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It's time: Predict the 2024 125 pound NCAA champ


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It's time: Pick the 2024 125 pound NCAA champ   

76 members have voted

  1. 1. Who will be the 2024 125 pound NCAA champ?

    • Ramos (14-3)
      12
    • Noto (10-1)
      5
    • Barnett (14-2)
      3
    • Ungar (10-3)
      0
    • Peterson (7-1)
      0
    • Poulin (7-1)
      2
    • McKee (8-2)
      3
    • DeAugustino (5-1)
      1
    • Kaylor (8-5)
      1
    • Smith (14-3)
      0
    • Volk (12-4)
      1
    • Provo (10-3)
      1
    • Ayala (10-1)
      17
    • Flynn (8-2)
      1
    • Palmer (7-1)
      2
    • Maida (10-0)
      0
    • Surtin (10-1)
      3
    • Davis (9-0)
      10
    • Diakomihalis (11-3)
      1
    • Other
      13

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  • Poll closed on 01/19/2024 at 05:00 PM

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I created my own rankings using these metrics today. I am curious to see how well this predicts All Americans.

30% weight on GRIT (performance in top level matches)

20% weight on Best Win Quality against ranked guys

15% weight on Recent Performances last month

13% weight on Hammer rating (how much you destroy opposition measured taking into account strength of your opposition)

12% weight on Consistency (how your win% pairs up with your strength of schedule)

10% weight on Strength of Schedule

 

This gives me 3 tiers of guys

A TIER

1 Ramos 387, 2 Ayala 385, 3 Spratley 357, 4 Stanich 345

B TIER

5 Flynn 311, 6 Davis 297, 7 Smith 285

C TIER

8 DeAugustino 267, 9 Poulin 260, 10 Provo252, 11(TIE)  Jordan/Surtin 250, 13 Kaylor 244, 14 Noto 242, 15 Volk 240

D TIER

16 McKee 206, 17 Barnett 202, 18 Camacho 195

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24 minutes ago, jmoney said:

I created my own rankings using these metrics today. I am curious to see how well this predicts All Americans.

30% weight on GRIT (performance in top level matches)

20% weight on Best Win Quality against ranked guys

15% weight on Recent Performances last month

13% weight on Hammer rating (how much you destroy opposition measured taking into account strength of your opposition)

12% weight on Consistency (how your win% pairs up with your strength of schedule)

10% weight on Strength of Schedule

 

This gives me 3 tiers of guys

A TIER

1 Ramos 387, 2 Ayala 385, 3 Spratley 357, 4 Stanich 345

B TIER

5 Flynn 311, 6 Davis 297, 7 Smith 285

C TIER

8 DeAugustino 267, 9 Poulin 260, 10 Provo252, 11(TIE)  Jordan/Surtin 250, 13 Kaylor 244, 14 Noto 242, 15 Volk 240

D TIER

16 McKee 206, 17 Barnett 202, 18 Camacho 195

Nice metrics. 

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What’s the over/under on AA’s from the Big 10?  They have 8 title threats IMO (Ramos, Ayala, Davis, McKee, Barnett, DeAugustino, Smith, Peterson - yes I know McCrone beat Peterson but I don’t think he’s a title threat), but I can’t imagine they get more than like 5 AA’s in total.

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1 minute ago, jmoney said:

I think the Over/Under Line has to be around 4.75 to 5.25 . If Barnett, McKee, Smith, or DeAugustino show more consistency it's definitely trending towards 5.25

You may be right - and I would bet the under in that case.  Stanich, Flynn, Spratley, Volk, Provo, Surtin, Camacho, Noto, Poulin, Kaylor are ten guys outside the Big Ten with a solid chance of AAing.  And others like Strickenberger, Ungar, Jordan, Molton, Terukina, who are outside shots.  

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5 minutes ago, flyingcement said:

You may be right - and I would bet the under in that case.  Stanich, Flynn, Spratley, Volk, Provo, Surtin, Camacho, Noto, Poulin, Kaylor are ten guys outside the Big Ten with a solid chance of AAing.  And others like Strickenberger, Ungar, Jordan, Molton, Terukina, who are outside shots.  

If the best versions of Noto, Kaylor, Surtin, Camacho, Smith, McKee, Barnett, DeAugustino show up at NCAA, it's really gonna shake thing up in the consolation brackets!

