natives in the top 25 recruits and all committed to Iowa.  Only three times in the 2005-2024 time period has the state of Iowa produced at least 3 top 25 recruits; 2023 (3), 2012 (3), and 2005 (4).  Each of these seasons Iowa/Brands has had an excellent recruiting class.  In the 2013-2024 time period Iowa's ability to recruit top 25 wrestlers has diminished with PSU, OSU, and Ohio State routinely out recruiting them.  Their peers are now teams like Minnesota, Cornell, Michigan, Nebraska, VT, and NC State.

Edited March 28 by fishbane
fixed table

[CHROMEBIRD]

1 hour ago, Tom formerly Tofurky said:

I would stop at saying that it doesn't appeal to recruits. In his 18 years as head coach (not including the COVID year where no one competed), Tom Brands routinely recruits among the best guys in the country and his teams have finished in the top five 16 times. Hell, he recruited one of the best high school wrestlers of all times and him and his staff developed him into a three-time National Champion. The Hawkeyes never suffer for numbers and their second tier guys would be starters at 75-80% of other Division I programs.

To address the "authoritarians not innovators" comment, I wonder if it's more appropriate to say "brawlers versus dancers." One is very brutal and harsh, where the other is more elegant and graceful. I don't know...

That said, the old Iowa style I grew up with is not my style, but I also love what Iowa brings to the wrestling world.

Imo, the old "Iowa Style" works well at developing good wrestlers but it will only get you so far, especially with or against elite wrestlers. So, we get exactly the results that we get. Bringing in some technical expertise on staff to work with guys on scrambling, chain wrestling, finishing shots would fix a lot of tactical issues at Iowa right now. Changing the culture of the program would also pay huge dividends, but it's a longer-term issue to be fixed.

A huge competitive advantage that Iowa has is the structure and individual attention that Iowa gives its wrestlers. A lot of kids need a solid framework like that in order to thrive. Look at DeSanto, for example.

Cael's relaxed and "fun" training style isn't for everyone. Guys like Gavin Teasdale, Nick Suriano, and Andrew Long struggled without guardrails and a lot of rigor in place. It's not too different I think from the way students can sink or swim when they go from the structure of high school to the autonomy of college. 

[Smsu150]

6 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Bobby Knight

Bill Belichick

Tony LaRussa

LaRussa retired after winning the WS with the Cardinals, albeit prior to 2006 there was some frustration amoungst the fanbase, myself included, with the lack of a WS championship in St. Louis.  LaRussa had won one in Oakland.  With that being said there was never a serious push to remove him from his manager position.  The Cardinals were in contention most years during his time there. 

It didn't help Belichick that Brady went and won immediately elsewhere. 

Knight is a good comparison.  I know Knight got fired for his behavior and not necessary his coaching, but he was beyond his heyday at Indiana.  He was tolerated while Indiana was winning national titles and going to Final Fours. 

[Smsu150]

30 minutes ago, CHROMEBIRD said:

Imo, the old "Iowa Style" works well at developing good wrestlers but it will only get you so far, especially with or against elite wrestlers. So, we get exactly the results that we get. Bringing in some technical expertise on staff to work with guys on scrambling, chain wrestling, finishing shots would fix a lot of tactical issues at Iowa right now. Changing the culture of the program would also pay huge dividends, but it's a longer-term issue to be fixed.

A huge competitive advantage that Iowa has is the structure and individual attention that Iowa gives its wrestlers. A lot of kids need a solid framework like that in order to thrive. Look at DeSanto, for example.

Cael's relaxed and "fun" training style isn't for everyone. Guys like Gavin Teasdale, Nick Suriano, and Andrew Long struggled without guardrails and a lot of rigor in place. It's not too different I think from the way students can sink or swim when they go from the structure of high school to the autonomy of college. 

Good analysis. 

[fishbane]

3 minutes ago, Smsu150 said:

LaRussa retired after winning the WS with the Cardinals, albeit prior to 2006 there was some frustration amoungst the fanbase, myself included, with the lack of a WS championship in St. Louis.  LaRussa had won one in Oakland.  With that being said there was never a serious push to remove him from his manager position.  The Cardinals were in contention most years during his time there. 

It didn't help Belichick that Brady went and won immediately elsewhere. 

