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It's time: Predict the 2024 125 pound NCAA champ


peanut

It's time: Pick the 2024 125 pound NCAA champ   

76 members have voted

  1. 1. Who will be the 2024 125 pound NCAA champ?

    • Ramos (14-3)
      12
    • Noto (10-1)
      5
    • Barnett (14-2)
      3
    • Ungar (10-3)
      0
    • Peterson (7-1)
      0
    • Poulin (7-1)
      2
    • McKee (8-2)
      3
    • DeAugustino (5-1)
      1
    • Kaylor (8-5)
      1
    • Smith (14-3)
      0
    • Volk (12-4)
      1
    • Provo (10-3)
      1
    • Ayala (10-1)
      17
    • Flynn (8-2)
      1
    • Palmer (7-1)
      2
    • Maida (10-0)
      0
    • Surtin (10-1)
      3
    • Davis (9-0)
      10
    • Diakomihalis (11-3)
      1
    • Other
      13

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  • Poll closed on 01/19/2024 at 05:00 PM

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8 hours ago, JBluegill133 said:

National finals preview tonight Ayala vs Ramos.  Would love to see Ayala at the top of the heap when the 125lbs dust settles in March.

Let's see if Ramos brings the mental toughness. Ayala is mentally much stronger but I think Ramos's peak ability is superior.

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Rank Wrestler
18 Luke Stanich
13 Drake Ayala
13 Matt Ramos
12 Jore Volk
10 Troy Spratley
9 Braeden Davis
6 Brett Ungar
6 Cooper Flynn
5 Nico Provo
4 Kysen Terukina
4 Noah Surtin
3 Eric Barnett
3 Jett Strickenberger
1 Caleb Smith
0 Brayden Palmer
0 Michael DeAugustino
0 Tanner Jordan
-2 Jack Maida
-2 Tyler Klinsky
-3 Anthony Noto
-3 Dean Peterson
-3 Eli Griffin
-3 Richie Figueroa
-3 Stevo Poulin
-4 Anthony Molton
-4 Patrick McKee
-4 Spencer Moore
-5 Brandon Kaylor
-6 Brendan McCrone
-6 Colton Camacho
-12 Jakob Camacho
-15 Diego Sotelo
-16 Trever Anderson
-16 Tristan Lujan
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Some big differences between Intermat's and Flo's 125 rankings this deep into the season.

The biggest difference is Brandon Kaylor. Flo has him at 5, Intermat at 15. 

That big diff is probably caused by their second biggest diff. Flo has Troy Spratley at 11 while Intermat has him at 20.

With Kaylor's pinfelling Spratley Sunday, Spratley's rank seems to be the pivot point for Kaylor.

Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge

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11 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Some big differences between Intermat's and Flo's 125 rankings this deep into the season.

The biggest difference is Brandon Kaylor. Flo has him at 5, Intermat at 15. 

That big diff is probably caused by their second biggest diff. Flo has Troy Spratley at 11 while Intermat has him at 20.

With Kaylor's pinfelling Spratley Sunday, Spratley's rank seems to be the pivot point for Kaylor.

Maybe IM ranked him when it was still a 1 pt match and Flo after the fell. 🤷‍♀️

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I got carried away with my 125 data gathering.  If anyone cares to understand, I can walk through the methodology.  Basically I take an average of four rankings (Intermat, Flo, WIN, and WrestleStat) to establish an original order of perceived rankings.  I then award points for match outcomes against all other 125 lbers, but the points awarded are higher if you defeat a high ranked media guy - and largely negative if you lose to an unranked media guy.  I then input by hand the results of every match at 125 this year among the top 55 wrestlers so far (will do the full 80 eventually).

