PSU's lineup for 2023-24

[peanut]

Has any lineup in recent memory looked this good during the preseason?

Obviously there are no guarantees in life -- injuries happen, accidents happen, personal issues happen, etc. But as of now, this is a crazy lineup.

Based on Wrestlestat rankings, PSU has:

• 125- #25 Howard
• 133- #3 Nagao
• 141- #3 Bartlett
• 149- #2 Van Ness
• 157- #2 Haines
• 165- #14 Facundo / Mesenbrink
• 174- #1 Starocci
• 184- #3 Truax
• 197- #1 Brooks
• 285- #2 Kerkvliet

[Ohio Elite]

Didn't they get a 125 from Michigan State thats supposed to be decent? Undersized maybe..

[buckshot]

4 minutes ago, Ohio Elite said:

Didn't they get a 125 from Michigan State thats supposed to be decent? Undersized maybe..

Kurt Henry from Michigan.

I feel like the news out of Iowa may change their lineup a bit now. With half the Hawkeyes suspended PSU might shirt a couple guys and still cruise to a title.

[wrestlingest2010]

11 minutes ago, buckshot said:

Kurt Henry from Michigan.

I feel like the news out of Iowa may change their lineup a bit now. With half the Hawkeyes suspended PSU might shirt a couple guys and still cruise to a title.

PSU was going to cruise even with Iowa at full strength. They have what 8 guys returning who project as upper AAs. Then Mesenbrink? 

Nagao

Bartlett

Van Ness

Haines

Starocci

Truax

Brooks

Kerkvliet

It comes down to balancing a chance for the scoring record with individual goals (Brooks/Starocci ORS maybe) Cael doesn't give two s***s about what is happening at Iowa

[Wrestleknownothing]

43 minutes ago, wrestlingest2010 said:

PSU was going to cruise even with Iowa at full strength. They have what 8 guys returning who project as upper AAs. Then Mesenbrink? 

Nagao

Bartlett

Van Ness

Haines

Starocci

Truax

Brooks

Kerkvliet

It comes down to balancing a chance for the scoring record with individual goals (Brooks/Starocci ORS maybe) Cael doesn't give two s***s about what is happening at Iowa

Thos version of Penn State doesn't score nearly enough bonus points to threaten the scoring record.

[wrestlingest2010]

3 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Thos version of Penn State doesn't score nearly enough bonus points to threaten the scoring record.

Just go off placement and advancement

Nagao 13.5

Bartlett 13.5

SVN 13.5

Haines 20

Mesenbrink 10

Starocci 20

Truax 16

Brooks 20

Kerkvliet 16

That's 142.5. With 3 point takedowns? They can very much threaten 170 with 9 guys like that. 

I also only picked 3 champs when SVN, Truax, Kerkvliet can win as well. I'd put Mesenbrink ahead of 5 also. 

[gimpeltf]

4 hours ago, buckshot said:

Kurt Henry from Michigan.

I feel like the news out of Iowa may change their lineup a bit now. With half the Hawkeyes suspended PSU might shirt a couple guys and still cruise to a title.

McHenry

[nhs67]

Kurt McHenry has a legitimate chance to start for them this season.

Ryan Howard has done nothing that should convince anyone otherwise.

Also incoming true frosh Braeden Davis (really any of their four lightweight true frosh) as well as incumbent starter Gary Steen are both well in the conversation to be the starter by season's end.

If they have a hole, it is at 125lbs.

[1032004]

Do we think Cael actually cares about the scoring record?

[ionel]

9 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Do we think Cael actually cares about the scoring record?

No ...he just want to have fun and would like to have 10 individual champions.

[nhs67]

2 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Do we think Cael actually cares about the scoring record?

I think he cares about having fun and setting up for the NLWC to dominate OTT.

That makes me on the fence at 50/50 for Stalrocci.  If he believes 74 KG is his for the taking, he needs to take the next many months properly preparing for a decent, or already doing so.  Hell... even a drop to 165 would better prepare him for that than wrestling an entire season depleted at 174 with the entirety of NCAA D1 wrestlers targeting you and your 'style' of wrestling. 

