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Dean v Beard

Wrestleknownothing

By Wrestleknownothing
in College Wrestling

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Dean v Beard II(?) tonight (or in 3 weeks)  

41 members have voted

  1. 1. If I set the spread at Dean -2.5, who ya got?

    • Dean covers
      18
    • Beard covers
      15
    • Beard outright
      7
    • It doesn't happen
      1

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nhs67 Big Brain

nhs67

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, PortaJohn said:

Spread should be 1.5.  This match is a true tossup and will be insanely close and boring

If the over under on Dean slamming him in that bow and arrow is 0.5 then I am taking the over.

"I know actually nothing.  It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me

 

 

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PortaJohn Big Brain

PortaJohn

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4 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

If the over under on Dean slamming him in that bow and arrow is 0.5 then I am taking the over.

There will be no bow & arrow.  It'll be a scoreless 1st.  Escape 2nd.  Escape 3rd then takedown by Dean and the spread's determined on whether Beard escapes or just gives up.  1.5 spread

I Don't Agree With What I Posted

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nhs67 Big Brain

nhs67

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8 minutes ago, PortaJohn said:

There will be no bow & arrow.  It'll be a scoreless 1st.  Escape 2nd.  Escape 3rd then takedown by Dean and the spread's determined on whether Beard escapes or just gives up.  1.5 spread

Fake news.  Dean destroys him.  He didn't just leave because he had to sit another year.  Dean jumped another level.

"I know actually nothing.  It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me

 

 

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Wrestleknownothing Big Brain

Wrestleknownothing

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37 minutes ago, PortaJohn said:

There will be no bow & arrow.  It'll be a scoreless 1st.  Escape 2nd.  Escape 3rd then takedown by Dean and the spread's determined on whether Beard escapes or just gives up.  1.5 spread

If I was running a casino I would definitely adjust the line lower at this point as more "money" has come in on Beard than Dean. I chose -2.5 initially because we have the presumption of a wrestleoff having occured, plus the rumor of a 1 point Dean win in the presumed wrestleoff. Then add in a Dean NC and you have to go higher. One guy won and one guy didn't. That has to count for something. And you can minimize the win by talking about favorable calls, but you cannot eliminate the win. Sure, we have the example of Cassar who didn't win the 197 spot against Rasheed, but then followed it up with a NC that included two wins against a generational talent to suggest that Beard can do the same. But until it happens, it hasn't happened.

Anyway, that was my reasoning for -2.5. But as I say, if I was running a casino I would drop that to -2 or maybe -1.5 based on current betting.

Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge

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1032004 Big Brain

1032004

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On 11/11/2022 at 12:31 PM, nhs67 said:

I think Dean wins and covers.  Beard waited to leave because it was close.  The gap widened in the room and he knew it.

Doesn’t Cael also have a history of not really caring about wrestleoffs?  Probably unlikely he sits a national champ…

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nhs67 Big Brain

nhs67

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2 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Doesn’t Cael also have a history of not really caring about wrestleoffs?  Probably unlikely he sits a national champ…

I never said wrestleoff.

"I know actually nothing.  It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me

 

 

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nhs67 Big Brain

nhs67

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2 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Or really any in-room competition for that matter.  He knows performance against a guy you see in practice everyday doesn’t always translate to more actual success

Well also like you said: Sit a NC?  Not likely unless they are seriously hampered by i jury or getting blown out of the water in the practice room and in actual performances.

"I know actually nothing.  It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me

 

 

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IfYouAintFirstYoureLast Junior Varsity

IfYouAintFirstYoureLast

Posted
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On 11/11/2022 at 12:31 PM, nhs67 said:

I think Dean wins and covers.  Beard waited to leave because it was close.  The gap widened in the room and he knew it.

I don't think it necessarily means the gap widened. I think it means the PSU chose a guy and Beard knew they wouldn't switch back to him.

Also Dean doesn't have gas tank issues vs competition. Beard does.

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