  Wrestler
1 Eric Barnett
2 Jore Volk
3 Nico Provo
4 Matt Ramos
5 Noah Surtin
6 Drake Ayala
7 Caleb Smith
8 Cooper Flynn
9 Troy Spratley
10 Tanner Jordan
11 Brett Ungar
12 Michael DeAugustino
13 Braeden Davis
14 Anthony Noto
15 Dean Peterson
16 Jett Strickenberger
17 Jack Maida
18 Patrick McKee
19 Ethan Berginc
20 Luke Stanich
21 Brandon Kaylor
22 Jakob Camacho
23 Stevo Poulin
24 Spencer Moore
25 Brendan McCrone
26 Anthony Molton
27 Brayden Palmer
28 Richie Figueroa
29 Kysen Terukina
30 Blake West
31 Carlos Negrete
32 Conrad Hendriksen
33 Drew West
34 Trever Anderson
35 Dominic Mendez
36 Diego Sotelo
37 Tristan Lujan
38 Jeremiah Reno
39 Max Gallagher
40 Sean Spidle
41 Justin Cardani
42 Eli Griffin
43 Tucker Owens
44 Kyle Montaperto
45 Nick Babin
46 Blaine Frazier
47 Drew Heethuis
48 Chad Bellis
49 Tyler Klinsky
50 Colton Camacho
51 Richard Castro-Sandoval
52 Joey Fischer
53 Logan Agin
54 Desmond Pleasant
55 Carson Wagner

 

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Rank Wrestler
1 Eric Barnett
2 Jore Volk
3 Nico Provo
4 Matt Ramos
5 Noah Surtin
6 Drake Ayala
7 Tanner Jordan
8 Caleb Smith
9 Cooper Flynn
10 Troy Spratley
11 Braeden Davis
12 Luke Stanich
13 Michael DeAugustino
14 Brett Ungar
15 Anthony Noto
16 Jack Maida
17 Dean Peterson
18 Jett Strickenberger
19 Stevo Poulin
20 Ethan Berginc
21 Patrick McKee
22 Blake West
23 Drew West
24 Brendan McCrone
25 Brandon Kaylor
26 Kysen Terukina
27 Brayden Palmer
28 Anthony Molton
29 Jakob Camacho
30 Spencer Moore
31 Jared Brunner
32 Trever Anderson
33 Carlos Negrete
34 Diego Sotelo
35 Conrad Hendriksen
36 Jeremiah Reno
37 Tristan Lujan
38 Dominic Mendez
39 Eli Griffin
40 Max Gallagher
41 Kyle Montaperto
42 Richie Figueroa
43 Justin Cardani
44 Sean Spidle
45 Jake Ice
46 Tucker Owens
47 Nick Babin
48 Yusief Lillie
49 Joey Fischer
50 Chad Bellis
51 Davian Guanajuato
52 Benjamin Aranda
53 Drew Heethuis
54 Tyler Klinsky
55 Colton Camacho
56 Richard Castro-Sandoval
57 Tommy Capul
58 Damion Ryan
59 Austin Kegley
60 Blaine Frazier
61 Dylan Acevedo-Switzer
62 Desmond Pleasant
63 Daniel Graham
64 JB Dragovich
65 Trenton Dominguez
66 Kevin Lopez
67 Robbie Sagaris
68 Logan Agin
69 Massey Odiotti
70 Malik Hardy
71 Dayton DelViscio
72 Carson Wagner
73 Eric Howe
74 Owen Bell
75 Enis Ljikovic
76 Max Elton
77 Bronson Garber
78 Caleb Edwards
79 Tony Burke
80 Ryan Meek
81 Adan Benavidez
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If we ignore matches against backups, redshirts, and wrestlers from other divisions, the ratings change as follows:

