Penn State has 9/10 starters ranked in the top 10 Intermat

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

Only Kasak is outside the top 10.  Mesenbrink at #7 is their 2nd lowest ranked wrestler.

 

125 Davis - 4

133 Nagao -5

141 Bartlett -2

149 Kasak - 12

157 Haines - 1

165 Mesenbrink - 7

174 Starocci - 1

184 Truax - 5

197 Brooks - 1

HWT Kerkvliet - 1

[Le duke]

I thought Iowa was the clear favorite, Jimmy?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Thumper]

1 hour ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Only Kasak is outside the top 10.  Mesenbrink at #7 is their 2nd lowest ranked wrestler.

 

125 Davis - 4

133 Nagao -5

141 Bartlett -2

149 Kasak - 12

157 Haines - 1

165 Mesenbrink - 7

174 Starocci - 1

184 Truax - 5

197 Brooks - 1

HWT Kerkvliet - 1

How anyone can rank Mesenbrink at # 7 is beyond me.  Definitely too low for that guy IMO. 

Also I think Kasak will be in the top 10 soon.  His only loss this season was a 4-1 loss to his Penn State teammate Beau Bartlett at 141 lbs (back on Nov. 19th at a tournament).  His highest ranked opponent to date at 149 lbs (Graham Rooks of Indiana # 46 on WrestleStat) was beaten by Tech Fall (15-0 in 6:59)

[ionel]

They are clearly peaking too early, Mizzu should win it this year.  

[Wrestleknownothing]

8 minutes ago, Thumper said:

How anyone can rank Mesenbrink at # 7 is beyond me.  Definitely too low for that guy IMO. 

Also I think Kasak will be in the top 10 soon.  His only loss this season was a 4-1 loss to his Penn State teammate Beau Bartlett at 141 lbs (back on Nov. 19th at a tournament).  His highest ranked opponent to date at 149 lbs (Graham Rooks of Indiana # 46 on WrestleStat) was beaten by Tech Fall (15-0 in 6:59)

Anchoring effect. If you start too low it takes a lot of time to move up.

[Pinnacle]

Everyone who needed Connabon to inform them of PSU's talent raise your hand. 

[ionel]

4 minutes ago, Pinnacle said:

Everyone who needed Connabon to inform them of PSU's talent raise your hand. 

Is there still a chance the 3 Ferrari are on the Iowa roster by March?  Just a chance?  

[FanOfPurdueWrestling]

They’ll only have 3 champs, this is a down year. 

[ionel]

4 minutes ago, FanOfPurdueWrestling said:

They’ll only have 3 champs, this is a down year. 

So who do you think will win 125 if not Davis?  

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

12 minutes ago, FanOfPurdueWrestling said:

They’ll only have 3 champs, this is a down year. 

Cstar, Brooks and Kerk

[BAC]

9 of 10 in the top 5.... now THAT would be remarkable.  

[FanOfPurdueWrestling]

51 minutes ago, ionel said:

So who do you think will win 125 if not Davis?  

You must see my username…. Obviously it’s going to be Ramos.

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

24 minutes ago, BAC said:

9 of 10 in the top 5.... now THAT would be remarkable.  

I think Mesenbrink is likely to end the year in the top 5.  Probably not Kasak though.

[Tigerfan]

Didn’t PSU start the season with 8/10 ranked top 3? That was/still is impressive. And maybe even 7 of those were either 1 or 2. Would it shock anyone who’s paid attention the last decade if PSU predictably over performs at NCAA’s and has 10 AA’s and 7 champs? Not likely, but certainly not shocking. 

[steamboat_charlie]

17 minutes ago, Tigerfan said:

Would it shock anyone who’s paid attention the last decade if PSU predictably over performs at NCAA’s and has 10 AA’s and 7 champs? Not likely, but certainly not shocking. 

Uhhh... let me stop you right there.  

7 champs would be shocking.  Very shocking.  I would be shocked.  Electrocuted.  

10 AA's I think many of us were speculating before the season could be in the cards--seems less likely now with SVN down, but it wouldn't shock me if it still happens.  

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

25 minutes ago, Tigerfan said:

Didn’t PSU start the season with 8/10 ranked top 3? That was/still is impressive. And maybe even 7 of those were either 1 or 2. Would it shock anyone who’s paid attention the last decade if PSU predictably over performs at NCAA’s and has 10 AA’s and 7 champs? Not likely, but certainly not shocking. 

