Wrestleknownothing Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 Reminder: I use Intermat, Flo, and Wrestlestat individual rankings. I treat the rankings like they are seeds. EP (expected points) are based on the average advancement and placement points scored by each seed from 2010 - 2022. Max Place & Adv assume each wrester wrestles to seed and takes the most optimal path (advances in the championship bracket as far as possible). Mean Place & Adv assumes each wrestler wrestles to seed but takes the average path for places that have multiple paths. Expected AA is the probability weighted number of All-Americans a team can expect. All sorts are based on EP. Intermat Pre-Season Top 20 Intermat Current Top 20 With Missouri, Cornell and Iowa State moving up it looks to be a three team battle for the last two podium slots. Meanwhile Arizona State, and Ohio State head in the other direction having dropped 12 and 14 points, respectively, from their expected totals. Both teams will look to reverse what has been a rough start to the season. At the top, there has been a modest tightening, but PSU still holds an expected 16.1 point lead over Iowa. 1 Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrestleknownothing Posted December 6, 2022 Author Share Posted December 6, 2022 Flo Pre-Season Top 20 Flo Current Top 20 Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrestleknownothing Posted December 6, 2022 Author Share Posted December 6, 2022 Wrestlestat Pre-Season Top 20 Wrestlestat Current Top 20 Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ionel Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 With all your mathematical wisdom, please explain Nebraska. Didn't they just win a tough tournament against pretty much all the top teams not ranked #1 or #2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jajensen09 Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said: Reminder: I use Intermat, Flo, and Wrestlestat individual rankings. I treat the rankings like they are seeds. EP (expected points) are based on the average advancement and placement points scored by each seed from 2010 - 2022. Max Place & Adv assume each wrester wrestles to seed and takes the most optimal path (advances in the championship bracket as far as possible). Mean Place & Adv assumes each wrestler wrestles to seed but takes the average path for places that have multiple paths. Expected AA is the probability weighted number of All-Americans a team can expect. All sorts are based on EP. Intermat Pre-Season Top 20 Intermat Current Top 20 With Missouri, Cornell and Iowa State moving up it looks to be a three team battle for the last two podium slots. Meanwhile Arizona State, and Ohio State head in the other direction having dropped 12 and 14 points, respectively, from their expected totals. Both teams will look to reverse what has been a rough start to the season. At the top, there has been a modest tightening, but PSU still holds an expected 16.1 point lead over Iowa. 4.6 AAs for Iowa??? I see 3 maybe 4. Nebraska AAs should be around 5 at least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrestleknownothing Posted December 6, 2022 Author Share Posted December 6, 2022 20 minutes ago, ionel said: With all your mathematical wisdom, please explain Nebraska. Didn't they just win a tough tournament against pretty much all the top teams not ranked #1 or #2? You mean teams not ranked #1, #2, #3, #4, or #5. Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrestleknownothing Posted December 6, 2022 Author Share Posted December 6, 2022 10 minutes ago, jajensen09 said: 4.6 AAs for Iowa??? I see 3 maybe 4. Nebraska AAs should be around 5 at least! Here are the probability of AAing by weight, by date, by service for Nebraska Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrestleknownothing Posted December 6, 2022 Author Share Posted December 6, 2022 12 minutes ago, jajensen09 said: 4.6 AAs for Iowa??? I see 3 maybe 4. Nebraska AAs should be around 5 at least! Same for Iowa Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jajensen09 Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 Just now, Wrestleknownothing said: Same for Iowa Yeah, after this weekend alot has changed. Robb, hardy, labbs should be locks. Liam, Bubba Wilson, Lenny pinto, and alred all have great chances to AA. Eye test Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrestleknownothing Posted December 6, 2022 Author Share Posted December 6, 2022 (edited) 6 minutes ago, jajensen09 said: Yeah, after this weekend alot has changed. Robb, hardy, labbs should be locks. Liam, Bubba Wilson, Lenny pinto, and alred all have great chances to AA. Eye test The last column takes into account this past weekend. The reality is there is no such thing as a lock. Even a #1 seed is not a guarantee. In the last 12 tournaments (2010 - 2022) only 98.33% of #1 seeds finished in the top 8 (118 of 120). Injuries and upsets happen. Edited December 6, 2022 by Wrestleknownothing Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ionel Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 15 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said: You mean teams not ranked #1, #2, #3, #4, or #5. from your posted intermat table: 1. Nebraska 137.5 2. NC State 127.5 3. South Dakota State 123 #7. 4. Michigan 96.5 5. Northern Iowa 96 #6. 6. Arizona State 89 #5. 7. Cornell 83.5 #4. 8. Ohio State 82.5 8. Oregon State 82.5 10. Northwestern 81.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jajensen09 Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, ionel said: from your posted intermat table: 1. Nebraska 137.5 2. NC State 127.5 3. South Dakota State 123 #7. 4. Michigan 96.5 5. Northern Iowa 96 #6. 6. Arizona State 89 #5. 7. Cornell 83.5 #4. 8. Ohio State 82.5 8. Oregon State 82.5 10. Northwestern 81.5 Doesn't take it to iowa being wayyy overrated like usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrestleknownothing Posted December 6, 2022 Author Share Posted December 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, ionel said: from your posted intermat table: 1. Nebraska 137.5 2. NC State 127.5 3. South Dakota State 123 #7. 4. Michigan 96.5 5. Northern Iowa 96 #6. 6. Arizona State 89 #5. 7. Cornell 83.5 #4. 