Knight is a good comparison.  I know Knight got fired for his behavior and not necessary his coaching, but he was beyond his heyday at Indiana.  He was tolerated while Indiana was winning national titles and going to Final Fours. 

LaRussa unretired to come back and coach the White Sox in 2021 and 2022.  He had some success and got the team yo the playoffs one year.  There were constant questions from his appointment as to whether or not he'd be able to relate and get through to the teams which had one of the youngest rosters in the league.

[JeanGuy]

It is really recruiting. I think the time of finding diamonds in the rough and coaching them up is mostly over. The best kids are wrestling the best kids all over the country and the world. The top guys in recruiting rankings really are the top guys now.

Coaching is about having enough flexibility to know what each guy needs to be his best version.

[Tom formerly Tofurky]

11 hours ago, fishbane said:

The Brandses have not recruited as well the past 12 years as they did at the beginning of their tenure in Iowa city.  Below is a table I made with the number of top 25 recruits for a selection of top teams from 2005-2024. A top 25 recruit should roughly equate to a top 10 wrestler assuming the rankers are able to accurately determine which wrestlers will be have the best college careers.  From 2005-2012 Iowa had the second most top 25 recruits (16) behind only OSU (19).  All these years were Brands years except 2005.  He was at Virginia Tech that season where he was able to recruit 3 top 25 wrestlers who all ultimately ended up at Iowa, so including that they would be tied with OSU.  Best recruiting in D1 up until 2013.

Since 2012 Iowa has not been as successful in recruiting top 25 wrestlers.  They have not had more than 2 in a season with 2023 being the exception.  That year was is kind of an exception which may be partially explained by the unusually good recruiting class the state of Iowa produced in 2023.  In 2023 there were 3 Iowa natives in the top 25 recruits and all committed to Iowa.  Only three times in the 2005-2024 time period has the state of Iowa produced at least 3 top 25 recruits; 2023 (3), 2012 (3), and 2005 (4).  Each of these seasons Iowa/Brands has had an excellent recruiting class.  In the 2013-2024 time period Iowa's ability to recruit top 25 wrestlers has diminished with PSU, OSU, and Ohio State routinely out recruiting them.  Their peers are now teams like Minnesota, Cornell, Michigan, Nebraska, VT, and NC State.

When did this thread become about recruiting high school kids as THE measure of success?

To ignore the following finishes at Nationals for Iowa from 2013 to 2024 is absolutely ludicrous.

Iowa: 4, 4, 2, 5, 4, 3, 4, COVID, 1, 3, 2, 5

Since you mentioned them, here are how those other teams have finished at Nationals in that same time frame:

Ohio State: 6, 6, 1, 3, 2, 2, 2, COVID, 9, 13, 4, 8

Oklahoma State: 2, 3, 7, 2, 3, 13, 3, COVID, 3, 14, 18, 10

Minnesota: 3, 2, 8, 17, 7, 17, 8, COVID, 7, 11, 15, 22

Cornell: 5, 7, 5, 7, 8, 7, 7, COVID, DNC, 7, 3, 2

Michigan: 33, 17, 11, 9, 10, 4, 5, COVID, 5, 2, 6, 3

Nebraska: 13, 11, 9, 8, 9, 9, 10, COVID, 12, 5, 8, 9

Virginia Tech: 10, 8, 10, 4, 6, 8, 11, COVID, 14, 8, 9, 7

NC State: 22, 19, 16, 11, 17, 4, 17, COVID, 6, 10, 10, 11

Not one of those teams you mentioned has finished in the top five of the team race since 2013, but Iowa has every single year.

This thread is not about how well Tom Brands recruits blue chip high school kids, but whether or not he should be replaced as head coach based on the actual results of the wrestlers he has on the University of Iowa roster. I argue that, based on those real results as seen above, Tom Brands is the second to best coach in NCAA Division I in the Cael/PSU-era. For my money is there is Cael, then there is Brands (MAYBE Grey and Bormet), and then there is everyone else.

[Tom formerly Tofurky]

I don't know how to edit this, so...

"Not one of those teams you mentioned consistenly has finished in the top five of the team race since 2013, but Iowa has every single year. By the numbers, Cornell is closest, then Michigan since Bormet was elevated to Head Coach."

