new 3 point takedown....get ready to see tons of tech falls?

[Bardamu911]

I haven't been paying too much attention so maybe this has been addressed, but the 3 point takedown rule is gonna increase tech falls by, like, uhhh, a lot? the "catch and release" will now gain the attacking wrestler 2 points instead of just 1 so racking up points just became hella easier for dominant wrestlers which will impact team scoring as well. Am I over thinking this? Under thinking this? Am I missing something? This seems like a fundamental change to the sport rather than just a big tweak. 

[nhs67]

I think we will see more, yes.

There are a dozen or so matches that I watch each season, and likely many dozens I don't see, where a kid sees he is within striking distance of a tech and starts the TD/E dance.  This makes that chase much less as four TD and three E is now a 12-3 split rather than a 8-3 split.

[PortaJohn]

@Wrestleknownothing will be a pig in mud in this thread

[CraigOR]

7 TD's and 6 escapes should about do it.

[mspart]

Yeah, I was saying earlier was that they need to increase the points needed to tech fall.   Otherwise I think there will be a lot more tech falls. 

mspart

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 hour ago, PortaJohn said:

@Wrestleknownothing will be a pig in mud in this thread

That doesn't sound like me....

But, as long as I have you here.

My guess is that we will see a good sized jump in the regular season where there are some big skill mismatches that will make catch and release a viable strategy.

But in the NCAA tournament we are unlikely to see that kind of talent disparity. For example, the TF without back points is the rarest of all animals. Going back to 2015 where they list whether something is a tech fall or major there have been 169 tech falls listed in the brackets and each and every one of them is listed as TF-1.5 (i.e. there were back points). Instead we look at majors that were near tech falls to guess which may have been bumped to tech falls with the addition of an extra take down point.

In the 2023 tournament there were 88 major decisions. The breakdown was:

• 8 point major: 29 (33%)
• 9 point major: 24 (27%)
• 10 point major: 16 (18%)
• 11 point major: 5 (6%)
• 12 point major: 9 (10%)
• 13 point major: 5 (6%)
• 14 point major: 0 (0%)

My guess is that very few to none of the 8 and 9 point majors become tech falls with the extra point. For example, lets say the score was 8-0 with 3 take downs, an escape and a riding time point. In the absence of more takedowns the new score would be 11-0. Of course, there is now a greater incentive to ride less and take down more, but I still think almost all 8 and 9 point majors would stay majors.

That leaves us the 10 - 14 point majors. All 14 point majors would become TF, but there were none last year. And almost all 13 point majors become TFs (lets say all). But the probability decreases as the difference decreases. If 67% of 12 pointers, 60% of 11 pointers and 50% of 10 pointers become 15+ pointers then last year we would be looking at an extra 22 tech falls.

Is 22 extra tech falls a lot? Damn straight it is. From 2015 to 2022 there were an average 23 tech falls. so, yes, a near 100% increase would be a lot.

Note:

There is one huge caveat. I only looked at major decisions in 2023. And the more careful reader may notice that 2023 was not included in my range in the paragraph above. If you want some free beer at the next NCAA tournament ask someone in a bar to set a line for the number of tech falls in the 2023 tournament, and you will pick over or under. You should almost certainly pick the under. There was a stunningly small number of tech falls last year which may also mean there were an abnormally large number of majors. I do not know because I did not check the number of majors any other year. Perhaps that could be your homework assignment. Think of it as extra credit.

Tech Falls by Year:

2015	12
2016	25
2017	33
2018	28
2019	22
2021	28
2022	12
2023	9

[Idaho]

1 hour ago, CraigOR said:

7 TD's and 6 escapes should about do it.

THey will happen much faster as well... might see more first round TF than we have ever seen. 

[PortaJohn]

13 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

That doesn't sound like me....

But, as long as I have you here.

My guess is that we will see a good sized jump in the regular season where there are some big skill mismatches that will make catch and release a viable strategy.

But in the NCAA tournament we are unlikely to see that kind of talent disparity. For example, the TF without back points is the rarest of all animals. Going back to 2015 where they list whether something is a tech fall or major there have been 169 tech falls listed in the brackets and each and every one of them is listed as TF-1.5 (i.e. there were back points). Instead we look at majors that were near tech falls to guess which may have been bumped to tech falls with the addition of an extra take down point.

In the 2023 tournament there were 88 major decisions. The breakdown was:

• 8 point major: 29 (33%)
• 9 point major: 24 (27%)
• 10 point major: 16 (18%)
• 11 point major: 5 (6%)
• 12 point major: 9 (10%)
• 13 point major: 5 (6%)
• 14 point major: 0 (0%)

My guess is that very few to none of the 8 and 9 point majors become tech falls with the extra point. For example, lets say the score was 8-0 with 3 take downs, an escape and a riding time point. In the absence of more takedowns the new score would be 11-0. Of course, there is now a greater incentive to ride less and take down more, but I still think almost all 8 and 9 point majors would stay majors.