8. Ohio State 82.5 8. Oregon State 82.5 10. Northwestern 81.5 I am confused. What are the numbers and ranks you typed in? Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ionel Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 1 minute ago, Wrestleknownothing said: I am confused. What are the numbers and ranks you typed in? Those are the teams' rank in you intermat table below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrestleknownothing Posted December 6, 2022 Author Share Posted December 6, 2022 Just now, jajensen09 said: Doesn't take it to iowa being wayyy overrated like usual If you look at how often Iowa beats their seed then they are slightly underrated on average with some notable exceptions in each direction. If you look at their average finish to seed (which always skews negative if you are seeded high) then they are slightly overrated, not way overrated: Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gus Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 11 minutes ago, jajensen09 said: Yeah, after this weekend alot has changed. Robb, hardy, labbs should be locks. Liam, Bubba Wilson, Lenny pinto, and alred all have great chances to AA. Eye test Hardy had a great tournament and surely could AA but I would hardly call him a lock. Flo has him at 5th, intermat has him at 10th. This weight class is wide open. I would be surprised if Alirez, Matthews and Woods did not AA but outside of that its all up in the air. 29 minutes ago, jajensen09 said: 4.6 AAs for Iowa??? I see 3 maybe 4. Nebraska AAs should be around 5 at least! Iowa is highly likely to AA Spencer, Woods, Warner, Cass. Decent chance for Murin, PK and Assad. Outside chance for Teske & Brands. Low chance for Siebrecht. Nebraska is highly likely to AA Robb and Labbs. Decent chance for Hardy and Cronin. Outside chance for Alred & Pinto. Low chance for Bubba Wilson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrestleknownothing Posted December 6, 2022 Author Share Posted December 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, ionel said: Those are the teams' rank in you intermat table below. I do not think that is correct. Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrestleknownothing Posted December 6, 2022 Author Share Posted December 6, 2022 7 minutes ago, jajensen09 said: Doesn't take it to iowa being wayyy overrated like usual Same data for Nebraska, if you are interested: Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ionel Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 1 minute ago, Wrestleknownothing said: I do not think that is correct. Well thats why I inserted the table, it shows Ohio St #4 etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jajensen09 Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 26 minutes ago, Gus said: Hardy had a great tournament and surely could AA but I would hardly call him a lock. Flo has him at 5th, intermat has him at 10th. This weight class is wide open. I would be surprised if Alirez, Matthews and Woods did not AA but outside of that its all up in the air. Iowa is highly likely to AA Spencer, Woods, Warner, Cass. Decent chance for Murin, PK and Assad. Outside chance for Teske & Brands. Low chance for Siebrecht. Nebraska is highly likely to AA Robb and Labbs. Decent chance for Hardy and Cronin. Outside chance for Alred & Pinto. Low chance for Bubba Wilson 197 is wide open. Alred beat Bastida #2 guy last year. Pinto beat returning AA this week. Hardy looks like he could make finals. Bubba Wilson beat Cam Camine last year. 125 is wide open for AAs, Cronin has a great shot. As far as locks for Iowa aas. They have 3 lee, woods and Cass. Warner 50/50 shot. Outside of that Iowa doesn't have anyone else that will AA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gus Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 26 minutes ago, jajensen09 said: 197 is wide open. Alred beat Bastida #2 guy last year. Pinto beat returning AA this week. Hardy looks like he could make finals. Bubba Wilson beat Cam Camine last year. 125 is wide open for AAs, Cronin has a great shot. As far as locks for Iowa aas. They have 3 lee, woods and Cass. Warner 50/50 shot. Outside of that Iowa doesn't have anyone else that will AA. Warner is a 3x AA and has proved he steps up at NCAA's so it would be very surprising if he did not AA. Group 1 - Alred, Pinto, Cronin, Bubba Wilson Group 2 - Murin, PK, Assad, Brands, Teske Group 2 surely looks more likely to have an AA than group 1 if you take off your corn colored glasses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyingcement Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 1 minute ago, Gus said: Warner is a 3x AA and has proved he steps up at NCAA's so it would be very surprising if he did not AA. Group 1 - Alred, Pinto, Cronin, Bubba Wilson Group 2 - Murin, PK, Assad, Brands, Teske Group 2 surely looks more likely to have an AA than group 1 if you take off your corn colored glasses. Murin is the only one either list I think will AA this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gus Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 6 minutes ago, flyingcement said: Murin is the only one either list I think will AA this year If I were to rank them on likelihood to AA I would get 3 or 4 iowa wrestlers before a husker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jajensen09 Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 50 minutes ago, Gus said: Warner is a 3x AA and has proved he steps up at NCAA's so it would be very surprising if he did not AA. Group 1 - Alred, Pinto, Cronin, Bubba Wilson Group 2 - Murin, PK, Assad, Brands, Teske Group 2 surely looks more likely to have an AA than group 1 if you take off your corn colored glasses. You forgot burwick. As well. Bring as alred and pinto both beat AAs this weekend I'm their young careers. Also Allred beat batista last year. I'll take group A. Group B has proven to never win big matches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jajensen09 Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 Robb and labs are locks. Hardy getting there. Then you throw in the rest and look out!! Loaded!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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