[AgaveMaria]

Tom formerly Tofurkey wrote: "This thread is not about how well Tom Brands recruits blue chip high school kids, but whether or not he should be replaced as head coach..."

---------------------------

No, it is not. Read what I wrote.

It is about tweaking and changing some things to get better results and whether T&T can/will bite the bullet and actually do so.

Iowa is still very good. But, my view is that T&T are limiting the success of the wrestlers by failing to push past what has somewhat worked for them in the past. It works but other programs(mainly PSU) are doing better. It works and Oklahoma State found out just how well it can work when all goes well.

It doesn't work all the time and that is the problem.

Firing the coach? As has been pointed out Iowa is still a damned good program. Chasing titles, not owning them. Mired in the past - though not as badly as Oklahoma State with Grampa John "you kids get the hell off my lawn" Smith. (though the addition of Coleman looks to have the possibility of changing that a bit)

Again, WILL T&T make the small changes needed? They are in the same boat as Jim Zalesky was. They don't have the touch Dan Gable had in getting the best from individual wrestlers in pushing/teaching them to make the best of their tools and abilities. That is where I see Cael Sanderson & Co really pushing things now.

T&T are really a "one size fits all" with individual style more a part of things IF it fits their pre-conceived pattern. If it doesn't they seem to fumble around and appear that hollering and yelling will make up for a lack of finesse in tuning training to the kids strengths and shoring up the weak areas.

Again, I hope Tom & Co does it. Good for the sport, good for the school and more importantly good for the kids they put on the mat.

[KLCarnegieTech_1969]

Well he did in 2021.  I'm not sure if he coached there for a year or more.  Since his younger brother wrestlers there maybe he is still affiliated in some way.  room.  https://fightingillini.com/sports/wrestling/roster/coaches/ed-ruth/2033

Edited March 29 by KLCarnegieTech_1969

[fishbane]

22 hours ago, Tom formerly Tofurky said:

I would stop at saying that it doesn't appeal to recruits. In his 18 years as head coach (not including the COVID year where no one competed), Tom Brands routinely recruits among the best guys in the country and his teams have finished in the top five 16 times. Hell, he recruited one of the best high school wrestlers of all times and him and his staff developed him into a three-time National Champion.

I was responding to these statements about Tom Brands's recruiting and how he appeals to recruits.  His recruiting had not been top notch the past 10 or so years.  The numbers show this.  You are correct that his teams have outperformed some rivals that out recruit him.  There are a few possible reasons for this

1. The Brandses have found inefficiencies in the recruiting market and know which recruits will perform best better than the rankers do.  This is sort of a Moneyball approach.  They find the wrestlers that the rankers under value and target them.  Their true rank is actually higher than represented in the Big Board
2. The Brandses are able to get more out of a given wrestler than their rivals.  Essentially they get more out of less  They are able to coach guys that are outside the top 25 recruits into top 10 guys and AAs better than their rivals are able to coach top 25 guys into AAs.
3. The Brandses are able to get guys to transfer to Iowa that they can coach to AA finishes to supplement their recruiting thus overcoming the disadvantage. 

Probably all apply in some cases, but they all represent and inefficiency except 1.  If the Brandses can get more out of top 50 guys than their peers than Iowa would do even better if they started with more top 25 guys.  And for #3 if they were able to recruit those transfers out of high school they would get more out of them.  The significant transfers to Iowa in recent years includes Caliendo, DeSanto, Eierman, Franek, Lugo, Teske, and Woods who all had success at their previous institutions.  This means Iowa missed out on those productive years when they were wrestling elsewhere and possibly had to pay a premium either in scholarship or NIL $ to recruit them.  The value of an AA transfer is higher than a top 25 recruit out of high school.  Reason number 1 is smart management, but it is a small market strategy.  Iowa is one of the most storied programs with the largest resources in NCAA wrestling if they are forced to go after second tier recruits because PSU, OSU, and Ohio State get their pick of the best guys that's kind of an issue.

9 hours ago, Tom formerly Tofurky said:

When did this thread become about recruiting high school kids as THE measure of success?

...

This thread is not about how well Tom Brands recruits blue chip high school kids, but whether or not he should be replaced as head coach based on the actual results of the wrestlers he has on the University of Iowa roster.

