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Estimated probability of competing in college athletics


bnwtwg

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NCAA Article link here which was last updated April 8, 2020

Nearly eight million students currently participate in high school athletics in the United States.  More than 480,000 compete as NCAA athletes, and just a select few within each sport move on to compete at the professional or Olympic level.

The table shows how many high school and NCAA athletes compete in each sport along with an estimate of the percentage of high school athletes going on to compete in the NCAA. 

In contrast, the likelihood of an NCAA athlete earning a college degree is significantly greater;  graduation success rates are 86% in Division I, 71% in Division II and 87% in Division III.

  High School Participants NCAA Participants Overall % HS to NCAA % HS to NCAA Division I % HS to NCAA Division II % HS to NCAA Division III
Men
Baseball 482,740 36,011 7.5% 2.2% 2.3% 2.9%
Basketball 540,769 18,816 3.5% 1.0% 1.0% 1.4%
Cross Country 269,295 14,303 5.3% 1.8% 1.4% 2.1%
Football 1,006,013 73,712 7.3% 2.9% 1.9% 2.5%
Golf 143,200 8,485 5.9% 2.0% 1.6% 2.2%
Ice Hockey 35,283 4,323 12.3% 4.8% 0.6% 6.8%
Lacrosse 113,702 14,603 12.8% 3.1% 2.5% 7.3%
Soccer 459,077 25,499 5.6% 1.3% 1.5% 2.7%
Swimming 136,638 9,799 7.2% 2.8% 1.2% 3.2%
Tennis 159,314 7,785 4.9% 1.6% 1.0% 2.3%
Track & Field 605,354 28,914 4.8% 1.9% 1.2% 1.7%
Volleyball 63,563 2,355 3.7% 0.7% 0.7% 2.3%
Water Polo 22,475 1,072 4.8% 2.7% 0.8% 1.3%
Wrestling 247,441 7,300 3.0% 1.0% 0.8% 1.2%

 

tl;dr Men's wrestling has the lowest overall HS-to-NCAA rate of any sport listed above so don't be a psycho parent.

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Thanks for sharing this information.   Notice how (other than cross country), individualized sports tend to have around the same quantity of participants at the NCAA level?    I'm referring to golf, tennis, swimming & of course wrestling.   I guess cross country has the lowest overhead since no pool, course, court or indoor training facility is necessary.   

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Now I'd be curious as to what the statistics are for high school girls sports.  Anecdotally, the local rumor is that girls who participate in the Field side of Track and Field have a very good chance of a scholarship, but I wonder whether or not that is true.  

(Unless, of course these data already include females?)

Edited by lightweight
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2 hours ago, lightweight said:

Now I'd be curious as to what the statistics are for high school girls sports.  Anecdotally, the local rumor is that girls who participate in the Field side of Track and Field have a very good chance of a scholarship, but I wonder whether or not that is true.  

(Unless, of course these data already include females?)

That's a false anecdote. There is less of a chance for a scholarship for track, field, or xc than even in wrestling and maybe as bad as swimming. Very much falls into the self-funded group.

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1 hour ago, TitleIX is ripe for reform said:

Swimming lacks scholarships?   That's ironic, considering how I've previously been told by a female NCAA D1 scholarship recipient (and friend) that it's a sport that attracts quality students whose families tend to be at least emotionally supportive of them.   

Let's ask @Wrestleknownothing.  He may not know about wrestling but he is a swimknowathing.  

Hey Wkn!!

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12 minutes ago, ionel said:

Let's ask @Wrestleknownothing.  He may not know about wrestling but he is a swimknowathing.  

Hey Wkn!!

Would you believe me if I told you I turned down a swimming scholarship for the chance to pay my own way through college at a school without a regulation size pool?

Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge

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10 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Would you believe me if I told you I turned down a swimming scholarship for the chance to pay my own way through college at a school without a regulation size pool?

Yes ... yes I would.  

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Not all scholarships are created equal.   Perhaps the scholarship didn't make up for the nevertheless higher tuition at the school you turned down.   

Or maybe the other school (at which you paid your own way) had other pluses, such as a high school girlfriend (or a few).  I avoided one university in part because it had around half a dozen ex girlfriends or ex gal friends with benefits.    Can you imagine walking into a party where all of them happen to be simultaneously?   Yikes.   
 

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21 minutes ago, TitleIX is ripe for reform said:

Not all scholarships are created equal.   Perhaps the scholarship didn't make up for the nevertheless higher tuition at the school you turned down.   

Or maybe the other school (at which you paid your own way) had other pluses, such as a high school girlfriend (or a few).  I avoided one university in part because it had around half a dozen ex girlfriends or ex gal friends with benefits.    Can you imagine walking into a party where all of them happen to be simultaneously?   Yikes.   
 

Maybe if you'd gone for the education ... 🤷‍♀️

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40 minutes ago, TitleIX is ripe for reform said:

Not all scholarships are created equal.   Perhaps the scholarship didn't make up for the nevertheless higher tuition at the school you turned down.   

Or maybe the other school (at which you paid your own way) had other pluses, such as a high school girlfriend (or a few).  I avoided one university in part because it had around half a dozen ex girlfriends or ex gal friends with benefits.    Can you imagine walking into a party where all of them happen to be simultaneously?   Yikes.   
 

I turned down the scholarship to go to the more expensive school. And I have never had to avoid ex-girlfriends.

You do like to project your circumstances on to others. I can't help but wonder if that informs your abhorrent opinions on sexual assault as well.

Edited by Wrestleknownothing
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I wanted to go where I would have an empty slate, so's not to feel the mutual awkwardness of encountering someone when I wanted to encounter folks I didn't yet know (and probably vice versa, as was their right).   Many say that college is supposed to be about branching out and expanding one's horizons.   Nowadays, though, I'm happy to remain in contact with all of my post-high school exes who feel the same.    I'd prefer not to see 'em with significant others though (and vice versa).    

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Lots of athletes do multiple sports in high school and focus on one on college.

Lots of athletes do sports in high school, but don't continue through senior year (seniors are often the smallest class on a team). The attrition starts well before college.

Not everyone even goes to college! 

I can see why wrestling might have the lowest number just by my intuition that wrestling is probably one of the least fun sports to be mediocre to poor at when competing against better athletes. In a team sport, if you suck, you can sit on the bench, and get some minutes when your team plays a shitty team. In track, if you suck, you can lose, but still have fun and set a personal best. In wrestling, if you suck, you'll just mostly lose.

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18 hours ago, bnwtwg said:

That's a false anecdote. There is less of a chance for a scholarship for track, field, or xc than even in wrestling and maybe as bad as swimming. Very much falls into the self-funded group.

I'm not so sure of that.  Both sports are allowed to offer partial scholarships.  D1 Men's XC/ track has a max of 12.6 scholarships to partial out while the women get 18.  Like wrestling, few get the full ride.  At 50%, that's 15 men and 36 women with financial aid.  In wrestling, few get 50%, most are more like 25%, particularly those with hoards in the room.

Women's XC/Track can easily mete out 18 full scholarships and field a complete and competitive team across all events.

In almost every sport with men's and women's teams, the women get far more scholarships to offer, mainly to make up for the volume football gets allocated, 85. 

ex. - men's basketball - 13, women's -15; men's gymnastics - 6.3, women's - 12; men's swimming - 9.9, women's - 14

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