How Big is the Big Board?

[Wrestleknownothing]

Flo has published, and maintain an archive online of, their Big Board since 2016. Their list contains the Top 100 PFP wrestlers for each HS graduating class. I was also able to piece together 66 of their top 100 for 2015 from their 2015 class ranking article. (The highest ranks I am missing in 2015 are 12 and 18).

I did this because a lot of team debates start with debates about who had the best recruits coming in. The general form of the argument is "our coaches are better because they did more with less", or some variant. And those arguments are generally supported by cherry-picking from PFP rankings. Of course, that assumes that the PFP rankings are accurate.

One possible explanation for the failure of a ranked wrestler to perform in college is that they were over-ranked (let's call that Willie's fault). Another is that they never progressed (coach's fault, the bum). And if a guy who never made the list does well it could be the fault of the list makers for over looking him. Or it could be a credit to great coaching once he hit the college room. Dealer's choice.

So, I thought I would look at how well these Big Boards are connected to the actual results as a first step.

But first some caveats. I had to pull data from a lot of different sources. And the data is a mess from every source. I spent time cleaning, but I am 100% certain that what I have still contains errors. Some are easier to find than others. For example, who knew that an apostrophe in a name had a direction? Well it does, and it matters when merging data. If you see something, say something. I will fix any errors as you, my collective editors, find them.

Big Board Overall Grade

Every year there are 80 All-Americans. Every year there are 100 (ish) wrestlers on the Big Board. And every year there are 4 (ish) classes competing. It would make sense that the vast majority of All-Americans come from these lists, especially higher up on these lists. Putting it all together you would expect that a given class would have 80 total All-Americans across their four (ish) years competing (80 slots multiplied by 4years divided by four classes). 

For the four HS graduating classes that have effectively used up their eligibility the hit rate is around 75% (60 of 80). It goes to show that development is not complete in HS. Guys can come "out of nowhere" to AA.

The low number for 2015 is at least partly explained by the missing 34 wrestlers from my list.

Cream Rises?

It is fair to assume that these lists are more accurate at the top than the bottom. I am not sure how to quantify what I would expect, but certainly the pattern makes sense. The Top 10 do better than the next ten, and so forth down the list (mostly - keep reading, you can do it).

The key to happiness is to fill your room with Top 20 guys.

I know. Shocking insight.

Again, the 2015 data is skewed to the top of the list because the missing data is farther down the list.

The Outliers

If you look closely at the table above you will notice that the 8th decile wins a disproportionately large number of the AA spots given their final Big Board rating (71 - 80).

The distribution by final Big Board rating looks like this:

 

What is going on with those #74 and #78 guys?

This is the Money Ball stuff.

Coaches, target #74 and #78. This is a foolproof path to a title. (Or maybe just a bit of small data weirdness? Nah, the money ball thing. Definitely the money ball thing.)

For completeness:

 

Trivia (and a tease)

If you've come this far, maybe you're willing to come a little further. You remember the name of the town...

• What wrestler in the 2015, 2016, 2017, or 2018 HS class won a title with the lowest final Big Board ranking (#97)?

Bonus trivia: The next lowest ranked from one of those classes was #74. Name that...haha, just testing your reading comprehension.

 

 

Edited November 2, 2023 by Wrestleknownothing

[Gus]

28 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Flo has published, and maintain an archive online of, their Big Board since 2016. Their list contains the Top 100 PFP wrestlers for each HS graduating class. I was also able to piece together 66 of their top 100 for 2015 from their 2015 class ranking article. (The highest ranks I am missing in 2015 are 12 and 18).

I did this because a lot of team debates start with debates about who had the best recruits coming in. The general form of the argument is "our coaches are better because they did more with less", or some variant. And those arguments are generally supported by cherry-picking from PFP rankings. Of course, that assumes that the PFP rankings are accurate.

One possible explanation for the failure of a ranked wrestler to perform in college is that they were over-ranked (let's call that Willie's fault). Another is that they never progressed (coach's fault, the bum). And if a guy who never made the list does well it could be the fault of the list makers for over looking him. Or it could be a credit to great coaching once he hit the college room. Dealer's choice.

So, I thought I would look at how well these Big Boards are connected to the actual results as a first step.