That leaves us the 10 - 14 point majors. All 14 point majors would become TF, but there were none last year. And almost all 13 point majors become TFs (lets say all). But the probability decreases as the difference decreases. If 67% of 12 pointers, 60% of 11 pointers and 50% of 10 pointers become 15+ pointers then last year we would be looking at an extra 22 tech falls.

Is 22 extra tech falls a lot? Damn straight it is. From 2015 to 2022 there were an average 23 tech falls. so, yes, a near 100% increase would be a lot.

Note:

There is one huge caveat. I only looked at major decisions in 2023. And the more careful reader may notice that 2023 was not included in my range in the paragraph above. If you want some free beer at the next NCAA tournament ask someone in a bar to set a line for the number of tech falls in the 2023 tournament, and you will pick over or under. You should almost certainly pick the under. There was a stunningly small number of tech falls last year which may also mean there were an abnormally large number of majors. I do not know because I did not check the number of majors any other year. Perhaps that could be your homework assignment. Think of it as extra credit.

Tech Falls by Year:

2015	12
2016	25
2017	33
2018	28
2019	22
2021	28
2022	12
2023	9

Well, there you go @Bardamu911...you've got your answer

[WrestleFan12]

It's hard to believe that any garden-variety takedown is now the scoring equivalent (or greater) of putting another wrestler on his back for the required count. One is considerably harder than the other. This rule change is just silly, IMO. Thumbs down.

[Husker_Du]

10 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

That doesn't sound like me....

But, as long as I have you here.

My guess is that we will see a good sized jump in the regular season where there are some big skill mismatches that will make catch and release a viable strategy.

But in the NCAA tournament we are unlikely to see that kind of talent disparity. For example, the TF without back points is the rarest of all animals. Going back to 2015 where they list whether something is a tech fall or major there have been 169 tech falls listed in the brackets and each and every one of them is listed as TF-1.5 (i.e. there were back points). Instead we look at majors that were near tech falls to guess which may have been bumped to tech falls with the addition of an extra take down point.

In the 2023 tournament there were 88 major decisions. The breakdown was:

• 8 point major: 29 (33%)
• 9 point major: 24 (27%)
• 10 point major: 16 (18%)
• 11 point major: 5 (6%)
• 12 point major: 9 (10%)
• 13 point major: 5 (6%)
• 14 point major: 0 (0%)

My guess is that very few to none of the 8 and 9 point majors become tech falls with the extra point. For example, lets say the score was 8-0 with 3 take downs, an escape and a riding time point. In the absence of more takedowns the new score would be 11-0. Of course, there is now a greater incentive to ride less and take down more, but I still think almost all 8 and 9 point majors would stay majors.

That leaves us the 10 - 14 point majors. All 14 point majors would become TF, but there were none last year. And almost all 13 point majors become TFs (lets say all). But the probability decreases as the difference decreases. If 67% of 12 pointers, 60% of 11 pointers and 50% of 10 pointers become 15+ pointers then last year we would be looking at an extra 22 tech falls.

Is 22 extra tech falls a lot? Damn straight it is. From 2015 to 2022 there were an average 23 tech falls. so, yes, a near 100% increase would be a lot.

Note:

There is one huge caveat. I only looked at major decisions in 2023. And the more careful reader may notice that 2023 was not included in my range in the paragraph above. If you want some free beer at the next NCAA tournament ask someone in a bar to set a line for the number of tech falls in the 2023 tournament, and you will pick over or under. You should almost certainly pick the under. There was a stunningly small number of tech falls last year which may also mean there were an abnormally large number of majors. I do not know because I did not check the number of majors any other year. Perhaps that could be your homework assignment. Think of it as extra credit.

Tech Falls by Year:

2015	12
2016	25
2017	33
2018	28
2019	22
2021	28
2022	12
2023	9

great stuff.

can i steal some of this for twitter? 

[Wrestleknownothing]

5 minutes ago, Husker_Du said:

great stuff.

can i steal some of this for twitter? 

Have at it

[Husker_Du]

thanks, brotha

[fishbane]

21 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

 

My guess is that we will see a good sized jump in the regular season where there are some big skill mismatches that will make catch and release a viable strategy.

But in the NCAA tournament we are unlikely to see that kind of talent disparity. For example, the TF without back points is the rarest of all animals. Going back to 2015 where they list whether something is a tech fall or major there have been 169 tech falls listed in the brackets and each and every one of them is listed as TF-1.5 (i.e. there were back points). Instead we look at majors that were near tech falls to guess which may have been bumped to tech falls with the addition of an extra take down point.

