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How many individual titles will each team win?


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Based on 2010 - 2022 here are the win probabilities by seed:

image.thumb.png.17210b97e0da2c784d81e30e3beb3717.png

 

Applying those to this year's seeds we get the following expected number of champs.

Who wants to take the under for PSU?

image.png.5784862ffb8dbc60033e1171ddf815c8.png

 

It is only 9.8 because I lopped off all the non-zero win probabilities that round to 0.0 (12 schools)

Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge

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Well, if you round - here is what you get.

Penn State - 2

Iowa - 1

Cornell - 1

Pittsburgh - 1

Iowa State - 1

Michigan - 1

Nebraska - 1

Northern Iowa - 1

North Carolina - 1

Using LOGIX this is what we get.

125 - Spencer Lee, Iowa

133 - Roman Bravo-Young, Penn State

141 - Cole Matthews - Pittsburgh

149 - Johnny Diakomihalis, Cornell

157 - Austin O'Connor, North Carolina

165 - David Carr, Iowa State

174 - Mikey Labriola, Nebraska

184 - Parker Keckeisen, Northern Iowa

197 - Max Dean, Penn State

285 - Mason Parris, Michigan

If I did an over/under of 3.5 for this being accurate I would go the under.

  • Fire 1

"I know actually nothing.  It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me

 

 

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