But first some caveats. I had to pull data from a lot of different sources. And the data is a mess from every source. I spent time cleaning, but I am 100% certain that what I have still contains errors. Some are easier to find than others. For example, who knew that an apostrophe in a name had a direction? Well it does, and it matters when merging data. If you see something, say something. I will fix any errors as you, my collective editors, find them.

Big Board Overall Grade

Every year there are 80 All-Americans. Every year there are 100 (ish) wrestlers on the Big Board. And every year there are 4 (ish) classes competing. It would make sense that the vast majority of All-Americans come from these lists, especially higher up on these lists. Putting it all together you would expect that a given class would have 80 total All-Americans across their four (ish) years competing (80 slots multiplied by 4years divided by four classes). 

For the four HS graduating classes that have effectively used up their eligibility the hit rate is around 75% (60 of 80). It goes to show that development is not complete in HS. Guys can come "out of nowhere" to AA.

The low number for 2015 is at least partly explained by the missing 34 wrestlers from my list.

Cream Rises?

It is fair to assume that these lists are more accurate at the top than the bottom. I am not sure how to quantify what I would expect, but certainly the pattern makes sense. The Top 10 do better than the next ten, and so forth down the list (mostly - keep reading, you can do it).

The key to happiness is to fill your room with Top 20 guys.

I know. Shocking insight.

Again, the 2015 data is skewed to the top of the list because the missing data is farther down the list.

The Outliers

If you look closely at the table above you will notice that the 8th decile wins a disproportionately large number of the AA spots given their final Big Board rating (71 - 80).

The distribution by final Big Board rating looks like this:

 

What is going on with those #74 and #78 guys?

This is the Money Ball stuff.

Coaches, target #74 and #78. This is a foolproof path to a title. (Or maybe just a bit of small data weirdness? Nah, the money ball thing. Definitely the money ball thing.)

For completeness:

 

Trivia (and a tease)

If you've come this far, maybe you're willing to come a little further. You remember the name of the town...

• What wrestler in the 2015, 2016, 2017, or 2018 HS class won a title with the lowest final Big Board ranking (#97)?

Bonus trivia: The next lowest ranked from one of those classes was #74. Name that...haha, just testing your reading comprehension.

 

 

Is the answer Nino? Bonus would be Max Dean

[Wrestleknownothing]

Just found a fun one. Jaydin Eierman nowhere to be found in the 2015 Big Board? Well how about Jaydin Clayton? So add a few more to 2015.

[Gantry]

I'll go Ryan Deakin on the lowest rated big board person. 

[Wrestleknownothing]

2 minutes ago, Gus said:

Is the answer Nino? Bonus would be Max Dean

Nino is like Cassar. Neither even made the top 100 list.

Or at least I do not think Cassar made the 2014 list. Hard to know for sure. 2010 - 2014 there were only weight class rankings on Flo. No PFP. And only for their top 25 recruiting classes. And often there were more than one #1 at a weight. And never all ten weights. But the legend is that he was not on anyone's list.

[Wrestleknownothing]

Just now, Gantry said:

I'll go Ryan Deakin on the lowest rated big board person. 

Winner winner, chicken dinner.

If you ever make it to the home of Tony Ramos, Abe Assad, Austin Gomez, Jerod Cortez, and at one time, me, I will gladly get you chicken fingers at The Village Tavern. Trust me. You want this.

[Gus]

1 minute ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Winner winner, chicken dinner.

If you ever make it to the home of Tony Ramos, Abe Assad, Austin Gomez, Jerod Cortez, and at one time, me, I will gladly get you chicken fingers at The Village Tavern. Trust me. You want this.

The 2016 class had some hammers ranked low. Tariq Willson 66, Max Dean 74, Seabass 78, Deakin 97

[Gus]

6 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Nino is like Cassar. Neither even made the top 100 list.

Or at least I do not think Cassar made the 2014 list. Hard to know for sure. 2010 - 2014 there were only weight class rankings on Flo. No PFP. And only for their top 25 recruiting classes. And often there were more than one #1 at a weight. And never all ten weights. But the legend is that he was not on anyone's list.

Flow actually has Nino @ #30 on there 2017 big board. I thought he was lower since he never won a PA state title but he performed very well nationally.

[Husker_Du]

Nino was #30 in 2017.

i archived all of them dating back to 2013, prior to which i used a different format (Top 12 by projected weight).

