Way too early Hodge rankings

[Wrestej]

I doubt very seriously Dresser let’s Carr wrestle O’Toole more than twice this year outside of AA’s.  Regardless of how many times they do wrestle O’Toole will add to Carr’s loss column.  Barring an injury during match O’Toole wins.  Only way Carr wins is if he doesn’t let him touch him for 2 1/2 periods and some way gets a td at the end.  I don’t see that outcome though.  O’Toole is just better in every position.  

[Le duke]

I doubt very seriously Dresser let’s Carr wrestle O’Toole more than twice this year outside of AA’s.  Regardless of how many times they do wrestle O’Toole will add to Carr’s loss column.  Barring an injury during match O’Toole wins.  Only way Carr wins is if he doesn’t let him touch him for 2 1/2 periods and some way gets a td at the end.  I don’t see that outcome though.  O’Toole is just better in every position.  

On top, sure. Not better than Carr from neutral.


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[Wrestej]

21 minutes ago, Le duke said:

 

On top, sure. Not better than Carr from neutral.


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Absolutely he is better on his feet and on the mat, both top and bottom.  I have watched over 50 matches of his and I have never once seen him in a position on the mat where he looks nervous or somewhere he is not in complete control.  I truly don’t think he loses another match in college, which means he will finish with one loss.  Best thing is we get to watch while he’s doing it.  He is must see.  Very few come along like him.  

[Crablegs]

16 hours ago, 1032004 said:

Bonusing Carr may be a slight exaggeration but I don’t think it’s that bad of a take.  He was 25-0 with a ton of bonus as essentially a redshirt freshman.  

Would be cool to see him bump up to take on Starocci in a year or two (assuming Starocci doesn’t bump to 184 after Brooks graduates).

 

You are not “essentially a redshirt freshman” if you wrestled a full season, conference, and NCAAs.  Lol. That experience is invaluable.

Otoole’s bonus was 64% last year.  Carr had a higher bonus percentage in his championship season (65%).  

 

 

 

 

 

[1032004]

1 hour ago, Crablegs said:

You are not “essentially a redshirt freshman” if you wrestled a full season, conference, and NCAAs.  Lol. That experience is invaluable.

Otoole’s bonus was 64% last year.  Carr had a higher bonus percentage in his championship season (65%).  

 

 

 

 

 

I was more referring to his age.  And I said I’m not sure if he majors Carr.  I think he beats him though.

[Le duke]

I didn’t realize O’Toole’s bonus rate was that low.

People were talking about him as if he was the second coming of Cael. Perhaps pump the brakes on that, eh?


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[Wrestleknownothing]

37 minutes ago, Le duke said:

I didn’t realize O’Toole’s bonus rate was that low.

People were talking about him as if he was the second coming of Cael. Perhaps pump the brakes on that, eh?


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This train has no brakes. All steam, all the time.

[1032004]

1 hour ago, Le duke said:

I didn’t realize O’Toole’s bonus rate was that low.

People were talking about him as if he was the second coming of Cael. Perhaps pump the brakes on that, eh?


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Looks like 64% was the highest bonus rate among last year’s champs except for Steveson and Suriano (and Suriano only had 16 matches)

Edited November 25, 2022 by 1032004

[Wrestleknownothing]

12 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Looks like 64% was the highest bonus rate among last year’s champs except for Steveson and Suriano (and Suriano only had 16 matches)

One caveat about wrestlestat bonus rate calcs, they do not include MFOR in the numerator, but they do include them in the denominator. They should either be included in both or excluded from both. But in their current form, wrestlestat occassionally understates bonus rate. It was probably most notable last year due to the large number of MFOR and small number of matches.

[Threadkilla]

18 hours ago, Wrestej said:

Absolutely he is better on his feet and on the mat, both top and bottom.  I have watched over 50 matches of his and I have never once seen him in a position on the mat where he looks nervous or somewhere he is not in complete control.  I truly don’t think he loses another match in college, which means he will finish with one loss.  Best thing is we get to watch while he’s doing it.  He is must see.  Very few come along like him.  

I remember a  similar post.  "Will Thomasello win 4?"  Unless you are Nostradomas I will wait for more evidence..

[MPhillips]

4 minutes ago, Double Fish Hook said:

Will Thomasello

Who is Will Thomasello?

[BerniePragle]

39 minutes ago, MPhillips said:

Who is Will Thomasello?

 

[ionel]

45 minutes ago, MPhillips said:

Who is Will Thomasello?

Do you mean Bill? 

[MPhillips]

1 minute ago, ionel said:

Do you mean Bill? 

Ask Double fish... 

[Crablegs]

2 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

One caveat about wrestlestat bonus rate calcs, they do not include MFOR in the numerator, but they do include them in the denominator. They should either be included in both or excluded from both. But in their current form, wrestlestat occassionally understates bonus rate. It was probably most notable last year due to the large number of MFOR and small number of matches.

