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Who is making the biggest moves?


Wrestleknownothing

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Which teams have made the biggest moves in the first few weeks of the season?

Below is the difference between the expected AA's per team based on Intermat's pre-season rankings and the current expectation based on their 11/22 rankings.

Iowa State, Michigan and Va Tech are making the biggest moves on the plus side. Meanwhile, Nebraska, Penn, and Ohio State are moving in the wrong direction early in the season.

image.thumb.png.49ccd8746ae286636d70eaf5f480af54.png

Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge

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20 minutes ago, Husker_Du said:

if you don't want to engage in wrestling talk until January, then shut up.

Now THERE'S a deep thought, eh, friends?!

Owner of over two decades of the most dangerous words on the internet!  In fact, during the short life of this forum, me's culture has been cancelled three times on this very site!

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2 hours ago, Husker_Du said:

if you don't want to engage in wrestling talk until January, then shut up.

Easy there, king brain. He's right, no "big moves" are being made until after the holidays.

If you are talking gambling? I think you made a specific forum for that. Good place to go for such talk.

Golden rule always applies - "Do unto others as you would have them do unto you"

It is the holiday season, let's all try to be nice.

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10 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Which teams have made the biggest moves in the first few weeks of the season?

Below is the difference between the expected AA's per team based on Intermat's pre-season rankings and the current expectation based on their 11/22 rankings.

Iowa State, Michigan and Va Tech are making the biggest moves on the plus side. Meanwhile, Nebraska, Penn, and Ohio State are moving in the wrong direction early in the season.

image.thumb.png.49ccd8746ae286636d70eaf5f480af54.png

How do you get this number?  What is 0.1 expected AA? Just curious your method.  

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1 hour ago, Crablegs said:

How do you get this number?  What is 0.1 expected AA? Just curious your method.  

Good question. I calculated the probability any one seed ends as an AA based on results from 2010 - 2022. This is what that looks like:

 

image.thumb.png.9eaffba9b81ae6a9feb119a2e6f5d224.png

If you just count the wrestlers ranked 8 or higher, it ignores the fact, for example, that of the last 120 wrestlers seeded 8, only 60 finished in the top 8. Even a 1 seed is not a guarantee to finish as an AA, historically.

So, I sum the probabilities associated with each team's current rankings (thereby equating ranking to seed). In that way you get expected AA. So a change of 0.1 can be thought of as a team increasing the probability that one of their wrestlers will AA by 10%. This is roughly the same as having a wrestler move from a 5 seed to a 4 seed.

Thanks for asking @Crablegs, sometimes I rush to the final thought without posting all the ones that came before.

 

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Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge

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26 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Good question. I calculated the probability any one seed ends as an AA based on results from 2010 - 2022. This is what that looks like:

 

image.thumb.png.9eaffba9b81ae6a9feb119a2e6f5d224.png

If you just count the wrestlers ranked 8 or higher, it ignores the fact, for example, that of the last 120 wrestlers seeded 8, only 60 finished in the top 8. Even a 1 seed is not a guarantee to finish as an AA, historically.

So, I sum the probabilities associated with each team's current rankings (thereby equating ranking to seed). In that way you get expected AA. So a change of 0.1 can be thought of as a team increasing the probability that one of their wrestlers will AA by 10%. This is roughly the same as having a wrestler move from a 5 seed to a 4 seed.

Thanks for asking @Crablegs, sometimes I rush to the final thought without posting all the ones that came before.

 

Awesome stuff!  Thanks for explaining.  
 

Very interesting and I think a good way of looking at things. Can you also show the total expected AA in addition to the change?  I’m an ISU fan for example and am curious if that change in one more AA moves them from 3 to 4 or 4 to 5 in your calculations.

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23 minutes ago, Crablegs said:

Awesome stuff!  Thanks for explaining.  
 

Very interesting and I think a good way of looking at things. Can you also show the total expected AA in addition to the change?  I’m an ISU fan for example and am curious if that change in one more AA moves them from 3 to 4 or 4 to 5 in your calculations.

image.thumb.png.a2328d1d27ac29940facf207dec6998e.png

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Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge

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17 hours ago, Husker_Du said:

perhaps we should just shut down the boards until january.

here i was under the impression we wanted to talk wrestling.

apparently knownothing was too. silly us. 🤷‍♂️

Some of us are fans, others of us are super fans.

Analyzing every inch of what is happening right now is legit. Waiting for things to start to shake themselves out before getting too fired up is also legit.

Thankfully, we don't all have to look at everything the same way.

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On 11/26/2022 at 2:56 AM, GreatWhiteNorth said:

Easy there, king brain. He's right, no "big moves" are being made until after the holidays.

 

Exactly.  A lot of people don't really start rasslin much until January, getting their weight under control and "beginning" the season with the dual season.

Owner of over two decades of the most dangerous words on the internet!  In fact, during the short life of this forum, me's culture has been cancelled three times on this very site!

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