Net Rank Wrestler
1 Eric Barnett
2 Matt Ramos
3 Jore Volk
4 Nico Provo
5 Noah Surtin
6 Drake Ayala
7 Tanner Jordan
8 Caleb Smith
9 Luke Stanich
10 Cooper Flynn
11 Troy Spratley
12 Braeden Davis
13 Michael DeAugustino
14 Brett Ungar
15 Brandon Kaylor
16 Jett Strickenberger
17 Kysen Terukina
18 Ethan Berginc
19 Anthony Noto
20 Jack Maida
21 Blake West
22 Drew West
23 Dean Peterson
24 Stevo Poulin
25 Anthony Molton
26 Patrick McKee
27 Diego Sotelo
28 Tyler Klinsky
29 Brendan McCrone
30 Brayden Palmer
31 Dylan Acevedo-Switzer
32 Jakob Camacho
33 Eli Griffin
34 Spencer Moore
35 Conrad Hendriksen
36 Jeremiah Reno
37 Joey Fischer
38 Drew Heethuis
39 Tristan Lujan
40 Jared Brunner
41 Richie Figueroa
42 Jake Ice
43 Trever Anderson
44 Carlos Negrete
45 Max Gallagher
46 Colton Camacho
47 Dominic Mendez
48 Tucker Owens
49 Chad Bellis
50 Nick Babin
51 Benjamin Aranda
52 Kyle Montaperto
53 Justin Cardani
54 Damion Ryan
55 Sean Spidle
56 Kevin Lopez
57 Richard Castro-Sandoval
58 Dayton DelViscio
59 Massey Odiotti
60 Trenton Dominguez
61 Yusief Lillie
62 Owen Bell
63 Carson Wagner
64 Davian Guanajuato
65 Desmond Pleasant
66 JB Dragovich
67 Max Elton
68 Tommy Capul
69 Robbie Sagaris
70 Blaine Frazier
71 Eric Howe
72 Logan Agin
73 Malik Hardy
74 Enis Ljikovic
75 Ryan Meek
76 Caleb Edwards
77 Austin Kegley
78 Tony Burke
79 Daniel Graham
80 Bronson Garber
81 Adan Benavidez
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5 hours ago, 1032004 said:

You did drop him by a spot 🙂

In my mind - most certainly 🙂 . But for clarity sake, the two lists above were from before the dual and the difference between them was not a different point in time - but whether or not matches against non-D1 starters would be considered into the calculation 

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6 hours ago, 1032004 said:

Should we count last night as a loss for Davis for ranking purposes?

Wasn't this kind've like an all star match.  We all saw it, we know it happened, we know he got taken down and lost but ... we are going to pretend it didn't 'officially' happen.  😉

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1 minute ago, ionel said:

Wasn't this kind've like an all star match.  We all saw it, we know it happened, we know he got taken down and lost but ... we are going to pretend it didn't 'officially' happen.  😉

Since you mention it, I counted the All-Star match in my stats. 

 

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5 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Is Trombley now the starter for NC State?  He’s wrestled the first 2 of their ACC duals against Pitt and UNC

Same question I had.  Camacho has been hot and cold - perhaps due to injury?  The one he missed last year for perhaps?

Since I put together all these things by hand, Bucknell has just changed their starter from Owen Bell to Kade Davidheiser.  Back to work for me I guess.  I'm focusing my efforts this year on 125

Plus Jared Brunner to Michael Joyce for Brown

Edited by flyingcement
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Couple of notes.  I completed a few data integrity exercises to make sure formulas were consistent throughout, etc.

I replaced Brunner with Brown and Bell with Davidheiser.  I have not yet replaced Camacho with Trombley, although I can see they have done that on WrestleStat, because I have not yet heard confirmation of anything wrong with Camacho (which is what I think it would take for that change to take place).  I'll keep an eye on that situation.

Otherwise I decided against giving Braeden Davis the loss for the sake of stats for a couple reasons.  First is that I'm sure there are other matches which were similarly questionable that I just didn't see or care enough to reverse.  Another point is that if these calls are to be expected for favorites like PSU, then we can't hide behind that.  We should show that in the stats.

 

