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Why Penn State Won't Win The NCAA Tournament


PortaJohn

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I tend to construe this post as provocative and not-so-serious, but if I were to indulge I would raise at least 10 points to consider:

1.  PSU will likely take all 10 starters to the Big Dance this year.  Other years, they have only had as few as 8 go and still won it handily.

2. A few weeks ago, many people were talking about PSU breaking the all-time scoring record.  What has transpired since then?  Answer: not much besides the end of the season approaching and long break before conference championships so there is not much to discuss besides counterfactuals and hypotheticals.

3. Who has a reasonable chance of beating PSU even if they falter?  I don't see anyone reasonably suggesting another team can do it.   Take a look at the projected gap in predicted team scoring numbers based on seeds that FLO, Intermat, and wrestling sites have put together.  It's a long way to catch up.

4.  PSU tends to rise historically to the occasion at Nationals.  Most other teams do not.  It's just a statistical fact.  Need we remind ourselves that PSU has won 10 team titles in the last 12 years, including the last 2.

5.  PSU has recently had all ten guys ranked in the top 10 (or 12) something that hasn't happened in their team history ever, if memory serves.  5 of their guys are currently ranked #1 by all the ranking services.

6.  PSU presently has 6 UNDEFEATED wrestlers heading into conference action.  I repeat: 6.

7. PSU has two 3-time NCAA champions on their roster as well as 2 finalists  (second place) from last year, along with a 3rd place finisher, fourth place finisher, and a fifth place finisher.  That's 7 returning All Americans. 

8.  Despite the drop in bonus numbers last year, PSU usually scores more than almost all other teams in bonus points.

9.  PSU has 3 guys on their roster who have not surrendered a takedown all year (CS, AB, and GK).

10.  PSU has one not-so-secret weapon (Sanderson) and one more secret weapon (Cunningham).

Can PSU falter and the team race get closer than expected?  It's certainly possible.  Is it likely?  Well, if you think so, I'm sure there is somewhere you can place a bet on that.  Hell, maybe even Jimmy C. will step forward.  

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3 hours ago, SocraTease said:

4.  PSU tends to rise historically to the occasion at Nationals. 

phenomenal assessment but this quote from SocraTease ties in his other 9 points quite nicely like a tightly wound rope. 

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125 Ayala 2, Smith 5 DeAugustino 9, Davis 10, Camacho 18 - NC STATE WEAK

133 Ragusin 4, Orine 5, Nagao 8, Van Dee 12, Schriever 31- IOWA WEAK, NEBRASKA WEAK

141 Bartlett 1, Woods 3, Hardy 6, Lemley 7, Jack 8

149 Lovett 1, Gomez 4, Arrington 5, Kasak 9, Rathjen 13

157 Haines 1, Scott 5, Franek 9, Robb 11, Lewan 16

165 Mesenbrink 5, Caliendo 7, Amine 9, Taylor 12, Fields 15- NC ST, NEBRASKA WEAK

174 Starocci 1, Griffith 3, Kennedy 5, Wilson 47, Faison 53- NC ST, NEBRASKA WEAK

184 Pinto 5, Truax 8, Fishback 9, Bullock 24, Riggins 57- IOWA WEAK, MICHIGAN WEAK

197 Brooks 1, Hidlay 2, Allred 10, Glazier 13, Striggow 99- MICHIGAN WEAK

285 Kerkvliet 1, Davison 6, Trephan 10, Hill 28, Hutmacher 102- NEBRASKA WEAK, IOWA WEAK

Michigan is weak at 2

NC ST/Iowa are weak at 3

Nebraska is weak at 4

         PSU    Michigan    NC-ST    Iowa    Nebraska

125    12          7                12              3          6

133     6          4                  7            20        12

141      2           7                8                5         4

149      12          7               6                8         1

157        3          6               5                 7       8

165        3           12          20               8        16

174         1            6           DNP            12       DNP

184         4          DNP        8                 DNP   6

197        1           DNP         3                 7         12

285        1          4              12               20       DNP  

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5 hours ago, SocraTease said:

I tend to construe this post as provocative and not-so-serious, but if I were to indulge I would raise at least 10 points to consider:

1.  PSU will likely take all 10 starters to the Big Dance this year.  Other years, they have only had as few as 8 go and still won it handily.

