Estimated probability of competing in college athletics

[bnwtwg]

NCAA Article link here which was last updated April 8, 2020

Nearly eight million students currently participate in high school athletics in the United States.  More than 480,000 compete as NCAA athletes, and just a select few within each sport move on to compete at the professional or Olympic level.

The table shows how many high school and NCAA athletes compete in each sport along with an estimate of the percentage of high school athletes going on to compete in the NCAA. 

In contrast, the likelihood of an NCAA athlete earning a college degree is significantly greater;  graduation success rates are 86% in Division I, 71% in Division II and 87% in Division III.

	High School Participants	NCAA Participants	Overall % HS to NCAA	% HS to NCAA Division I	% HS to NCAA Division II	% HS to NCAA Division III
Men
Baseball	482,740	36,011	7.5%	2.2%	2.3%	2.9%
Basketball	540,769	18,816	3.5%	1.0%	1.0%	1.4%
Cross Country	269,295	14,303	5.3%	1.8%	1.4%	2.1%
Football	1,006,013	73,712	7.3%	2.9%	1.9%	2.5%
Golf	143,200	8,485	5.9%	2.0%	1.6%	2.2%
Ice Hockey	35,283	4,323	12.3%	4.8%	0.6%	6.8%
Lacrosse	113,702	14,603	12.8%	3.1%	2.5%	7.3%
Soccer	459,077	25,499	5.6%	1.3%	1.5%	2.7%
Swimming	136,638	9,799	7.2%	2.8%	1.2%	3.2%
Tennis	159,314	7,785	4.9%	1.6%	1.0%	2.3%
Track & Field	605,354	28,914	4.8%	1.9%	1.2%	1.7%
Volleyball	63,563	2,355	3.7%	0.7%	0.7%	2.3%
Water Polo	22,475	1,072	4.8%	2.7%	0.8%	1.3%
Wrestling	247,441	7,300	3.0%	1.0%	0.8%	1.2%

 

tl;dr Men's wrestling has the lowest overall HS-to-NCAA rate of any sport listed above so don't be a psycho parent.

[TitleIX is ripe for reform]

So wrestling has over twice the high school participants as lacrosse, but approximately half as many NCAA participants as lacrosse?    Maybe because lacrosse has been available to females for far longer, thereby alleviating the pressures to eliminate the men's programs?   

[ionel]

Looks like I picked the wrong day to give up lacrosse.

[TitleIX is ripe for reform]

Or the right day to help wrestling get on the right track and catch up, NCAA-wise?   
 

[TitleIX is ripe for reform]

Thanks for sharing this information.   Notice how (other than cross country), individualized sports tend to have around the same quantity of participants at the NCAA level?    I'm referring to golf, tennis, swimming & of course wrestling.   I guess cross country has the lowest overhead since no pool, course, court or indoor training facility is necessary.   

[lightweight]

Interesting data.

If I am reading this correctly, the odds of a high school wrestler wrestling at the D1 level are about 2x the odds of a high school basketball player playing D1 basketball?

[Wrestleknownothing]

3 hours ago, lightweight said:

Interesting data.

If I am reading this correctly, the odds of a high school wrestler wrestling at the D1 level are about 2x the odds of a high school basketball player playing D1 basketball?

They are both 1%

[lightweight]

11 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

They are both 1%

Point well-taken.

 

[lightweight]

Now I'd be curious as to what the statistics are for high school girls sports.  Anecdotally, the local rumor is that girls who participate in the Field side of Track and Field have a very good chance of a scholarship, but I wonder whether or not that is true.  

(Unless, of course these data already include females?)

Edited October 10, 2023 by lightweight

[bnwtwg]

2 hours ago, lightweight said:

Now I'd be curious as to what the statistics are for high school girls sports.  Anecdotally, the local rumor is that girls who participate in the Field side of Track and Field have a very good chance of a scholarship, but I wonder whether or not that is true.  

(Unless, of course these data already include females?)

That's a false anecdote. There is less of a chance for a scholarship for track, field, or xc than even in wrestling and maybe as bad as swimming. Very much falls into the self-funded group.

[TitleIX is ripe for reform]

Swimming lacks scholarships?   That's ironic, considering how I've previously been told by a female NCAA D1 scholarship recipient (and friend) that it's a sport that attracts quality students whose families tend to be at least emotionally supportive of them.   

[ionel]

1 hour ago, TitleIX is ripe for reform said:

Swimming lacks scholarships?   That's ironic, considering how I've previously been told by a female NCAA D1 scholarship recipient (and friend) that it's a sport that attracts quality students whose families tend to be at least emotionally supportive of them.   

Let's ask @Wrestleknownothing.  He may not know about wrestling but he is a swimknowathing.  

Hey Wkn!!

[Wrestleknownothing]

12 minutes ago, ionel said:

Let's ask @Wrestleknownothing.  He may not know about wrestling but he is a swimknowathing.  

