Who will be the biggest impact transfer of the 2023-2024 season?

[82bordeaux]

10 hours ago, nhs67 said:

Who and how?

Any of Cass, Hendrickson, or Davison on any given day. He's a big boy and a great athlete. With a year in the Maryland room the sky is the limit.

[nhs67]

2 hours ago, 82bordeaux said:

Any of Cass, Hendrickson, or Davison on any given day. He's a big boy and a great athlete. With a year in the Maryland room the sky is the limit.

While I wish him success and do hope that both him and Meredith (SDSU) can qualify and win matches, I don't put him even the tier below those four.  I put him at best two tiers away from Cassioppi and Davison - right there with Catka, Trephan, etc.

How would you tier the HWT division for next season?

Actually I am going to start another thread so we don't hijack this one and I will tag you.

[1032004]

23 hours ago, nhs67 said:

If we are saying impact from a points added perspective from what they got last season, I am going to say Griffith (if he goes 174, not if he goes 165 and Amine at 174).

My next answer was going to be Nevills of Maryland, but looking at it and Jaron Smith went 1-2 last year at NCAAs.  I think Nevills has a comparable ceiling to Slavikouski.  Slavikouski is replacing a guy in Boone McDermott who went 0-2 at NCAAs.  That makes Slavikouski my 2nd option and Nevills my 3rd option.

Truax at 184 might win it all, but then his points are comparable.

Nagao might get 2nd, but then his points are comparable.

Davison might win it all, but then his points are comparable.

Jack Medley and Cole Mattin both went 2-2 at NCAAs for Michigan, so DeAuggie and Cannon can improve on that, but it won't be much more.  2 wins-ish isn't as much as Slavikouski or Nevills have potentially.

Voinovich might get 6th, but then his points are comparable.

Mesenbrink might AA next year for Penn State... but Facundo might also AA next year for Penn State at 165.  So... nothing is set in stone there.  Mesenbrink could also go 0-2... which would be comparable, right?

Shouldn’t you be more comparing to who they would have otherwise started at that weight?   

[nhs67]

19 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Shouldn’t you be more comparing to who they would have otherwise started at that weight?   

I compared to who they are replacing from last year.  Impact VS previous result.

[1032004]

38 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

I compared to who they are replacing from last year.  Impact VS previous result.

Semantics I guess, but I'd disagree.   For example Penn State goes from having a hole at 133 (not that it would have mattered for them to win the title), to having a top 3 or 4 guy.

[fishbane]

23 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

I compared to who they are replacing from last year.  Impact VS previous result.

I agree with 1032004 on this.  You should compare to last year only if that athlete is returning, but not when a transfer replaces a spot occupied by a graduating senior or someone leaving the team.  For example Nagao's impact at PSU should not be measured against RBY's performance this year PSU would have lost RBY's points anyway. If Nagao didn't transfer PSU would be putting out Timothy Levine, Karl Shindledecker, Baylor Shunk, Gary Steen, Marco Vespa, or Braedon Davis?  Nagao's impact would be replacing one of them in the lineup.  

[nhs67]

13 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Semantics I guess, but I'd disagree.   For example Penn State goes from having a hole at 133 (not that it would have mattered for them to win the title), to having a top 3 or 4 guy.

 

10 minutes ago, fishbane said:

I agree with 1032004 on this.  You should compare to last year only if that athlete is returning, but not when a transfer replaces a spot occupied by a graduating senior or someone leaving the team.  For example Nagao's impact at PSU should not be measured against RBY's performance this year PSU would have lost RBY's points anyway. If Nagao didn't transfer PSU would be putting out Timothy Levine, Karl Shindledecker, Baylor Shunk, Gary Steen, Marco Vespa, or Braedon Davis?  Nagao's impact would be replacing one of them in the lineup.  

That is fair, just not what I did.  I do see what you're saying.

That becomes a bit more difficult, but I will try...

Victor Voinovich (Iowa), replaces Cobe Siebrecht.  Both of them are 2-4 type wins at NCAAs.  That is even money.

Shane Griffith (Mich), replaces Max Maylor or Joseph Walker.  Both Maylor and Walker are 0-2 wins type guys at NCAAs.  Griffith is a 3-5 wins type of guy.  I will say he is +3.5 wins at NCAAs type of guy.

Chris Cannon (Mich), replaces Patrick Nolan or Chris Kim.  Kim is a fringe DNQ type of guy and Nolan is a 0-1 win type of guy at NCAAs.  Cannon, up a weight is kind of a wildcard, but is a 2-5 wins type of guy at NCAAs.  I will say that he is a +2.5 wins at NCAAs type of guy.

Michael DeAugstino (Mich), replaces Kurt McHenry or Caden Horwath.  I think McHenry and Horwath are both 0-2 wins type guys at NCAAs.  DeAuggie is a 2-5 wins type guy at NCAAs.  He has a wide range.  I am thinking DeAuggie is a +2.5 wins at NCAAs type of guy.

Lucas Davison (Mich), replaces Ira Jenkins.  Ira Jenkins is a 0-2 wins type of guy at NCAAs, depending on how big he gets.  Davison is a 4-5 wins type of guy at NCAAs.  I will say he is +3.5 wins at NCAAs type of guy.

Yaraslau Slavikouski (Rutgers), replaces Boone McDermott or PJ Casale.  McDermott is a 0-1 win at NCAAs type guy and Casale would be a 0-2 wins at NCAAs type guy, depending on the draw.  Slavikouski is a 3-4 win at NCAAs type guy.  I will say Slavikouski is +2.5 wins at NCAAs.