He needs to feel that weight before OTT.  If he thinks he can give Dake all he can handle because his 185lb self is giving Dake a handful, he needs to understand what a 170lb Stalrocci performs at.

I also think many of the other gents will be focusing on that so we could see some what appear to be 'depleted' rosters if there are large international events that his gents want to taste.

In my perfect world, because I believe a better Penn State is better for USA Wrestling, that means that they do put a primary focus on OTT for everyone.

125 - Howard, McHenry, Sheen, Davis (other frosh) - Wrestler by committee.  Let the best wrestler wrestle, period.  If a true frosh comes in and blows everyone out of the water... let him go.

133 - Nagao - Easy one here

141 - Bartlett - Easy one here

149 - SVN - Easy one here, although I don't know what that means for a 65 KG freestyle for him... I am all for it, but he has grown.

157 - Bearclaw, Lee, Lee - Let Haines (Oly?)-shirt.

165 - Stalrocci - Mesenbrink and Facundo Oly-shirt

174 - Barr - He can redshirt next season

184 - Truax - I think the NCAA champion will come from one of him, PK, or Munoz.  Whoever is opposite the other two at NCAAs will have a huge advantage.

197 - Brooks - Thicc Brooks is going to be lethal come OTT.

285 - Kerkvliet - I have him as #1 even if some people want to forget that the American Hero lost to him at NCAAs last season.

NLWC is going to be potentially jacked at 74 KG and not all will qualify, but...
Dake, Stalrocci, Nolf, Mesenbring, Facundo, Haines, (? Barr, Kasak ?).  Add in former NLWC gent in Joseph and it gets 'fun-fun' real quick.

Even with a 'depleted' lineup sans Haines/Facundo/Mesenbrink and Stalrocci dropping these guys run away with it upwards towards 150 points.

[1032004]

What's the point of Haines redshirting at this point when he can win the title?

I kinda get what you're saying about Starocci, but if he thinks he has a shot to beat Dake then he shouldn't have a problem winning 174 while weighing 170 or whatever.   I don't think maintaining close to 165 for the whole season is ideal, unless maybe he only wrestles a couple dates before B10's.   But beating O'Toole/Carr would probably be more impressive to me than winning 174 IMO.

Mesenbrink is the one who should probably redshirt for sure, so he can duck O'Toole and Carr and have a better chance at being the next 4x undefeated champ (not saying he will, just a better chance).   Facundo should probably wrestle while he can start, and is of course a capable option that should score some points at NCAA's.

[nhs67]

32 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

What's the point of Haines redshirting at this point when he can win the title?

I kinda get what you're saying about Starocci, but if he thinks he has a shot to beat Dake then he shouldn't have a problem winning 174 while weighing 170 or whatever.   I don't think maintaining close to 165 for the whole season is ideal, unless maybe he only wrestles a couple dates before B10's.   But beating O'Toole/Carr would probably be more impressive to me than winning 174 IMO.

Mesenbrink is the one who should probably redshirt for sure, so he can duck O'Toole and Carr and have a better chance at being the next 4x undefeated champ (not saying he will, just a better chance).   Facundo should probably wrestle while he can start, and is of course a capable option that should score some points at NCAA's.

I think your take is much more realistic than mine.  Mine is a 'If they focus purely on OTT as a priorty' sort of thing.

They would still easily win the title, too.

[RandolphTJones]

11 hours ago, buckshot said:

Kurt Henry from Michigan.

I feel like the news out of Iowa may change their lineup a bit now. With half the Hawkeyes suspended PSU might shirt a couple guys and still cruise to a title.

True, or just try to beat the NCAA scoring record.

[Wrestleknownothing]

10 hours ago, wrestlingest2010 said:

Just go off placement and advancement

Nagao 13.5

Bartlett 13.5

SVN 13.5

Haines 20

Mesenbrink 10

Starocci 20

Truax 16

Brooks 20

Kerkvliet 16

That's 142.5. With 3 point takedowns? They can very much threaten 170 with 9 guys like that. 