When asked "How do you make gains in the Big Ten and keep pushing up the ladder?"  Illinois assistant coach Jeremey Hunter said "It comes down to recruiting.  You gotta have the best guys."  So whilst recruiting is not the final measure of success it is a big part of it and one where Iowa has fallen a bit behind the top three.  That puts them at a disadvantage out of the gate.  

I think the fact that the state of Iowa had their best graduating class of past 25 years in 2005 and Zalesky only managed to recruit only one of them (Morningstar) to Iowa whist Brands got three to go to Virginia Tech (Borschel, Slaton, and LeClere) and Sanderson got one (Mueller) to go to ISU as part the #1 recruiting class (Varner, Gallick, Sanderson, Fanthorpe, and Zabriskie) was a big part of why he was let go.  He was being out recruiting by in state rival ISU and his former assistant Brands.

[Packard]

PSU is obviously at a standard not seen for a long time. I doubt anybody can come in to Iowa and overtake the Cael machine right now, but Iowa fans should expect to be the clear second best team. 
 

Sure, over the last five years they’ve have the second best overall finishes, but they are still not the dominate team. Instead of putting 4 or 5 guys in the semis with 3 making it to the finals, they are crossing their fingers, hoping on a wing and a prayer, to get 1 guy to the finals. 
 

The expectation isn’t dominated 2nd and competing for 1st, it’s hoping to continue traditions. 
 

Although other coaches haven’t elevated programs to Iowa levels, what could Dresser, Schwab, Pop, Grey, or any number of guys do with the resources that Iowa has?

[Tom formerly Tofurky]

On 3/29/2024 at 10:21 AM, fishbane said:

I was responding to these statements about Tom Brands's recruiting and how he appeals to recruits.  His recruiting had not been top notch the past 10 or so years.  The numbers show this.  You are correct that his teams have outperformed some rivals that out recruit him.  There are a few possible reasons for this

1. The Brandses have found inefficiencies in the recruiting market and know which recruits will perform best better than the rankers do.  This is sort of a Moneyball approach.  They find the wrestlers that the rankers under value and target them.  Their true rank is actually higher than represented in the Big Board
2. The Brandses are able to get more out of a given wrestler than their rivals.  Essentially they get more out of less  They are able to coach guys that are outside the top 25 recruits into top 10 guys and AAs better than their rivals are able to coach top 25 guys into AAs.
3. The Brandses are able to get guys to transfer to Iowa that they can coach to AA finishes to supplement their recruiting thus overcoming the disadvantage. 

Probably all apply in some cases, but they all represent and inefficiency except 1.  If the Brandses can get more out of top 50 guys than their peers than Iowa would do even better if they started with more top 25 guys.  And for #3 if they were able to recruit those transfers out of high school they would get more out of them.  The significant transfers to Iowa in recent years includes Caliendo, DeSanto, Eierman, Franek, Lugo, Teske, and Woods who all had success at their previous institutions.  This means Iowa missed out on those productive years when they were wrestling elsewhere and possibly had to pay a premium either in scholarship or NIL $ to recruit them.  The value of an AA transfer is higher than a top 25 recruit out of high school.  Reason number 1 is smart management, but it is a small market strategy.  Iowa is one of the most storied programs with the largest resources in NCAA wrestling if they are forced to go after second tier recruits because PSU, OSU, and Ohio State get their pick of the best guys that's kind of an issue.

When asked "How do you make gains in the Big Ten and keep pushing up the ladder?"  Illinois assistant coach Jeremey Hunter said "It comes down to recruiting.  You gotta have the best guys."  So whilst recruiting is not the final measure of success it is a big part of it and one where Iowa has fallen a bit behind the top three.  That puts them at a disadvantage out of the gate.  

I think the fact that the state of Iowa had their best graduating class of past 25 years in 2005 and Zalesky only managed to recruit only one of them (Morningstar) to Iowa whist Brands got three to go to Virginia Tech (Borschel, Slaton, and LeClere) and Sanderson got one (Mueller) to go to ISU as part the #1 recruiting class (Varner, Gallick, Sanderson, Fanthorpe, and Zabriskie) was a big part of why he was let go.  He was being out recruiting by in state rival ISU and his former assistant Brands.

I forget hot to do the multiple quote box reply thing, so I'll do my best to reply to what seems appropriate.

