College Football Playoff

[nhs67]

Greetings All,

After yesterday, what are everyone's thoughts as to how it should play out?

Here are mine:

If Georgia, Michigan, TCU, and USC win their conference championships, they should be the 1-4 in that order.

If one of them loses this is what I think:

- Georgia, they should still get in as the 2 or 3 and Michigan slide up to the 1.  No outside team(s) would jump over a 1 loss Georgia.

- Michigan, they should drop to the 4, but not be jumped.  I don't care if a 2 loss Alabama is 'better' when they lost twice.  The Ohio State got clobbered at home in 'The Game' so no to them as well.

- TCU, I think a case can be made for TCU to drop out and either Alabama or the Ohio State jump them, but being a 1 loss team and having made their conference championship game makes it so I lean to them getting a mulligan for me maybe?

- USC, they undoubtedly drop out and no two loss non-SEC(Alabama) school is going to get in at this point.  The question becomes which one?  Alabama or the Ohio State?  The B1G in me says tOSU, but the logical mindset in me thinks that if they say 'Who is better?' that they will select Alabama - justifiably so.

Of the four current favorites to make it, I believe that Georgia us the only lock.  Even if they get blown out, I think they get in.  If Michigan or TCU lose competitive back and forth matches, then they might - more Michigan than TCU, though, as Michigan has the recency bias if the tOSU victory going for them.

Prediction?  I can't really make one - honestly.  I think Michigan is the biggest lock to win of the four.  TCU and USC have rematches. USC lose to Utah earlier this year and TCU beat Kansas State and it is hard to beat good teams twice.  That gives me a gut feeling that USC will win and TCU will not.  I think Georgia will win a slugfest, even if they don't win, like I said before, I think they are in.

So my thinking is this: If TCU us the only of the four to lose, then the Ohio State gets in.  If they are comparing four 1 loss teams (Alabama abd tOSU as well as USC), then the lone 2 loss squad gets eliminated.  Then they say yes to USC as the 3, having won their conference championship.  They give tOSU the nod.  Their loss to Michigan was closer than the score indicated.  1-UGA, 2-UofM, 3-USC, 3-tOSU.

If USC is the lone loser of the favorites, it essentially comes down ti Alabama and the Ohio State, in which I think they will favor Alabama.  1-UGA, 2-UofM, 3-TCU, 4-Bama

If USC and TCU lose, which is possible, I think this is most likely: 1-UGA, 2-UofM, 3-Bama, 4-tOSU

I think it ends up being TCU as the lone loser.  1-UGA, 2-UofM, 3-USC, 3-tOSU.

EDIT: My apologies for the ramble.

Edited November 27, 2022 by nhs67

[Husker_Du]

why is USC in and tOSU not.

USC lost to a 9-3 Utah team. tOSU has 1 loss - to undefeated Michigan - in a game they lead at halftime.

[RYou]

Valid question.  Historically, the team with the loss earlier in season gets favored.  Why, forgetfulness ?

Alabama has 2 losses, #7 Tennessee and #11 LSU compared to tOSU's loss to #2 Michigan.  Clearly, tOSU should be the favored entry if UCS or TCU lose.  BUT, that will be 2 from the B1G.  Similarly, if they somehow allow Alabama in because of the Saban bias, that will let 2 from the SEC in.  Allowing 2 from the B1G should not be an issue, but the SEC bias will come into play.

If Georgia loses the SEC to LSU which not as unlikely as most think, they still get the entry over a 2 loss Alabama.

If Michigan somehow has a brain fart and loses to Purdue, I don't think decisionmakers will be nice to UM and keep them in giving the seat back to tOSU.

What will get real interesting is if both Georgia and Michigan both lose in the conference championship. Given the recap above it shouldn't matter, but I think OSU slides in ahead of UM.

If 3 of the top 4 lose, no doubt the Saban bias will get a 2 loss Alabama back into the playoff.

 

[nhs67]

3 hours ago, Husker_Du said:

why is USC in and tOSU not.

USC lost to a 9-3 Utah team. tOSU has 1 loss - to undefeated Michigan - in a game they lead at halftime.

They weight conference championships heavily.

I absolutely believe that tOSU should be #4 right now, and not #5.  As @RYousaid, their loss was much later in the season, so USC's earlier loss was 'forgiven' more or less.  If they defeat Utah this next week then it will have beeb avenged, as well.