I can't think of a time when I saw a wrestler at NCAAs trying a catch and release strategy to try and chase down a TF/MD.  I think this is almost exclusively a feature of dual meets where a bonus point is more significant in deciding the outcome and the team goal is at the forefront.  I would suspect you'd see it more there.  At NCAAs I would think there would be a bigger effect on MD numbers than FTs.  A three point match is now almost on a knife edge between OT and a MD.  

22 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

There was a stunningly small number of tech falls last year which may also mean there were an abnormally large number of majors. I do not know because I did not check the number of majors any other year. Perhaps that could be your homework assignment. Think of it as extra credit.

Tech Falls by Year:

2015	12
2016	25
2017	33
2018	28
2019	22
2021	28
2022	12
2023	9

2023 was the least competitive team race in the range of years in your table.  I'd expect a tight team race to increase the importance of bonus points and turn some of those MDs into FTs.  I added a column to your table with margin of victory in the team race.  There is a weak correlation

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

You all flunk the class for failure to turn in your homework on time.

It was bugging me to see if TF were down because MD were up at the 2023 tournament.

Nope. They were actually a little below average last year too.

 

In tabular form:

 

In graphical form:

 

Not much to say here other than the last two years were nothing like the prior five.

Now, if PSU breaks Iowa's total points scored record because of incremental bonus earned through incremental takedown points, is it tainted?

[Voice of the Quakers]

On 6/14/2023 at 1:51 PM, Idaho said:

THey will happen much faster as well... might see more first round TF than we have ever seen. 

I'm good with this. After I've seen one wrestler score seven straight TDs, I'm ready to move on to the next match.

[flyingcement]

@Wrestleknownothing, the above would seem to point toward an increase on parity among individual wrestlers (even if that is not true from a team standpoint). The only thing I might wonder is about is whether there was a decrease in total matches for some reason.  If that was the case, these could still be consistent from a percentage point of view. 

[fishbane]

47 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

The 4 point NF rule was enacted for the 2015-2016 season and it looks like there is a clear increase in bonus points following that.  2016 there were more bonus point victories than in the previous 8 season and over the next 5 years bonus point wins were even higher.  Every year 2016-2021 was higher than the highest year 2008-2015.

The last two years seem to be real outliers.  They had the fewest bonus point victories of the 15 in the table.  Maybe this is a COVID effect.  You have wrestlers sticking around for extra years starting in 2022, but the same number of qualifiers.  The guys that stuck around are generally better than average wrestlers which probably pulled up the ability of the average wrestler at the national tournament.  So the 33rd best wrestling in the field in 2022 and 2023 are likely better than the 33rd best wrestler in field in 2012.  This could possibly make for more competitive matches than we had been used to seeing.

What year did they change to at large selections and using in-season results to select qualifiers?  

[Wrestleknownothing]

20 minutes ago, flyingcement said:

@Wrestleknownothing, the above would seem to point toward an increase on parity among individual wrestlers (even if that is not true from a team standpoint). The only thing I might wonder is about is whether there was a decrease in total matches for some reason.  If that was the case, these could still be consistent from a percentage point of view. 

Even though they were not yet fixed at 33 wrestlers per weight, it looks like 2008 had only 2 more matches than 2023. 

And it looks like 2009 is when they went to 33 man brackets. Though there was one 32 man bracket that year.

[CHROMEBIRD]

It'll be interesting to see how the 3TD affects scrambling and whether it results in more or less stalemates. Will it motivate guys to take risks and scramble through to a takedown, or will it be more hanging onto legs and waiting for a restart to not give up 3?

[Hillbilly Jim]

On 6/14/2023 at 1:51 PM, Idaho said:

THey will happen much faster as well... might see more first round TF than we have ever seen. 

Maybe so--but at what price I am not so sure?  Yes, when you have wrestler who is clearly better--you can see more TFs. 

My concern is the good matches--the evenly matched guys.  The matches we really want to see.  I have a feeling in those marquee close matches we all love--when a guy gets a 1st period takedown he is gonna go into a shell and try to win 3-2.  I fear we will see a whole lotta neutral stalling in big matches.  I liked the fact with 2 pt takedowns, the guy with a lead can't as easily go into the deep freezer--unfortunately I am not sure the new 3 pt TD rule is gonna encourage more action in tight matches at all.

[fishbane]

They should compromise and set TDs at 2.5 points.  3 is too much.

[MPhillips]

1 hour ago, fishbane said:

They should compromise and set TDs at 2.5 points.  3 is too much.

A half point loss...

[Hillbilly Jim]

2 hours ago, MPhillips said:

A half point loss...

My point exactly.

[ionel]

13 minutes ago, Hillbilly Jim said:

My half point exactly.

ftfy.

[fishbane]

3 hours ago, MPhillips said:

A half point loss...

Don't start following the international styles.  I hear there is such a thing as a zero point loss...