2023 NCAA Tournament Predictions Updated for Thursday Results

[Wrestleknownothing]

I have adjusted my projections to reflect today's results in a number of ways.

• My original projections were only advancement and placement points.
• After today's action I have included bonus points earned to date. Still no projected future bonus points.
• For anyone who has had one loss the probability of first or second place points has been removed from their expected points projections. For some this is a meaningful adjustment (#4 seeds Caleb Henson and Julian Ramirez). For others it does not impact their EP at all (seeds in the 20's, for example).
• Everyone with 2 loses has been zeroed out.

Bonus Points Matter

Who woulda thunk?

The story of the first two rounds is Bonus Points. Everything old is new again for PSU. They have rediscovered their bonus point ways. It will be hard to catch a team that goes in with a lead, and then out-distances all of their competition on day one bonus.

 

Team Race?

What team race?

I know, I know. There is still a lot of wrestling to go. But, PSU definitely extended their lead over Iowa today.

Not much else has changed other than VaTech has slid a touch from 7th to 8th in my projections.

The podium still looks like PSU, Iowa, Cornell, Nebraska.

The pre-tournament projections are the bars. The updated projections are the dots.

 

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

NEWS FLASH

Math guy gets math wrong.

I had an error in my denominator. I have no reasons, only excuses. And we know who those are for...

Here is my revised projection based on Thursday evening results.

I promise to do better, dig deeper, do fewer meetings, and more cocktails. I will stay after and do push ups, shoot free throws, and work on my multiplication tables. It will never happen again. Unless it does.

[ionel]

Surely you can declare a lock by now.  Please don't try to tell us someone else has a chance.  

[Mike Parrish]

PSU has a 21 point lead right now.

That's a long, ugly hill to climb.