Your initial message was very narrow and mentioned "Top 25" guys only. In my mind, since we aren't talking about PSU in this case, since they are head and shoulders above everyone else at this time, I don't think Top 25 is the lone measuring stick to success, as you point out in your first numbered point.

As we know, rankings are subjective. Maybe T&T&Co. are homing in on the kids who have proverbial chips on their shoulders and telling them that they are better than some goofball's pretend number assigned to them on some goofy ranking/recruiting service. Remember, these are guys who wrestled angry, so they know those kids and just how to work with them.

I agree with point two. I'd say that they do it even better than PSU does. That being said, here we are discussing anyone who is not in the top 25. Speaking for myself alone, I believe that number is far too narrow as an indicator of success. Does it help? Of course it does. Is it the be all end all of recruiting? Not at all.

Number three applies to every coach in the country who struggles to fill a weight class. Along with that, we don't always know why said kid went said place out of high school. Of the list of names you made above who transferred into Iowa from other universities, I do know the "inside scoop" on two of them and why they didn't go to Iowa out of the gates. It wasn't the coaching, but the financial support available to them at those times.

Again, your assertion that anyone outside of the Top 25 is "second tier" rubs me the wrong way. We're talking about kids here who peak at all different ages.

I'll push back on your "top three" assertion. PSU, that's a no brainer. Neither Ohio State nor Oklahoma State have finished ahead of Iowa at Nationals since before COVID. That was more than five years ago now. I'm not sure how they fall into the "top three" when Iowa is the second most consistent team in the country behind Cael & Company.

To your last paragraph: Iowa State had the greatest college wrestler and 2004 olympic champion on staff. They were a top 10 team nationally, with two runner-up finishes in the previous five seasons. They were viable.

To Zalesky, he is not the most boisterous outgoing guy who was going to grab you and say, "let's work on this." He probably resembled someone's dad, where T&T were the uncles who still had some pep to them. In short, Zalesky was "long in the tooth" and his personality didn't lend to the Gable/Iowa "style". There's a reason that Tom got the job after that, because he has that.

Finally, similar to what you mentioned about Iowa State and their #1 recruiting class (again, look who was in the room and on a Wheaties box), Iowa was never built from in-state talent alone. Some of the greatest Hawkeyes ever have been from New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Illinois, South Dakota, Michigan, etc. I don't know that the administration put a lot of weight into where kids come from, and that they fully understand that PSU is an absolute monster these days with more resources than anyone else.

I appreciate the discussion and your well-thought out insights. I still feel strongly that Iowa is a firm #2 team in all of NCAA wrestling, and this is coming from an Oklahoma State and Lehigh fan.

#SaveTomBrandsJob

[Tom formerly Tofurky]

On 3/29/2024 at 8:23 AM, AgaveMaria said:

Tom formerly Tofurkey wrote: "This thread is not about how well Tom Brands recruits blue chip high school kids, but whether or not he should be replaced as head coach..."

---------------------------

No, it is not. Read what I wrote...

My reply wasn't to you.

[billyhoyle]

On 3/28/2024 at 10:27 PM, Tom formerly Tofurky said:

When did this thread become about recruiting high school kids as THE measure of success?

To ignore the following finishes at Nationals for Iowa from 2013 to 2024 is absolutely ludicrous.

Iowa: 4, 4, 2, 5, 4, 3, 4, COVID, 1, 3, 2, 5

Since you mentioned them, here are how those other teams have finished at Nationals in that same time frame:

Ohio State: 6, 6, 1, 3, 2, 2, 2, COVID, 9, 13, 4, 8

Oklahoma State: 2, 3, 7, 2, 3, 13, 3, COVID, 3, 14, 18, 10

Minnesota: 3, 2, 8, 17, 7, 17, 8, COVID, 7, 11, 15, 22

Cornell: 5, 7, 5, 7, 8, 7, 7, COVID, DNC, 7, 3, 2

Michigan: 33, 17, 11, 9, 10, 4, 5, COVID, 5, 2, 6, 3

Nebraska: 13, 11, 9, 8, 9, 9, 10, COVID, 12, 5, 8, 9

Virginia Tech: 10, 8, 10, 4, 6, 8, 11, COVID, 14, 8, 9, 7

NC State: 22, 19, 16, 11, 17, 4, 17, COVID, 6, 10, 10, 11

Not one of those teams you mentioned has finished in the top five of the team race since 2013, but Iowa has every single year.

