Michigan Team Placement at NCAA?

[kionga]

After last year's graduations, I expected this to be a relative down year.  However, I did expect it to be better that the 10th place finish many of the ranking sites are predicting.

I have done a little creative mathematics based on 2022 results.

125)  Medley (1.5 points)  I think he wins his first match and once in consolations.

133)  Ragusin (4.5)  This is what Micic scored last year.

141)  Mattin (0.5)  If he were totally healthy I would expect more.

149)  Lamer (0.5)  As above.

157)  Lewan (10)  Same as last year when he placed 5th.

165)  Amine  (12.5)  Same as last year when he placed 4th.

184)  Finesilver (8.5)  Points scored by 8th seed last year, Marcus Coleman, who placed 7th.

285)  Parris  (23)  Points scored last year by Nick Suriano placing first with one fall and one MD.

The above total of 61 points would have a team placement of fifth in 2022.  The tenth place finisher had 49 points.

Are the above projections overly optimistic?

[Wrestleknownothing]

30 minutes ago, kionga said:

After last year's graduations, I expected this to be a relative down year.  However, I did expect it to be better that the 10th place finish many of the ranking sites are predicting.

I have done a little creative mathematics based on 2022 results.

125)  Medley (1.5 points)  I think he wins his first match and once in consolations.

133)  Ragusin (4.5)  This is what Micic scored last year.

141)  Mattin (0.5)  If he were totally healthy I would expect more.

149)  Lamer (0.5)  As above.

157)  Lewan (10)  Same as last year when he placed 5th.

165)  Amine  (12.5)  Same as last year when he placed 4th.

184)  Finesilver (8.5)  Points scored by 8th seed last year, Marcus Coleman, who placed 7th.

285)  Parris  (23)  Points scored last year by Nick Suriano placing first with one fall and one MD.

The above total of 61 points would have a team placement of fifth in 2022.  The tenth place finisher had 49 points.

Are the above projections overly optimistic?

You will not want to hear this, but I have them coming in 12th with 36 plus bonus.

 

[kionga]

3 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

You will not want to hear this, but I have them coming in 12th with 36 plus bonus.

 

To the contrary, I like to hear the honest opinions of others.  Nothing is more disappointing than to build up high expectations only to have them dashed by reality.  If you have Parris winning 285, then you must expect very little from the rest of the team.

[Wrestleknownothing]

4 hours ago, kionga said:

To the contrary, I like to hear the honest opinions of others.  Nothing is more disappointing than to build up high expectations only to have them dashed by reality.  If you have Parris winning 285, then you must expect very little from the rest of the team.

I do things a little differently than that.

Rather than guess a finish (usually done by fans and too optimistically) or assume the finish will equal the seed (how all the ranking websites do it), I take a look at the empirical results for a given seed. For example, a #1 seed has finished with an average of 17 advancement and placement points between 2010 and 2022.

The problem with the ranking website approach is that it gives too much credit to the top 8 seeds at the expense of giving no credit to the next 25 seeds even though it never happens that way in real life.

So for Michigan it looks like this:

 

The expectation is that every one of my estimates will be wrong, but I will be right on average (hopefully).

[kionga]

37 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

I do things a little differently than that.

Rather than guess a finish (usually done by fans and too optimistically) or assume the finish will equal the seed (how all the ranking websites do it), I take a look at the empirical results for a given seed. For example, a #1 seed has finished with an average of 17 advancement and placement points between 2010 and 2022.

The problem with the ranking website approach is that it gives too much credit to the top 8 seeds at the expense of giving no credit to the next 25 seeds even though it never happens that way in real life.

So for Michigan it looks like this:

 

The expectation is that every one of my estimates will be wrong, but I will be right on average (hopefully).

Well, I hope you are wrong as far as Michigan is concerned.  35.5 points would have earned a team an 18th place finish last year.  I will certainly be disappointed if they finish out of the top ten this year.

I did notice that Flo has a story on how the Wolverines could finish in the top 4.  I didn't read it because I do not have a subscription, but in my fan's mind I can fantasize how that could be.

[Antitroll2828]

7 hours ago, kionga said:

After last year's graduations, I expected this to be a relative down year.  However, I did expect it to be better that the 10th place finish many of the ranking sites are predicting.

I have done a little creative mathematics based on 2022 results.

125)  Medley (1.5 points)  I think he wins his first match and once in consolations.

133)  Ragusin (4.5)  This is what Micic scored last year.

141)  Mattin (0.5)  If he were totally healthy I would expect more.

149)  Lamer (0.5)  As above.

157)  Lewan (10)  Same as last year when he placed 5th.

165)  Amine  (12.5)  Same as last year when he placed 4th.

184)  Finesilver (8.5)  Points scored by 8th seed last year, Marcus Coleman, who placed 7th.

285)  Parris  (23)  Points scored last year by Nick Suriano placing first with one fall and one MD.

The above total of 61 points would have a team placement of fifth in 2022.  The tenth place finisher had 49 points.

Are the above projections overly optimistic?

I think a bit optimistic bc lewan and amine both made the semis last year and that is a monumental task this season …Lewan would have to beat Ed Scott and Austin o Conner to make the semis and both are not great stylistic match ups for Lewan 

and amine has a brutal draw , Cook first round then Kennedy from Iowa then Hamiti just to make the semis , both should be R12 AAs guys but probably do most of their damage on the backside 

Edited March 14, 2023 by Antitroll2828

[scourge165]

23 minutes ago, kionga said:

Well, I hope you are wrong as far as Michigan is concerned.  35.5 points would have earned a team an 18th place finish last year.  I will certainly be disappointed if they finish out of the top ten this year.

I did notice that Flo has a story on how the Wolverines could finish in the top 4.  I didn't read it because I do not have a subscription, but in my fan's mind I can fantasize how that could be.

I think you're optimistic, but not overly so. 

Parris is the clear favorite. I have Kerkvliet, but...that's accurate and he could rack up some pins.
Ragusin is a guy who's all over the place for me, but I could see a top 5. 

I like Lamer and Medley and could see them grinding out a couple extra wins. Not a huge difference, but a few points. 

Lewan is a real wild card. The guy can score, but he's in a 1 point match or a tie match EVERY-FRIGGIN-TIME. So he can beat anyone and lose to anyone at the NCAAs with his style. 
Amine-I don't see him taking 4th

I'm not real high on Finesilver, but...results are results. He's produced. 

I think Michigan will finish with ~50 points in the 8-10 range.

[Wrassler]

6-8th

[Sheerstress]

I'm not going to predict an actual team placement other than they certainly can place top 10.  Given that this year they're not contending for the team title, I'd rather watch them be underdogs and try and exceed expectations.

Ragusin, Lewan, Amine, Finesilver, and Parris are obviously going to carry things.

If Medley wrestles well, and has an opportunity to outlast opponents in the consolation brackets he is a dark horse for the podium.

Kind of the same for Mattin, depending on his health going into the tournament.

Lamer seemed to be tiring at the end of the season, with some injury issues, although he will be much more relevant for the next three years.