FC Rank Wrestler School InterMat FloSports WIN Wrestlestat Net Media Rank
1 Eric Barnett Wisconsin 2 6 8 2 3
2 Jore Volk Wyoming 8 8 7 10 8
3 Tanner Jordan South Dakota State 17 20 16 26 21
4 Nico Provo Stanford 18 19 15 21 18
5 Noah Surtin Missouri 7 3 5 6 4
6 Troy Spratley Oklahoma State 20 11 14 23 17
7 Matt Ramos Purdue 1 1 1 1 1
8 Cooper Flynn Virginia Tech 6 7 4 14 7
9 Drake Ayala Iowa 5 4 3 5 2
10 Caleb Smith Nebraska 15 9 12 18 12
11 Michael DeAugustino Northwestern 12 15 10 9 9
12 Braeden Davis Penn State 3 2 9 7 4
13 Brett Ungar Cornell 16 18 17 22 18
14 Luke Stanich Lehigh 4 5 51 4 16
15 Dean Peterson Rutgers 13 16 20 11 15
16 Jack Maida American 28 31 51 25 27
17 Anthony Noto Lock Haven 8 13 2 3 6
18 Stevo Poulin Northern Colorado 17 12 6 12 10
19 Anthony Molton Campbell 26 30 51 19 25
20 Patrick McKee Minnesota 14 17 11 8 11
21 Blake West Northern Illinois 32 57 51 38 34
22 Ethan Berginc Army 31 33 51 27 29
23 Jett Strickenberger West Virginia 57 57 51 28 37
24 Brandon Kaylor Oregon State 19 10 13 17 14
25 Brendan McCrone Ohio State 24 21 51 24 24
26 Brayden Palmer Chattanooga 23 29 51 15 23
27 Drew West Gardner-Webb 57 57 51 39 41
28 Kysen Terukina Iowa State 25 23 51 33 26
29 Jakob Camacho North Carolina State 22 22 18 16 20
30 Spencer Moore North Carolina 29 26 51 36 29
31 Dominic Mendez Cal Poly 30 57 51 41 36
32 Diego Sotelo Harvard 21 25 51 20 22
33 Trever Anderson Northern Iowa 57 28 51 32 31
34 Eli Griffin California Baptist 27 27 51 30 27
35 Carlos Negrete North Dakota State 57 57 51 46 46
36 Kade Davidheiser Bucknell 57 57 51 74 77
37 Conrad Hendriksen Oklahoma 33 57 51 37 34
38 Tristan Lujan Michigan State 57 57 51 40 42
39 Michael Joyce Brown 57 57 51 52 52
40 Jeremiah Reno Little Rock 57 57 51 31 38
41 Max Gallagher Pennsylvania 57 32 51 29 32
42 Sean Spidle Central Michigan 57 57 51 48 48
43 Jake Ice Sacred Heart 57 57 51 68 68
44 Justin Cardani Illinois 57 57 51 54 54
45 Kyle Montaperto Virginia 57 57 51 49 49
46 Richie Figueroa Arizona State 11 14 19 14 13
47 Tucker Owens Air Force 57 57 51 45 45
48 Joey Fischer Clarion 57 57 51 50 50
49 Yusief Lillie Utah Valley 57 57 51 66 66
50 Nick Babin Columbia 57 57 51 34 39
51 Davian Guanajuato Southern Illinois Edwardsville 57 57 51 57 57
52 Benjamin Aranda Cleveland State 57 57 51 59 59
53 Tyler Klinsky Rider 57 57 51 35 40
54 Drew Heethuis Princeton 57 57 51 43 43
55 Chad Bellis Appalachian State 57 57 51 44 44
56 Richard Castro-Sandoval Cal State Bakersfield 57 57 51 53 53
57 Damion Ryan Bellarmine 57 57 51 69 69
58 Tommy Capul Maryland 57 57 51 76 76
59 Colton Camacho Pittsburgh 57 24 51 42 33
60 Blaine Frazier Indiana 57 57 51 47 47
61 JB Dragovich George Mason 57 57 51 67 67
62 Desmond Pleasant Drexel 57 57 51 51 51
63 Logan Agin Duke 57 57 51 56 56
64 Dylan Acevedo-Switzer Hofstra 57 57 51 63 63
65 Robbie Sagaris Long Island 57 57 51 62 62
66 Trenton Dominguez Presbyterian 57 57 51 75 75
67 Massey Odiotti Northwestern 57 57 51 71 71
68 Kevin Lopez Morgan State 57 57 51 78 78
69 Malik Hardy Citadel 57 57 51 58 58
70 Dayton DelViscio Navy 57 57 51 64 64
71 Eric Howe Franklin & Marshall 57 57 51 65 65
72 Carson Wagner Binghamton 57 57 51 55 55
73 Max Elton Buffalo 57 57 51 60 60
74 Enis Ljikovic Davidson 57 57 51 79 79
75 Caleb Edwards Edinboro 57 57 51 73 73
76 Bronson Garber Bloomsburg 57 57 51 61 61
77 Tony Burke VMI 57 57 51 77 78
78 Ryan Meek Ohio 57 57 51 72 72
79 Adan Benavidez Kent State 57 57 51 70 70
80 Austin Kegley Lindenwood 57 57 51 80 80
81 Daniel Graham Queens 57 57 51 81 81
Edited by flyingcement
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