This thread is not about how well Tom Brands recruits blue chip high school kids, but whether or not he should be replaced as head coach based on the actual results of the wrestlers he has on the University of Iowa roster. I argue that, based on those real results as seen above, Tom Brands is the second to best coach in NCAA Division I in the Cael/PSU-era. For my money is there is Cael, then there is Brands (MAYBE Grey and Bormet), and then there is everyone else.

I'm surprised Iowa has only been second twice since 2013.  Daton Fix alone has been second five times in that period.  Even though their average is 2nd best, they're clearly a lot closer to 4 than they are to 1.  The question is can another coach do better than Brands?  My view is that most can't, but a couple of coaching candidates probably could do better.  

Edited April 1 by billyhoyle

[wrestle87]

2 questions I have, are:

1) Does anybody know anything about the NIL situations surrounding each school?  Is this an entirely dark market, or is there any documentation or word of mouth as to the amount of funds that are in the vicinity of each program?  I ask this after watching basketball (for family reasons) today, and hearing about how one school was able to put together a workaround to get an international athlete NIL money that allowed him to still comply with his student visa. 

2) @Wrestleknownothing you are an excel-based person like I am, do you have a tab with the team race results by year that you'd be willing to share that we could take a look at by any chance?  Looking at random txt lists is proving a bit difficult for my brain to visualize.   

I think it would be quite meaningful to this topic to be able to see exactly who is placing above and immediately below iowa each year during their tenure.

 

[fishbane]

9 hours ago, Tom formerly Tofurky said:

As we know, rankings are subjective. Maybe T&T&Co. are homing in on the kids who have proverbial chips on their shoulders and telling them that they are better than some goofball's pretend number assigned to them on some goofy ranking/recruiting service. Remember, these are guys who wrestled angry, so they know those kids and just how to work with them.

I see this as kind of a combination of my 2) and 3) though my list wasn't mean to be exhaustive.

9 hours ago, Tom formerly Tofurky said:

I agree with point two. I'd say that they do it even better than PSU does. That being said, here we are discussing anyone who is not in the top 25. Speaking for myself alone, I believe that number is far too narrow as an indicator of success. Does it help? Of course it does. Is it the be all end all of recruiting? Not at all.

 

So for point two I think that is a big component of the Brands's success.  I don't know that they do it better than Sanderson/PSU and I would question whether it's a practical route to a championship to start with recruiting that is 2 notches below PSU and hope to get more out of them than Sanderson can get out of his guys. 

In 2021, Iowa's only championship since 2010, they kind of used all three components combining some really good recruits combined with some transfers.  

Lee, DeSanto, Eierman, Murin, Young, Marinelli, Kemmerer, Assad, Warner, Cassioppi.  The only guys in the lineup that were not top 25 recruits were Eierman (37) who transferred in already a 3x AA, Murin (44), and Assad (29).  

9 hours ago, Tom formerly Tofurky said:

Again, your assertion that anyone outside of the Top 25 is "second tier" rubs me the wrong way. We're talking about kids here who peak at all different ages.

Jordan Burroughs was barely a top 100 recruit coming out of high school and he is perhaps the greatest American wrestler of all time.  Certainly very good wrestlers get missed or develop later, but there is a correlation.

Here is a list of every wrestler Tom Brands has coached to a national title

Mark Perry (2, OK/NJ), Brent Metcalf (2, Mi), Jay Borschel (IA), Matt McDonough (2, IA), Derek St. John (IA), Tony Ramos (IL), Cory Clark (IA), Spencer Lee (3, PA).

All of them were top 25 recruits out of high school.  If we expand it to Hawkeyes Tom Brands has coached to the an NCAA final the list would look like this

Mark Perry (OK/NJ), Joey Slaton (IA), Brent Metcalf (Mi), Dan Dennis (IL), Montell Marion (IA), Jay Borschel (IA), Matt McDonough (IA), Derek St. John (IA), Tony Ramos (IL), Cory Clark (IA), Thomas Gilman (IA/NE), Brandon Sorenson (IA), Spencer Lee (PA), Jaydin Eierman (MO), Michael Kemmerer (PA), Jacob Warner (IL), Real Woods (IL), Drake Ayala (IA).

