Wrestleknownothing Posted November 26, 2022 Share Posted November 26, 2022 Which teams have made the biggest moves in the first few weeks of the season? Below is the difference between the expected AA's per team based on Intermat's pre-season rankings and the current expectation based on their 11/22 rankings. Iowa State, Michigan and Va Tech are making the biggest moves on the plus side. Meanwhile, Nebraska, Penn, and Ohio State are moving in the wrong direction early in the season. Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ban Basketball Posted November 26, 2022 Share Posted November 26, 2022 Given the fact that the rasslin season doesn't really begin until January, my best advice would be to tune in later. Owner of over two decades of the most dangerous words on the internet! In fact, during the short life of this forum, me's culture has been cancelled three times on this very site! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Husker_Du Posted November 26, 2022 Share Posted November 26, 2022 if you don't want to engage in wrestling talk until January, then shut up. 1 6 TBD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ban Basketball Posted November 26, 2022 Share Posted November 26, 2022 20 minutes ago, Husker_Du said: if you don't want to engage in wrestling talk until January, then shut up. Now THERE'S a deep thought, eh, friends?! Owner of over two decades of the most dangerous words on the internet! In fact, during the short life of this forum, me's culture has been cancelled three times on this very site! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Husker_Du Posted November 26, 2022 Share Posted November 26, 2022 imagine being so enlightened that you come on a wrestling message board and suggest you not worry about talking wrestling for a few months. genius. 3 TBD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreatWhiteNorth Posted November 26, 2022 Share Posted November 26, 2022 2 hours ago, Husker_Du said: if you don't want to engage in wrestling talk until January, then shut up. Easy there, king brain. He's right, no "big moves" are being made until after the holidays. If you are talking gambling? I think you made a specific forum for that. Good place to go for such talk. Golden rule always applies - "Do unto others as you would have them do unto you" It is the holiday season, let's all try to be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Husker_Du Posted November 26, 2022 Share Posted November 26, 2022 perhaps we should just shut down the boards until january. here i was under the impression we wanted to talk wrestling. apparently knownothing was too. silly us. TBD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theo Brixton Posted November 26, 2022 Share Posted November 26, 2022 LOL, what's the over/under on how long it will be before Ban starts posting exclusively with NJD? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crablegs Posted November 26, 2022 Share Posted November 26, 2022 10 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said: Which teams have made the biggest moves in the first few weeks of the season? Below is the difference between the expected AA's per team based on Intermat's pre-season rankings and the current expectation based on their 11/22 rankings. Iowa State, Michigan and Va Tech are making the biggest moves on the plus side. Meanwhile, Nebraska, Penn, and Ohio State are moving in the wrong direction early in the season. How do you get this number? What is 0.1 expected AA? Just curious your method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrestleknownothing Posted November 26, 2022 Author Share Posted November 26, 2022 1 hour ago, Crablegs said: How do you get this number? What is 0.1 expected AA? Just curious your method. Good question. I calculated the probability any one seed ends as an AA based on results from 2010 - 2022. This is what that looks like: If you just count the wrestlers ranked 8 or higher, it ignores the fact, for example, that of the last 120 wrestlers seeded 8, only 60 finished in the top 8. Even a 1 seed is not a guarantee to finish as an AA, historically. So, I sum the probabilities associated with each team's current rankings (thereby equating ranking to seed). In that way you get expected AA. So a change of 0.1 can be thought of as a team increasing the probability that one of their wrestlers will AA by 10%. This is roughly the same as having a wrestler move from a 5 seed to a 4 seed. Thanks for asking @Crablegs, sometimes I rush to the final thought without posting all the ones that came before. 4 Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crablegs Posted November 26, 2022 Share Posted November 26, 2022 26 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said: Good question. I calculated the probability any one seed ends as an AA based on results from 2010 - 2022. This is what that looks like: If you just count the wrestlers ranked 8 or higher, it ignores the fact, for example, that of the last 120 wrestlers seeded 8, only 60 finished in the top 8. Even a 1 seed is not a guarantee to finish as an AA, historically. So, I sum the probabilities associated with each team's current rankings (thereby equating ranking to seed). In that way you get expected AA. So a change of 0.1 can be thought of as a team increasing the probability that one of their wrestlers will AA by 10%. This is roughly the same as having a wrestler move from a 5 seed to a 4 seed. Thanks for asking @Crablegs, sometimes I rush to the final thought without posting all the ones that came before. Awesome stuff! Thanks for explaining. Very interesting and I think a good way of looking at things. Can you also show the total expected AA in addition to the change? I’m an ISU fan for example and am curious if that change in one more AA moves them from 3 to 4 or 4 to 5 in your calculations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Idaho Posted November 26, 2022 Share Posted November 26, 2022 Interesting…. Being an OSUw fan I would have thought we would have a positive number with Belton and Olguin improving their ranking looking forward to the first shake up in Vegas! Sponsored by INTERMAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrestleknownothing Posted November 26, 2022 Author Share Posted November 26, 2022 23 minutes ago, Crablegs said: Awesome stuff! Thanks for explaining. Very interesting and I think a good way of looking at things. Can you also show the total expected AA in addition to the change? I’m an ISU fan for example and am curious if that change in one more AA moves them from 3 to 4 or 4 to 5 in your calculations. 1 Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrestleknownothing Posted November 26, 2022 Author Share Posted November 26, 2022 ISU by the numbers @Crablegs two notes: I do not have the 11/15 intermat rankings and I updated the probabilities in early November so you see a slight change in 197 that has nothing to do with a rank change. Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreatWhiteNorth Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 17 hours ago, Husker_Du said: perhaps we should just shut down the boards until january. here i was under the impression we wanted to talk wrestling. apparently knownothing was too. silly us. Some of us are fans, others of us are super fans. Analyzing every inch of what is happening right now is legit. Waiting for things to start to shake themselves out before getting too fired up is also legit. Thankfully, we don't all have to look at everything the same way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrestleknownothing Posted November 27, 2022 Author Share Posted November 27, 2022 On 11/26/2022 at 8:45 AM, Idaho said: Interesting…. Being an OSUw fan I would have thought we would have a positive number with Belton and Olguin improving their ranking looking forward to the first shake up in Vegas! OSUw breakdown: 1 Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ionel Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Wrestleknownothing said: OSUw breakdown: but in two weeks ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Idaho Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 45 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said: OSUw breakdown: Interesting... Thanks for the work on this! Sponsored by INTERMAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BerniePragle Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 Amazing. WKN not only gives us a peek behind the curtain, he also gives us acting lessons while he's at it. As always, Thanks for the effort, the insight, and the explanation. It will be interesting to see how things shake out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ban Basketball Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 On 11/26/2022 at 2:56 AM, GreatWhiteNorth said: Easy there, king brain. He's right, no "big moves" are being made until after the holidays. Exactly. A lot of people don't really start rasslin much until January, getting their weight under control and "beginning" the season with the dual season. Owner of over two decades of the most dangerous words on the internet! In fact, during the short life of this forum, me's culture has been cancelled three times on this very site! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nhs67 Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 On 11/26/2022 at 4:20 AM, Husker_Du said: here i was under the impression we wanted to talk wrestling. Fake news, obvi. "I know actually nothing. It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nhs67 Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 3 hours ago, ionel said: but in two weeks ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ You mean five, correct? We are just in dev mode because wrestling hasn't actually started yet. 1 "I know actually nothing. It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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