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5 hours ago, ionel said:

Nice metrics. 

I agree. I actually haven't spent much time thinking about an overall criteria like that.  My rankings have been based on matches this year only and does not take into account momentum.  It's only meant to be an input into an ultimate equation like @jmoney has laid out.  I think it's a fun philosophical exercise to consider what that equation should look like 

Edited by flyingcement
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29 minutes ago, flyingcement said:

I agree. I actually haven't spent much time thinking about an overall criteria like that.  My rankings have been based on matches this year only and does not take into account momentum.  It's only meant to be an input into an ultimate equation like @jmoney has laid out.  I think it's a fun philosophical exercise to consider what that equation should look like 

Its the type of metrics I'd expect or like to see wrestlstat use. 

But maybe he should save room for say

5% odd ball considerations

  do you own a zoo?

  have you recently rolled a car ?

  etc.

Edited by ionel
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20 minutes ago, flyingcement said:

I agree. I actually haven't spent much time thinking about an overall criteria like that.  My rankings have been based on matches this year only and does not take into account momentum.  It's only meant to be an input into an ultimate equation like @jmoney has laid out.  I think it's a fun philosophical exercise to consider what that equation should look like 

Thanks, yeah you motivated me to create a ranking because I have found the Stanich/Camacho/DeAugustino/Davis/Surtin rankings really off all season long. I feel like this weight has had the most volatility all season. I think maybe 197 will be unpredictable again too. 

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6 hours ago, jmoney said:

I created my own rankings using these metrics today. I am curious to see how well this predicts All Americans.

30% weight on GRIT (performance in top level matches)

20% weight on Best Win Quality against ranked guys

15% weight on Recent Performances last month

13% weight on Hammer rating (how much you destroy opposition measured taking into account strength of your opposition)

12% weight on Consistency (how your win% pairs up with your strength of schedule)

10% weight on Strength of Schedule

 

This gives me 3 tiers of guys

A TIER

1 Ramos 387, 2 Ayala 385, 3 Spratley 357, 4 Stanich 345

B TIER

5 Flynn 311, 6 Davis 297, 7 Smith 285

C TIER

8 DeAugustino 267, 9 Poulin 260, 10 Provo252, 11(TIE)  Jordan/Surtin 250, 13 Kaylor 244, 14 Noto 242, 15 Volk 240

D TIER

16 McKee 206, 17 Barnett 202, 18 Camacho 195

McKee and Barnett seem way low here.

Barnett’s only losses are to McKee, Stanich, Ramos and Terukina.  Wins over Flynn and Smith.

McKee’s losses are to Ramos, Ayala x2, Peterson, and Jordan.  Wins over Barnett and Smith.

If I’m not mistaken they are the only 2x AA’s at the weight.  I think they’re a good bet for the podium and possibly winning it all.

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I created my own rankings using these metrics today. I am curious to see how well this predicts All Americans.
30% weight on GRIT (performance in top level matches)
20% weight on Best Win Quality against ranked guys
15% weight on Recent Performances last month
13% weight on Hammer rating (how much you destroy opposition measured taking into account strength of your opposition)
12% weight on Consistency (how your win% pairs up with your strength of schedule)
10% weight on Strength of Schedule
 
This gives me 3 tiers of guys
A TIER
1 Ramos 387, 2 Ayala 385, 3 Spratley 357, 4 Stanich 345
B TIER
5 Flynn 311, 6 Davis 297, 7 Smith 285
C TIER
8 DeAugustino 267, 9 Poulin 260, 10 Provo252, 11(TIE)  Jordan/Surtin 250, 13 Kaylor 244, 14 Noto 242, 15 Volk 240
D TIER
16 McKee 206, 17 Barnett 202, 18 Camacho 195

Are you only considering D1 bouts? Wondering if you are including Stanich’s 11-4 win over returning D3 champ Joziah Fry, which is Fry’s only loss in his past 62 bouts?


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3 hours ago, lu_alum said:


Are you only considering D1 bouts? Wondering if you are including Stanich’s 11-4 win over returning D3 champ Joziah Fry, which is Fry’s only loss in his past 62 bouts?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Even though you didn't ask me - I'll tell you what I've done in those situations.

Wins against: high schoolers, other college divisions, backups, and redshirts - do not count at all for anything

Losses against all of those same individuals count against them as much as they possibly could.  