That may or may not be true, but O’Toole did not have any of those, so it’s really meaningless to this discussion.

[ionel]

13 minutes ago, MPhillips said:

Ask Double fish... 

Do you mean Worm Bait? 

[Wrestleknownothing]

16 minutes ago, Crablegs said:

That may or may not be true, but O’Toole did not have any of those, so it’s really meaningless to this discussion.

Careful, if you start using Dan techniques the mods may get confused and do something regrettable.

Also, since my response was to a comment about 10 wrestlers, some of whom absolutely did have some of those, it absolutely was meaningful.

[1032004]

22 minutes ago, Crablegs said:

That may or may not be true, but O’Toole did not have any of those, so it’s really meaningless to this discussion.

I’m not sure your argument, are you saying a 64% bonus rate isn’t good, particularly for a second year wrestler?

He had 9 regular decisions out of 25 matches.   4 of those were at NCAA’s.  Other than the 6-5 finals match, he outscored those other 3 opponents 13-0.  In total of his 9 regular decisions, 2 were by 7 points, 2 were by 6, and 1 was by 5.  The only match he won by less than 4 points outside of NCAA’s was against previous AA Wittlake.  He also had 7 pins.

And all of his matches were against D1 competition.  Carr was 20-0 with 4 pins and a 65% bonus rate in 2021…except 5 of his wins were against non-D1 (2 pins and 3 techs).  So 13/20 = 65%, but remove those 5 and it’s 8/15 = 53%.

[Crablegs]

6 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

I’m not sure your argument, are you saying a 64% bonus rate isn’t good, particularly for a second year wrestler?

It’s very good, and I’m a huge fan of O’Toole.  He’s awesome. 
 

My only point is that when you’re comparing him and Carr both had had relatively similar careers, so using those stats to somehow make an argument for O’Toole in that specific match up just doesn’t make sense. Both have a Junior world title and a 1st and a 3rd at their two trips to NCAAs.  Both of their championship seasons they had over 60% bonus.  Splitting hairs between these 2 and I don’t think the stats argue one way or another.
 

 

 

 

[Mizzou Fan]

22 hours ago, Gibby Haynes said:

O'toole may have to beat carr 4 times this year. Scuffle,isu dual,big 12s and nationals. That's more than carr has lost his entire career.

If Carr is beat badly the first time vs O'toole, he may just drop to 57!

[Wrestej]

15 minutes ago, Crablegs said:

It’s very good, and I’m a huge fan of O’Toole.  He’s awesome. 
 

My only point is that when you’re comparing him and Carr both had had relatively similar careers, so using those stats to somehow make an argument for O’Toole in that specific match up just doesn’t make sense. Both have a Junior world title and a 1st and a 3rd at their two trips to NCAAs.  Both of their championship seasons they had over 60% bonus.  Splitting hairs between these 2 and I don’t think the stats argue one way or another.
 

 

 

 

Except Carr was at 157 not nearly as deep as 165, either year.   Of course, all of this is relative because it’s just my opinion, which doesn’t mean shit.  

[MPhillips]

3 minutes ago, Wrestej said:

Of course, all of this is relative because it’s just my opinion, which doesn’t mean shit.

It doesn't but the 157/165 does.

[Crablegs]

18 minutes ago, Wrestej said:

Except Carr was at 157 not nearly as deep as 165, either year.   Of course, all of this is relative because it’s just my opinion, which doesn’t mean shit.  

So in your opinion, Hidlay and Deakin<Wick and Marinelli.  Not sure I agree about that.

[1032004]

48 minutes ago, Crablegs said:

It’s very good, and I’m a huge fan of O’Toole.  He’s awesome. 
 

My only point is that when you’re comparing him and Carr both had had relatively similar careers, so using those stats to somehow make an argument for O’Toole in that specific match up just doesn’t make sense. Both have a Junior world title and a 1st and a 3rd at their two trips to NCAAs.  Both of their championship seasons they had over 60% bonus.  Splitting hairs between these 2 and I don’t think the stats argue one way or another.
 

 

 

 

I would definitely lean O’Toole because Carr is bumping up.  But I’d be surprised if he majors him

[1032004]

57 minutes ago, Crablegs said:

It’s very good, and I’m a huge fan of O’Toole.  He’s awesome. 
 

My only point is that when you’re comparing him and Carr both had had relatively similar careers, so using those stats to somehow make an argument for O’Toole in that specific match up just doesn’t make sense. Both have a Junior world title and a 1st and a 3rd at their two trips to NCAAs.  Both of their championship seasons they had over 60% bonus.  Splitting hairs between these 2 and I don’t think the stats argue one way or another.
 

 

 

 

Also I’m pretty sure there were people saying “I don’t think Carr loses another match in college” after his first title.  Obviously a lot can can happen in 3 years.

I don’t really recall that conversation about Tomasello though.   He had 4 losses the year he won