I also only picked 3 champs when SVN, Truax, Kerkvliet can win as well. I'd put Mesenbrink ahead of 5 also. 

OK, let's play that out. Last year their returning starters placed DNP, 5, 3, 3, 2, DNP, 1, 4 (up a weight), 1 (down a weight), 2. 

This year you have them DNP, 3, 3, 3, 1, 5, 1, 2, 1, 2.

They return 136.5 points and you are calling for 142.5. Perhaps a bit aggressive, but certainly not unrealistic.

Last year their returning starters had 20 bonus points. With the added points per takedown they would have had the 10 incremental bonus points (0, 0.5, 1, 2, 2, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0.5).

That puts them at 172.5. So, yes it is possible.

But is 170 really the number? Or do we rescore the Iowa total using the current rules? If so, it is 170.5 (unless it is 171.5, see Note below) Probably not, but I think we should even if I am sure to be in the minority here.

NOTE: Back in May when I rescored the 1997 Iowa team using 1997 scoring rules I came up with 171, not 170. I asked if anyone knew what the difference was attributable to (did I make a mistake?, was there a team point deduction?), but no one seemed to know the answer, or at least no one I asked.

[lu1979]

1 hour ago, 1032004 said:

Mesenbrink is the one who should probably redshirt for sure, so he can duck O'Toole and Carr and have a better chance at being the next 4x undefeated champ (not saying he will, just a better chance).   Facundo should probably wrestle while he can start, and is of course a capable option that should score some points at NCAA's.

Carr is done this year but O'Toole has two more years if he wants to use the extra one.

[11986]

Starocci to 165 battling O'Toole and Carr would be pretty crazy (as in I'd like to see it). 

Edited August 23, 2023 by 11986
edit

[1032004]

12 minutes ago, lu1979 said:

Carr is done this year but O'Toole has two more years if he wants to use the extra one.

Correct but I believe there was talk of him going up to 174 for his senior year right? This will be Mocco's last year.

[1032004]

1 hour ago, 11986 said:

Starocci to 165 battling O'Toole and Carr would be pretty crazy (as in I'd like to see it). 

Yeah I hadn't really thought of that before but it does kinda make sense for Starocci since he may not wrestle a ton anyway, and yes would be awesome to see.    I don't think O'Toole would go 174 with Mocco there, but Carr might.

[wrestlingest2010]

2 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

OK, let's play that out. Last year their returning starters placed DNP, 5, 3, 3, 2, DNP, 1, 4 (up a weight), 1 (down a weight), 2. 

This year you have them DNP, 3, 3, 3, 1, 5, 1, 2, 1, 2.

They return 136.5 points and you are calling for 142.5. Perhaps a bit aggressive, but certainly not unrealistic.

Last year their returning starters had 20 bonus points. With the added points per takedown they would have had the 10 incremental bonus points (0, 0.5, 1, 2, 2, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0.5).

That puts them at 172.5. So, yes it is possible.

But is 170 really the number? Or do we rescore the Iowa total using the current rules? If so, it is 170.5 (unless it is 171.5, see Note below) Probably not, but I think we should even if I am sure to be in the minority here.

NOTE: Back in May when I rescored the 1997 Iowa team using 1997 scoring rules I came up with 171, not 170. I asked if anyone knew what the difference was attributable to (did I make a mistake?, was there a team point deduction?), but no one seemed to know the answer, or at least no one I asked.

I appreciate your research (especially breakdown of additional bonus) but how am I being a bit aggressive? I know it sounds ridiculous to put so many people that high but that's the kind of team PSU has right now. History says if anything PSU overachieves at NCAAs. I kind of evened it out if anything: 

1. I kept Bartlett 3rd, moving Hardy back ahead of him after Alirez redshirts. This is after he more or less beat Nick Lee in freestyle.

2. I kept Van Ness 3rd, I am putting a true freshman and Lovett back ahead of him. This is a kid who missed his entire freshman year and if anything is due for a PSU jump since he spent his freshman year redshirting. 

3. I put Kerkvliet 2nd even though he's the highest returner since I thought Hendrickson kind of looked better than him overall at NCAAs. 

