171.5 ??????

[Wrestleknownothing]

We have new rankings from Intermat. I am tingly all over.

What about the ones who shall not be named?

Will They?

Won't They?

The suspense is too much.

Based on my expected points...They will not. Bummer (fantastic?) I know.

My expected points are based on the average outcome by seed from 2010 to 2023.

But we all know They are smarter than the average bear. So what does that look like?

Well They tend to hit their seed just about spot on. I have shared these average finishes by seed before. Where others tend to miss their seed on average, They do not.

So instead of using expected points for Them we could use points earned if the finish equals the seed, or in this case ranking. Based on that I have Them at 137 advancement and placement points. Normally expected bonus would give them another 24 points putting Them at 161 points.

But this is not a normal year. This is the year of the THREEEEEEEE. Based on some highly questionable assumptions I think bonus points will go from 0.46 per match to 0.61 (+32.7%) this year. That gives Them an extra 7.8 points, but lets call it 8 because we have never been accused of being stingy.

Now the total is 169.

Oh, so close, but sorry, no. It will still take all four number ones winning it and some outperformance (or seed improvement between now and March) for Bartlett, Kasak, Mesenbrink, Truax, Nagao, and Davis (or any combination thereof).

The Other Guys

As for the race for second. Man has that one gotten interesting. In the pre-season the spread from second to tenth was 28 points. By then end of the year it widened to 34 points. A month later it is down to 15 points.

If you tell me who is going to go on a heater in March, I will tell you who finishes second.

 

[Mr. PeanutButter]

Interesting to see how much better PSU is at getting their 4 seeds to outperform relative to the field. 

Great work as always. 169 is a beautifully poetic number 

[Wrestleknownothing]

10 minutes ago, Mr. PeanutButter said:

Interesting to see how much better PSU is at getting their 4 seeds to outperform relative to the field. 

Great work as always. 169 is a beautifully poetic number 

Thought you might like that number.

And I wouldn't read too much into that four seed specifically as there have only been two of them. Kerkvliet was seeded fourth and finished fourth in 2022. Megaludis was seeded fourth and finished second in 2013.

Edited January 30 by Wrestleknownothing