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FC Rank Wrestler School Conference InterMat FloSports WIN WrestleStat Net Media Rank
1 Eric Barnett Wisconsin Big Ten 3 3 7 2 2
2 Matt Ramos Purdue Big Ten 1 1 1 1 1
3 Nico Provo Stanford PAC 12 16 19 16 21 18
4 Jore Volk Wyoming Big 12 9 14 15 15 12
5 Troy Spratley Oklahoma State Big 12 10 7 6 8 6
6 Cooper Flynn Virginia Tech ACC 4 6 3 10 5
7 Drake Ayala Iowa Big Ten 5 4 2 5 3
8 Noah Surtin Missouri Big 12 8 8 9 9 7
9 Caleb Smith Nebraska Big Ten 12 9 10 12 9
10 Tanner Jordan South Dakota State Big 12 15 13 13 22 16
11 Braeden Davis Penn State Big Ten 6 5 5 6 4
12 Michael DeAugustino Northwestern Big Ten 14 10 11 11 11
13 Brett Ungar Cornell EIWA 13 16 17 20 17
14 Luke Stanich Lehigh EIWA 2 2 51 3 14
15 Brendan McCrone Ohio State Big Ten 22 17 51 17 22
16 Patrick McKee Minnesota Big Ten 11 15 12 7 10
17 Anthony Molton Campbell SoCon 23 30 51 14 23
18 Jakob Camacho North Carolina State ACC 24 20 18 16 19
19 Anthony Noto Lock Haven MAC 21 21 8 4 13
20 Jack Maida American EIWA 29 31 51 26 27
21 Jett Strickenberger West Virginia Big 12 57 22 51 28 31
22 Stevo Poulin Northern Colorado Big 12 7 12 4 13 8
23 Dean Peterson Rutgers Big Ten 19 18 19 23 20
24 Brandon Kaylor Oregon State PAC 12 17 11 14 18 15
25 Blake West Northern Illinois MAC 33 57 51 36 33
26 Trever Anderson Northern Iowa Big 12 26 23 51 19 24
27 Ethan Berginc Army EIWA 32 32 51 30 29
28 Brayden Palmer Chattanooga SoCon 25 57 51 25 32
29 Spencer Moore North Carolina ACC 30 27 51 38 30
30 Kysen Terukina Iowa State Big 12 27 24 51 31 26
31 Dominic Mendez Cal Poly PAC 12 31 57 51 40 34
32 Drew West Gardner-Webb SoCon 57 57 51 42 43
33 Diego Sotelo Harvard EIWA 20 26 51 24 25
34 Sean Spidle Central Michigan MAC 57 57 51 47 47
35 Eli Griffin California Baptist Big 12 28 28 51 34 28
36 Jeremiah Reno Little Rock PAC 12 57 57 51 41 42
37 Max Gallagher Pennsylvania EIWA 57 57 51 27 37
38 Conrad Hendriksen Oklahoma Big 12 57 33 51 39 35
39 Jake Ice Sacred Heart EIWA 57 57 51 60 60
40 Kyle Montaperto Virginia ACC 57 57 51 51 51
41 Tucker Owens Air Force Big 12 57 57 51 44 45
42 Justin Cardani Illinois Big Ten 57 57 51 52 52
43 Tristan Lujan Michigan State Big Ten 57 57 51 43 44
44 Joey Fischer Clarion MAC 57 57 51 37 41
45 Richie Figueroa Arizona State PAC 12 18 25 20 29 21
46 Michael Joyce Brown EIWA 57 57 51 56 56
47 Ryan Henningson North Dakota State Big 12 57 57 51 65 65
48 Kade Davidheiser Bucknell EIWA 57 57 51 77 77
49 Nick Babin Columbia EIWA 57 57 51 35 40
50 Tyler Klinsky Rider MAC 57 57 51 33 39
51 Yusief Lillie Utah Valley Big 12 57 57 51 66 66
52 Benjamin Aranda Cleveland State MAC 57 57 51 57 57
53 Chad Bellis Appalachian State SoCon 57 57 51 32 38
54 Richard Castro-Sandoval Cal State Bakersfield PAC 12 57 57 51 49 49
55 Drew Heethuis Princeton EIWA 57 57 51 48 48
56 Colton Camacho Pittsburgh ACC 57 29 51 46 36
57 Davian Guanajuato Southern Illinois Edwardsville MAC 57 57 51 59 59
58 Desmond Pleasant Drexel EIWA 57 57 51 54 54
59 Tommy Capul Maryland Big Ten 57 57 51 76 76
60 Damion Ryan Bellarmine MAC 57 57 51 71 71
61 Logan Agin Duke ACC 57 57 51 45 46
62 JB Dragovich George Mason MAC 57 57 51 63 63
63 Trenton Dominguez Presbyterian SoCon 57 57 51 75 75
64 Blaine Frazier Indiana Big Ten 57 57 51 50 50
65 Massey Odiotti Northwestern Big Ten 57 57 51 73 73
66 Robbie Sagaris Long Island EIWA 57 57 51 55 55
67 Dylan Acevedo-Switzer Hofstra EIWA 57 57 51 62 62
68 Carson Wagner Binghamton EIWA 57 57 51 53 53
69 Dayton DelViscio Navy EIWA 57 57 51 64 64
70 Malik Hardy Citadel SoCon 57 57 51 58 58
71 Eric Howe Franklin & Marshall EIWA 57 57 51 70 70
72 Enis Ljikovic Davidson SoCon 57 57 51 79 79
73 Max Elton Buffalo MAC 57 57 51 61 61
74 Bronson Garber Bloomsburg MAC 57 57 51 68 68
75 Caleb Edwards Edinboro MAC 57 57 51 72 72
76 Adan Benavidez Kent State MAC 57 57 51 69 69
77 Tony Burke VMI SoCon 57 57 51 78 78
78 Ryan Meek Ohio MAC 57 57 51 74 74
79 Julian Dawson Morgan State EIWA 57 57 51 67 67
80 Austin Kegley Lindenwood MAC 57 57 51 80 80
81 Daniel Graham Queens SoCon 57 57 51 81 81
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13 hours ago, lu_alum said:


Are you only considering D1 bouts? Wondering if you are including Stanich’s 11-4 win over returning D3 champ Joziah Fry, which is Fry’s only loss in his past 62 bouts?


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Normally I would chuckle and laugh you off, but honestly this year is as likely as any that the D3 champ could also win the D1 bracket. 125 is a mess and conference schedules are only giving an illusion of order rather than the reality of chaos.

i am an idiot on the internet

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10 hours ago, flyingcement said:

Even though you didn't ask me - I'll tell you what I've done in those situations.

Wins against: high schoolers, other college divisions, backups, and redshirts - do not count at all for anything

Losses against all of those same individuals count against them as much as they possibly could.  

That explains why you've dropped Stanich so much for the loss to Jax Forrest.

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15 hours ago, 1032004 said:

McKee and Barnett seem way low here.

Barnett’s only losses are to McKee, Stanich, Ramos and Terukina.  Wins over Flynn and Smith.

McKee’s losses are to Ramos, Ayala x2, Peterson, and Jordan.  Wins over Barnett and Smith.

If I’m not mistaken they are the only 2x AA’s at the weight.  I think they’re a good bet for the podium and possibly winning it all.

Barnett and McKee just haven’t wrestled well in tough matches this season. They do have some nice peak wins I gave them credit for. 

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15 hours ago, lu_alum said:


Are you only considering D1 bouts? Wondering if you are including Stanich’s 11-4 win over returning D3 champ Joziah Fry, which is Fry’s only loss in his past 62 bouts?


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I consider any outcome and even gave Davis a loss for that obvious L he took to Ohio State. That said, after seeing multiple top ranked D2-3 guys get regularly teched by D1 mid tier guys I don’t know which D2/3 guys are truly special to be honest. 

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23 hours ago, flyingcement said:

You may be right - and I would bet the under in that case.  Stanich, Flynn, Spratley, Volk, Provo, Surtin, Camacho, Noto, Poulin, Kaylor are ten guys outside the Big Ten with a solid chance of AAing.  And others like Strickenberger, Ungar, Jordan, Molton, Terukina, who are outside shots.  

Damn I love 125

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3 hours ago, bnwtwg said:

Normally I would chuckle and laugh you off, but honestly this year is as likely as any that the D3 champ could also win the D1 bracket. 125 is a mess and conference schedules are only giving an illusion of order rather than the reality of chaos.

There are plenty of non D1 kids and programs that churn out talent. Shawn Streck for example would be a top heavy in D1. 

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