4. I put Mesenbrink 5th which is where the jump from 136.5 to 142.5 came from mostly, I don't think saying he can place 5th is that ridiculous after how he looked at U20s.

The point is you said they don't threaten the 170 total (the total is 170 bottom line, I have no idea where they were missing a point but that's the record and that's the target if you want to beat the record), they clearly can with the breakdown we both showed. Does it happen? It'll be tough but it's definitely worth talking about.  

[PortaJohn]

1 hour ago, 1032004 said:

Correct but I believe there was talk of him going up to 174 for his senior year right? This will be Mocco's last year.

Correct, Askren on FRL made it seem like a foregone conclusion he'll finish his career at 174 and already would've done it if Mocco wasn't in the picture

[bnwtwg]

There is no way Starocci is going to effectively make 165 two days for B1Gs, three days for NCAAs, and then two days for OTT. He might make weight but he ain't gonna do sheeeeeeeiiiiiittttttt if he attempts to do it. He's going to go 174 and likely have already been slowly descending for some time. Or he can plan to go 86 and enjoy eating + recovering for two weeks after NCAAs before it's time to ramp up again.

[Wrestleknownothing]

57 minutes ago, wrestlingest2010 said:

I appreciate your research (especially breakdown of additional bonus) but how am I being a bit aggressive? I know it sounds ridiculous to put so many people that high but that's the kind of team PSU has right now. History says if anything PSU overachieves at NCAAs. I kind of evened it out if anything: 

1. I kept Bartlett 3rd, moving Hardy back ahead of him after Alirez redshirts. This is after he more or less beat Nick Lee in freestyle.

2. I kept Van Ness 3rd, I am putting a true freshman and Lovett back ahead of him. This is a kid who missed his entire freshman year and if anything is due for a PSU jump since he spent his freshman year redshirting. 

3. I put Kerkvliet 2nd even though he's the highest returner since I thought Hendrickson kind of looked better than him overall at NCAAs. 

4. I put Mesenbrink 5th which is where the jump from 136.5 to 142.5 came from mostly, I don't think saying he can place 5th is that ridiculous after how he looked at U20s.

The point is you said they don't threaten the 170 total (the total is 170 bottom line, I have no idea where they were missing a point but that's the record and that's the target if you want to beat the record), they clearly can with the breakdown we both showed. Does it happen? It'll be tough but it's definitely worth talking about.  

A bit aggressive in that you are projecting them to outperform their prior selves by 6 points. Again, not unrealistic, just a bit aggressive.

As for the PSU premium, by comparing to themselves, the PSU premium is already baked in.

As for specific weight predictions, it is easy to say the logic of each is exactly correct, and therefore the sum is correct. But in reality, some will be high and some will be low.

While I did say they won't threaten the 170 total, I also said on further reflection/analysis that, yes, it is possible. I would have a hard time picking either the over or the under at this point.

[wrestlingest2010]

1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

A bit aggressive in that you are projecting them to outperform their prior selves by 6 points. Again, not unrealistic, just a bit aggressive.

As for the PSU premium, by comparing to themselves, the PSU premium is already baked in.

As for specific weight predictions, it is easy to say the logic of each is exactly correct, and therefore the sum is correct. But in reality, some will be high and some will be low.

While I did say they won't threaten the 170 total, I also said on further reflection/analysis that, yes, it is possible. I would have a hard time picking either the over or the under at this point.

Then that's my bad, I thought you meant there is no way they can get it. I mean gun to my head, I would pick they do not get it. 

[ionel]

4 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

A bit aggressive in that you are projecting them to outperform their prior selves by 6 points. Again, not unrealistic, just a bit aggressive.

As for the PSU premium, by comparing to themselves, the PSU premium is already baked in.

As for specific weight predictions, it is easy to say the logic of each is exactly correct, and therefore the sum is correct. But in reality, some will be high and some will be low.

While I did say they won't threaten the 170 total, I also said on further reflection/analysis that, yes, it is possible. I would have a hard time picking either the over or the under at this point.

What do you know?