[Gantry]

3 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Winner winner, chicken dinner.

If you ever make it to the home of Tony Ramos, Abe Assad, Austin Gomez, Jerod Cortez, and at one time, me, I will gladly get you chicken fingers at The Village Tavern. Trust me. You want this.

I used to drive down to Carol Stream to play Street Fighter 2 in the mid 90s, the name of the arcade is escaping me though.  I don't think it was Aladdin's Castle, that was Lombard IIRC.  Just off North Avenue, maybe North and Gary?  There was a White Castle nearby...

[Wrestleknownothing]

37 minutes ago, Husker_Du said:

Nino was #30 in 2017.

Oops. I had a filter on. Yes, I see him as 30.

For clarity, he is included in the above summary data.

[Wrestleknownothing]

2 minutes ago, Gantry said:

I used to drive down to Carol Stream to play Street Fighter 2 in the mid 90s, the name of the arcade is escaping me though.  I don't think it was Aladdin's Castle, that was Lombard IIRC.  Just off North Avenue, maybe North and Gary?  There was a White Castle nearby...

That was where the bowling alley used to be. A gas station/mini-truck stop now.

But thank God, the White Castle is still there.

[Ohio Elite]

4 minutes ago, Gantry said:

I used to drive down to Carol Stream to play Street Fighter 2 in the mid 90s, the name of the arcade is escaping me though.  I don't think it was Aladdin's Castle, that was Lombard IIRC.  Just off North Avenue, maybe North and Gary?  There was a White Castle nearby...

Ryu was always my guy.

[Gantry]

3 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

That was where the bowling alley used to be. A gas station/mini-truck stop now.

But thank God, the White Castle is still there.

Internet says it was called Galaxy World, that was a quality place with good SF2 players.  Almost always hit up The Castle when I went, RIP

[nhs67]

When did Brain officially STOP doing Flo's big board?

I am curious how much worse it is going to be the further away from Brain-days it gets.

[MPhillips]

14 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

I am curious how much worse it is going to be the further away from Brain-days it gets.

Not too much. He spends most of his time nowadays over at the, 'Non Wrestling Topics' portion of IF where his "Brain-days" appear damaged...

[Le duke]

18 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Winner winner, chicken dinner.

If you ever make it to the home of Tony Ramos, Abe Assad, Austin Gomez, Jerod Cortez, and at one time, me, I will gladly get you chicken fingers at The Village Tavern. Trust me. You want this.

Why don't you take yourself back across North Avenue, old man?

[Le duke]

18 hours ago, Gantry said:

Internet says it was called Galaxy World, that was a quality place with good SF2 players.  Almost always hit up The Castle when I went, RIP

Galaxy World. Wow. Haven't heard that name in a long, long time.

The Ace Hardware that used to be across the street had a bunch of great model railroad layouts that the 6 year old version of me loved.

[Wrestleknownothing]

ATTENTION - - ALL LADIES

Come and Bring Your Friends to a FREE "Fun Day" at GALA

Edited November 3, 2023 by Wrestleknownothing

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 hour ago, Le duke said:

Galaxy World. Wow. Haven't heard that name in a long, long time.

The Ace Hardware that used to be across the street had a bunch of great model railroad layouts that the 6 year old version of me loved.

If you knew your Carol Stream history as well as you say you do...

That was an E-G Home Center

 

[Gantry]

Good gravy, how many people on this forum were at Galaxy World? 

[Le duke]

2 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

If you knew your Carol Stream history as well as you say you do...

That was an E-G Home Center

 

I'm from the mean streets of Wheaton, my man. And, that place closed like 20+ years ago.

A couple of my wife's cousins went to GBN, though. 

[Wrestleknownothing]

9 minutes ago, Le duke said:

I'm from the mean streets of Wheaton, my man. And, that place closed like 20+ years ago.

A couple of my wife's cousins went to GBN, though. 

Mean streets? You mean the gold-lined streets of Wheaton? I think they had a gate to keep us Streamers out.

[Le duke]

Just now, Wrestleknownothing said:

Mean streets? You mean the gold-lined streets of Wheaton? I think they had a gate to keep us Streamers out.

Like I said: the mean streets of Wheaton. 

[MPhillips]

2 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

I think they had a gate to keep us Streakers out.