2. A few weeks ago, many people were talking about PSU breaking the all-time scoring record.  What has transpired since then?  Answer: not much besides the end of the season approaching and long break before conference championships so there is not much to discuss besides counterfactuals and hypotheticals.

3. Who has a reasonable chance of beating PSU even if they falter?  I don't see anyone reasonably suggesting another team can do it.   Take a look at the projected gap in predicted team scoring numbers based on seeds that FLO, Intermat, and wrestling sites have put together.  It's a long way to catch up.

4.  PSU tends to rise historically to the occasion at Nationals.  Most other teams do not.  It's just a statistical fact.  Need we remind ourselves that PSU has won 10 team titles in the last 12 years, including the last 2.

5.  PSU has recently had all ten guys ranked in the top 10 (or 12) something that hasn't happened in their team history ever, if memory serves.  5 of their guys are currently ranked #1 by all the ranking services.

6.  PSU presently has 6 UNDEFEATED wrestlers heading into conference action.  I repeat: 6.

7. PSU has two 3-time NCAA champions on their roster as well as 2 finalists  (second place) from last year, along with a 3rd place finisher, fourth place finisher, and a fifth place finisher.  That's 7 returning All Americans. 

8.  Despite the drop in bonus numbers last year, PSU usually scores more than almost all other teams in bonus points.

9.  PSU has 3 guys on their roster who have not surrendered a takedown all year (CS, AB, and GK).

10.  PSU has one not-so-secret weapon (Sanderson) and one more secret weapon (Cunningham).

Can PSU falter and the team race get closer than expected?  It's certainly possible.  Is it likely?  Well, if you think so, I'm sure there is somewhere you can place a bet on that.  Hell, maybe even Jimmy C. will step forward.  

The talk of them breaking the scoring record died down after Van Ness got injured, IMO

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9 hours ago, ionel said:

Why Penn State Won't Win The NCAA Tournament?

Back to the question:  because Wkn ate all the ice-cream and they closed down the Creamery.  Did I win?

Don't forget you're on Post a Cinnabon thread next week.  It's in the contract.

I Don't Agree With What I Posted

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Who is going to catch them?  PSU hasn't had a close match in the toughest conference.  Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Missouri and NC State are all real good but aren't going to catch them.

Lehigh University Park, Pa. W 30-10
12/10/2023 Hofstra University Park, Pa. W 43-10
1/5/2024 at Oregon State Corvallis, Ore. W 36-3
1/14/2024 Indiana University Park, Pa. W 46-0
1/19/2024 at Michigan Ann Arbor, Mich. W 27-9
1/21/2024 at Michigan State East Lansing, Mich. W 35-0
1/28/2024 at Maryland College Park, MD W 42-6
2/2/2024 Ohio State University Park, PA W 28-9
2/9/2024 at Iowa Iowa City, Iowa W 29-6
2/12/2024 Rutgers University Park, Pa. W 35-3
2/18/2024 Nebraska University Park, Pa. W 22-13
2/25/2024 Edinboro

 

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1 hour ago, KLCarnegieTech_1969 said:

Who is going to catch them?  PSU hasn't had a close match in the toughest conference.  Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Missouri and NC State are all real good but aren't going to catch them.

Lehigh University Park, Pa. W 30-10
12/10/2023 Hofstra University Park, Pa. W 43-10
1/5/2024 at Oregon State Corvallis, Ore. W 36-3
1/14/2024 Indiana University Park, Pa. W 46-0
1/19/2024 at Michigan Ann Arbor, Mich. W 27-9
1/21/2024 at Michigan State East Lansing, Mich. W 35-0
1/28/2024 at Maryland College Park, MD W 42-6
2/2/2024 Ohio State University Park, PA W 28-9
2/9/2024 at Iowa Iowa City, Iowa W 29-6
2/12/2024 Rutgers University Park, Pa. W 35-3
2/18/2024 Nebraska University Park, Pa. W 22-13
2/25/2024 Edinboro

 

There has been a #1 seed lose in the first round as recently as 2007, so......

Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge

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