[mspart]

I'm a Bama fan through and through.  Grew up there and they have always been my team.  But they should not go ahead of anyone there currently.   Those two losses were completely avoidable if Bama played like Bama.   They did not.   Even in their win over Auburn, defense did not look that great.   Offense looked better but not stellar.   Doesn't take much to beat Auburn this year.  Plus the refs gave them a break and that was one touchdown at the end of the first half.   I was hopeful, but not anymore.   Bama is out, and deservedly so.   But they won the Iron Bowl. 

mspart

 

 

[Ban Basketball]

Even though this is an improvement in recent years, I still think that the FCS is the only one that can claim a true national champion.

Unfortunately, no birth for UNI this year.

[RYou]

On 11/28/2022 at 6:43 PM, Ban Basketball said:

Even though this is an improvement in recent years, I still think that the FCS is the only one that can claim a true national champion.

Unfortunately, no birth for UNI this year.

That will change soon as teh TV revenue for 6, 8, or 12 if far to great and the NCAA presidents want it.

The playoff committee made an interesting statement placing tOSU ahead of Alabama.

College Football Playoff Rankings, Nov. 29

1. Georgia (12-0) - if UIGA loses the conference they still get in the playoff.
2. Michigan (12-0) - not so for a 1 loss Michigan, betcha tOSU swoops in at #4 despite the blowout loss
3. TCU (12-0) - a loss lets tOSU in
4. USC (11-1) - same for a USC loss
5. Ohio State (11-1) - it placed an order at the diner, just for the waitress to deliver breakfast
6. Alabama (10-2) - will need both TCU and USC to lose
7. Tennessee (10-2) - just wishin', the Saban bias has already placed them ahead of UT despite the loss.
8. Penn State (10-2) - "We are" headed to the Cotton Bowl
9. Clemson (10-2) - to the Orange and likely against UT (not tOSU as some think).  They like having 2 southern schools
10. Kansas State (9-3) - to the Sugar

[Crotalus]

2 hours ago, RYou said:

Michigan (12-0) - not so for a 1 loss Michigan, betcha tOSU swoops in at #4 despite the blowout loss

I hope not, but wouldn't be surprised. Shouldn't punish the team for making it to the conference championship and having to play an extra game (well, they should drop a few spots if they lose, but should not get jumped by a team they just walloped). That happened to Mizzou in 2008. They beat Kansas to win the Big 12 North and then lost to OU in the conference championship. Kansas jumped ahead of Mizzou in the rankings despite losing to them and got the Orange Bowl invite. That was back in the BCS days, though, so hopefully the rankings play out the way they should (not that I actually care about any Big 10 football team).

[nhs67]

6 hours ago, Crotalus said:

I hope not, but wouldn't be surprised. Shouldn't punish the team for making it to the conference championship and having to play an extra game (well, they should drop a few spots if they lose, but should not get jumped by a team they just walloped). That happened to Mizzou in 2008. They beat Kansas to win the Big 12 North and then lost to OU in the conference championship. Kansas jumped ahead of Mizzou in the rankings despite losing to them and got the Orange Bowl invite. That was back in the BCS days, though, so hopefully the rankings play out the way they should (not that I actually care about any Big 10 football team).

The Mizzou scenario was different.  Mizzou was not 12-0 heading in to the conference championship.

[RYou]

Well, Utah intercepted USC's playoff position. Unless the playoff goes woke and determines tOSU in the playoff unbalances equity, they're in, or should I say, should be in.

Here's an interesting scenario should TCU get upset.

Assuming Michigan beats Purdue, tOSU jumps to #3........setting up a Michigan v Ohio State rematch.

Penn State would have a pretty good argument, it should be in at #4.  Its losses were to #2 Michigan and #3 Ohio State, compared to Alabama losing to  #7 Tennessee and #11 LSU.

No way no how does the committee advance 3 B1Gs into the playoff.

Alabama reemerges.

 

 

Edited December 3, 2022 by RYou

[nhs67]

[nhs67]

I think it ends up being:

1 - Georgia

2 - Michigan

3 - the Ohio State

4 - TCU

*This is pending the results of the SEC and B1G championship games.

[nhs67]

I am thinking TCU and tOSU swap.  TCU lost in OT and holds a win over the team they lost to as well.  Add in it was an OT loss and I don't see them being penalized too greatly.

[RYou]

1 Georgia 13-0 1 2 Michigan 13-0 2 3 TCU 12-1 3 4 Ohio State 11-1 5 I think they intentionally kept TCU at #3 hoping to avoid an all B1G final, but if that happens, its going to be a whale of game. given the rivalry.