Aaron Nagao (Penn State), replaces Baylor Shunk, Braeden Davis, or David Evans.  I think Davis and Evans could be a 1-3 win at NCAAs type guy and Shunk doesn't qualify.  Let's call it 1-2 wins is what he is replacing and he is getting 4-5 wins (3rd or 4th).  Nagao is +3.5 wins at NCAAs..

Seth Nevills (Maryland), replaces Sam O'Brian.  O'Brian is DNQ type guy.  Nevills is a 3-4 wins type guy.  Nevills is a +3.5 wins at NCAAs.

Mitchell Mesenbrink (Penn State), replaces Alex Facundo.  I don't really think there is much debate to be had here, until proven otherwise.  For next season the change to Mesenbrink from Facundo is/would be -0.5 wins at NCAAs.

Bernie Truax (Penn State), replaces Aaron Brooks, Josh Barr, or Donovan Ball.  Had Truax not come in would Brooks have gone up?  If not then Truax is a regression.  If he goes up then he is replacing Ball or Barr.  I think Ball could have qualified, however is likely not winning any at nationals if he does.  Barr could win a match or three, depending on draw.  Truax is +3.5 wins at NCAAs.

[1032004]

31 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

 

That is fair, just not what I did.  I do see what you're saying.

That becomes a bit more difficult, but I will try...

Victor Voinovich (Iowa), replaces Cobe Siebrecht.  Both of them are 2-4 type wins at NCAAs.  That is even money.

Shane Griffith (Mich), replaces Max Maylor or Joseph Walker.  Both Maylor and Walker are 0-2 wins type guys at NCAAs.  Griffith is a 3-5 wins type of guy.  I will say he is +3.5 wins at NCAAs type of guy.

Chris Cannon (Mich), replaces Patrick Nolan or Chris Kim.  Kim is a fringe DNQ type of guy and Nolan is a 0-1 win type of guy at NCAAs.  Cannon, up a weight is kind of a wildcard, but is a 2-5 wins type of guy at NCAAs.  I will say that he is a +2.5 wins at NCAAs type of guy.

Michael DeAugstino (Mich), replaces Kurt McHenry or Caden Horwath.  I think McHenry and Horwath are both 0-2 wins type guys at NCAAs.  DeAuggie is a 2-5 wins type guy at NCAAs.  He has a wide range.  I am thinking DeAuggie is a +2.5 wins at NCAAs type of guy.

Lucas Davison (Mich), replaces Ira Jenkins.  Ira Jenkins is a 0-2 wins type of guy at NCAAs, depending on how big he gets.  Davison is a 4-5 wins type of guy at NCAAs.  I will say he is +3.5 wins at NCAAs type of guy.

Yaraslau Slavikouski (Rutgers), replaces Boone McDermott or PJ Casale.  McDermott is a 0-1 win at NCAAs type guy and Casale would be a 0-2 wins at NCAAs type guy, depending on the draw.  Slavikouski is a 3-4 win at NCAAs type guy.  I will say Slavikouski is +2.5 wins at NCAAs.

Aaron Nagao (Penn State), replaces Baylor Shunk, Braeden Davis, or David Evans.  I think Davis and Evans could be a 1-3 win at NCAAs type guy and Shunk doesn't qualify.  Let's call it 1-2 wins is what he is replacing and he is getting 4-5 wins (3rd or 4th).  Nagao is +3.5 wins at NCAAs..

Seth Nevills (Maryland), replaces Sam O'Brian.  O'Brian is DNQ type guy.  Nevills is a 3-4 wins type guy.  Nevills is a +3.5 wins at NCAAs.

Mitchell Mesenbrink (Penn State), replaces Alex Facundo.  I don't really think there is much debate to be had here, until proven otherwise.  For next season the change to Mesenbrink from Facundo is/would be -0.5 wins at NCAAs.

Bernie Truax (Penn State), replaces Aaron Brooks, Josh Barr, or Donovan Ball.  Had Truax not come in would Brooks have gone up?  If not then Truax is a regression.  If he goes up then he is replacing Ball or Barr.  I think Ball could have qualified, however is likely not winning any at nationals if he does.  Barr could win a match or three, depending on draw.  Truax is +3.5 wins at NCAAs.

Good analysis overall but I feel like you threw in a Jimmy Cinnabon troll at the end, as Brooks will still be the favorite at 197.

Similarly, if Siebrecht is still in Iowa's lineup, you'd probably need to compare to whoever else they have at 157.

But you might have just convinced me that Nevills could be the answer to this question.

[nhs67]

24 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Good analysis overall but I feel like you threw in a Jimmy Cinnabon troll at the end, as Brooks will still be the favorite at 197.

Similarly, if Siebrecht is still in Iowa's lineup, you'd probably need to compare to whoever else they have at 157.

But you might have just convinced me that Nevills could be the answer to this question.

If we are comparing VV to JJ or CR, then I am thinking +1.5 wins at NCAAs.  Iowa always puts out tough, quality guys at 149 and I think either of them might win a match or two at NCAAs.

Me mentioning Brooks was simply because he might not have gone up, or he still might have.  In either scenario, you can ignore the Brooks portion, as a likely starter at 197 - were Truax to go there - would be Cochran, who I believe would have similar output to Ball.  Still a +3.5 wins at NCAAs.