I think it was only 7 (Bartlett, SVN, Haines, Starocci, Truax, Brooks and Kerkvliet)

[Wrestleknownothing]

31 minutes ago, Tigerfan said:

Didn’t PSU start the season with 8/10 ranked top 3? That was/still is impressive. And maybe even 7 of those were either 1 or 2. Would it shock anyone who’s paid attention the last decade if PSU predictably over performs at NCAA’s and has 10 AA’s and 7 champs? Not likely, but certainly not shocking. 

Yes.

Nagao - 3
Bartlett - 3
Shayne Van Ness - 2
Levi Haines - 1
Carter Starocci - 1
Bernie Truax - 2
Aaron Brooks - 1
Greg Kerkvliet - 1

Edited January 24 by Wrestleknownothing

[Wrestleknownothing]

9 minutes ago, steamboat_charlie said:

Uhhh... let me stop you right there.  

7 champs would be shocking.  Very shocking.  I would be shocked.  Electrocuted.  

10 AA's I think many of us were speculating before the season could be in the cards--seems less likely now with SVN down, but it wouldn't shock me if it still happens.  

Indeed, 7 would be shocking, even after applying the PSU bump. Without the PSU bump the total looks like 2 - 3 this year. Maybe 3 - 4 with the bump.

For perspective a #1 seed historically wins just over half the time (52.3%).

[PortaJohn]

We should stop being so harsh to Jimmy.  It's not like we knew this.  I'm quite shocked.  If only wrestling media outlets would've kept us up to date with how good PSU is.  Even FRL, they haven't even touched on PSU wrestlers rankings all year.  It's not like they did a segment on, "what's more likely PSU with 6 champs or 10AA's.". Thank you Jimmy for keeping us up to date

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

My predictions as of this time:

125 Davis - 7th

133 Nagao - 4th

141 Bartlett - 4th

149 Kasak - R12

157 Haines - 3rd

165 Mesenbrink - 3rd

174 Starocci - 1st

184 Truax - 4th

197 Brooks - 1st

Hwt Kerk - 1st

[Tigerfan]

2 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Indeed, 7 would be shocking, even after applying the PSU bump. Without the PSU bump the total looks like 2 - 3 this year. Maybe 3 - 4 with the bump.

For perspective a #1 seed historically wins just over half the time (52.3%).

But what about a PSU guy seeded #1 in the last decade or so? And is there a team with more champs that weren’t seeded #1 than PSU? Is that the PSU bump to which you are referring? Maybe I’m being too fatalistic, but moving forward I don’t see how the field narrows the gap, or God forbid, overcomes it, with all of the systemic advantages transfer/NIL provides PSU. I’ll be more shocked if PSU ever fields a team that has less than 5 champs than if they have 7 or even 8. 

[Wrestleknownothing]

10 minutes ago, Tigerfan said:

But what about a PSU guy seeded #1 in the last decade or so? And is there a team with more champs that weren’t seeded #1 than PSU? Is that the PSU bump to which you are referring? Maybe I’m being too fatalistic, but moving forward I don’t see how the field narrows the gap, or God forbid, overcomes it, with all of the systemic advantages transfer/NIL provides PSU. I’ll be more shocked if PSU ever fields a team that has less than 5 champs than if they have 7 or even 8. 

Yes, that is the PSU bump. They tend to perform closer to their seed than others. During the Cael Sanderson era it looks like this on a seed vs average finish basis:

And the PSU specific distribution looks like this:

[Wrestleknownothing]

Using the above probabilities it comes out to 4-ish champions. Seven would be a big outlier, even for PSU.

[Tigerfan]

So if I’m reading that correctly, PSU during Cael has had 82%, 82%, 70%, and 100% of its top 4 seeds meet or exceed their seeds, respectively. That seems phenomenal to me. While I understand probabilities and the resulting math would say 7 champs out of 9 top 4 seeds is “unlikely”, the eye test would lead me to not being shocked in the slightest. 

[1032004]

1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Indeed, 7 would be shocking, even after applying the PSU bump. Without the PSU bump the total looks like 2 - 3 this year. Maybe 3 - 4 with the bump.

For perspective a #1 seed historically wins just over half the time (52.3%).

Low probability sure, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see seven. They have two near locks, one additional heavy favorite, and one modest favorite.  Then the only undefeated guy in a wide open field, and two underdogs that are certainly capable of winning.  And that’s not even counting Nagao who has a non-zero chance of winning.