Hey Wkn!!

Would you believe me if I told you I turned down a swimming scholarship for the chance to pay my own way through college at a school without a regulation size pool?

[ionel]

10 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Would you believe me if I told you I turned down a swimming scholarship for the chance to pay my own way through college at a school without a regulation size pool?

Yes ... yes I would.  

[TitleIX is ripe for reform]

Not all scholarships are created equal.   Perhaps the scholarship didn't make up for the nevertheless higher tuition at the school you turned down.   

Or maybe the other school (at which you paid your own way) had other pluses, such as a high school girlfriend (or a few).  I avoided one university in part because it had around half a dozen ex girlfriends or ex gal friends with benefits.    Can you imagine walking into a party where all of them happen to be simultaneously?   Yikes.   
 

[ionel]

21 minutes ago, TitleIX is ripe for reform said:

Not all scholarships are created equal.   Perhaps the scholarship didn't make up for the nevertheless higher tuition at the school you turned down.   

Or maybe the other school (at which you paid your own way) had other pluses, such as a high school girlfriend (or a few).  I avoided one university in part because it had around half a dozen ex girlfriends or ex gal friends with benefits.    Can you imagine walking into a party where all of them happen to be simultaneously?   Yikes.   
 

Maybe if you'd gone for the education ... 

[Wrestleknownothing]

40 minutes ago, TitleIX is ripe for reform said:

Not all scholarships are created equal.   Perhaps the scholarship didn't make up for the nevertheless higher tuition at the school you turned down.   

Or maybe the other school (at which you paid your own way) had other pluses, such as a high school girlfriend (or a few).  I avoided one university in part because it had around half a dozen ex girlfriends or ex gal friends with benefits.    Can you imagine walking into a party where all of them happen to be simultaneously?   Yikes.   
 

I turned down the scholarship to go to the more expensive school. And I have never had to avoid ex-girlfriends.

You do like to project your circumstances on to others. I can't help but wonder if that informs your abhorrent opinions on sexual assault as well.

Edited October 10, 2023 by Wrestleknownothing

[TitleIX is ripe for reform]

I wanted to go where I would have an empty slate, so's not to feel the mutual awkwardness of encountering someone when I wanted to encounter folks I didn't yet know (and probably vice versa, as was their right).   Many say that college is supposed to be about branching out and expanding one's horizons.   Nowadays, though, I'm happy to remain in contact with all of my post-high school exes who feel the same.    I'd prefer not to see 'em with significant others though (and vice versa).    

[Idaho]

Over here in our parts, ice hockey and water polo aren't  real popular HS sports. 

[TitleIX is ripe for reform]

Ice hockey's not popular in Idaho?   It sure has been in Minnesota.   OK, they're not exactly neighbors.   But Canada is.  That's a hockey haven, like parts of Russia (from what I gather).   

[flyingcement]

Water polo is for pretty boy rich kids mostly

[ionel]

2 minutes ago, flyingcement said:

Water polo is for pretty boy rich kids mostly

$$$fly$$$

[PencilNeck]

Lots of athletes do multiple sports in high school and focus on one on college.

Lots of athletes do sports in high school, but don't continue through senior year (seniors are often the smallest class on a team). The attrition starts well before college.

Not everyone even goes to college! 

I can see why wrestling might have the lowest number just by my intuition that wrestling is probably one of the least fun sports to be mediocre to poor at when competing against better athletes. In a team sport, if you suck, you can sit on the bench, and get some minutes when your team plays a shitty team. In track, if you suck, you can lose, but still have fun and set a personal best. In wrestling, if you suck, you'll just mostly lose.

[TitleIX is ripe for reform]

And get injured.   I've read that wrestling's the most injury-plagued sport in college.  I wouldn't be surprised if that's applicable for high school too.  I played football in h.s., and for me there were more injuries during wrestling season (especially the shoulders).        

 

[RYou]

18 hours ago, bnwtwg said:

That's a false anecdote. There is less of a chance for a scholarship for track, field, or xc than even in wrestling and maybe as bad as swimming. Very much falls into the self-funded group.

I'm not so sure of that.  Both sports are allowed to offer partial scholarships.  D1 Men's XC/ track has a max of 12.6 scholarships to partial out while the women get 18.  Like wrestling, few get the full ride.  At 50%, that's 15 men and 36 women with financial aid.  In wrestling, few get 50%, most are more like 25%, particularly those with hoards in the room.

Women's XC/Track can easily mete out 18 full scholarships and field a complete and competitive team across all events.

In almost every sport with men's and women's teams, the women get far more scholarships to offer, mainly to make up for the volume football gets allocated, 85. 

ex. - men's basketball - 13, women's -15; men's gymnastics - 6.3, women's - 12; men's swimming - 9.9, women's - 14