Dennis and Marion are the only guys who were not top 100 recruits out of high school.  Brands certainly got a lot out of them, but he did not recognize them as having chips on their shoulder or being better than their ranking in the recruiting process.  They were recruited by his predecessor, Zalesky.  The only others that were not top 25 recruits out of high school were Sorenson (27) and Eierman (37).  Sorenson was barely outside the top 25 and whist Eierman was a bit farther down he transferred to Iowa after placing 3rd NCAAs.

10 hours ago, Tom formerly Tofurky said:

Number three applies to every coach in the country who struggles to fill a weight class. Along with that, we don't always know why said kid went said place out of high school. Of the list of names you made above who transferred into Iowa from other universities, I do know the "inside scoop" on two of them and why they didn't go to Iowa out of the gates. It wasn't the coaching, but the financial support available to them at those times.

Indeed.  Everyone does moneyball as they are all working with limited resources to make the best team possible and all are still limited to 9.9 scholarships.

10 hours ago, Tom formerly Tofurky said:

I'll push back on your "top three" assertion. PSU, that's a no brainer. Neither Ohio State nor Oklahoma State have finished ahead of Iowa at Nationals since before COVID. That was more than five years ago now. I'm not sure how they fall into the "top three" when Iowa is the second most consistent team in the country behind Cael & Company..

...

I appreciate the discussion and your well-thought out insights. I still feel strongly that Iowa is a firm #2 team in all of NCAA wrestling, and this is coming from an Oklahoma State and Lehigh fan.

#SaveTomBrandsJob

Top three was in reference to recruiting and not results at NCAAs.  On average Iowa has been second best at NCAAs during Brands's tenure.  

I never said Brands should be fired and I think Zalesky deserves more credit than he receives.  If Iowa/Brands fails to win a title next season that will give Iowa 1 title in the past 15 years.   That is the same success rate Tommy Chesbro had at OSU when he was let go and he was coming off consecutive 2nd place finishes to go along with Big 8 titles and undefeated dual seasons.  The expectations are high at Iowa and OSU.

[Le duke]

The Iowa brand is stale. With the exception of some transfers, all of them wrestle the same. Some are better than others. Can't scramble or use far ankle defense, have trouble finishing against similarly skilled wrestlers.

[Lordnelson]

Tough to evaluate a Head Coach on just finish alone as many have pointed out, but the big picture or culmination of a lot of things could prove a critical look at the program and if a change is needed.

1. Recruiting: losing the best kids on the bus to PSU, period.  PSU does a great job but process of development is much easier when you start with the best.  Iowa got Lee, and he did as expected.  They need to land more straight up ready made products and not lose them to other schools, specifically PSU and tOSU.

2. Development: I think they are on par with the best in this area.  They produce "surprises" on the national scene every year, maybe not to Iowa homers, but to the rest of the country.  They are starting at the middle and bringing guys into the conversation.  I see Arnold being a great example of this in the next few years as one of the few top recruits landed that I believe will perform to the expectations.

3. NIL: Mixed.  Early in the game but they are getting mileage out of these transfers.  Caliendo, Franek, and Woods all placed and met at the very least minimum expectations.  

4. Institutional Control: They've had a rough couple of years.  The gambling thing is a joke for sure but still a rule and they got whacked.  Call it what you want, it is a negative knock.  Actively recruiting the Ferraris and all that comes with it.  AJ is what he is and bringing in Angelo cost them arguably their best recruit in Chittum to their direct instate rival.  Again, they went all in on the gamble and until proven otherwise they are in the loss column on this.

5. Stale wrestling: They have become a garden variety B10 product and aren't all that exciting to watch.  Other than Caliendo and Kennedy they really don't wrestle that offensively consistent against the best competition.  Since they limit their exposure as well, it seems to continually cost them.  

6. RTC: Yikes.  Taken some real hits here.  Next few weeks a great opportunity to change this.  

 

Who do you replace him with?  Hawkeye wrestling nation embraces their own so it isn't that easy to bring in someone outside that will put an entirely new face on the sport for them.  Being in the top 5 consistently and winning in recent years makes it difficult to toss him.  Don't see a change coming soon but the conversation is warranted.

[Maxwell Smart]

This topic has been brought up several times in the past 2 years, and each time the responses are more in depth and make for great reading.  Thanks for all the excellent points made by all.