Scouts Honor Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Lee RBY alirez yanni robb carr star brooks elam parris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pinnacle Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Maybe Glory can beat Spencer Lee if Princeton engineered some sort of magic potion to get him up to 160lbs by match time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TylerDurden Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Going through this, I was surprised that there were only two weights I hesitated at all to pick a winner: 141 and 197. For me, the other eight weights had clear favorites. Wt. - Winner, School - Confidence (10 being most confident) 125 - Spencer Lee, Iowa (10) - I don't see anyone in the field who can beat him. 133 - Roman Bravo Young, Penn State (8) - There are a couple of potential landmines in Fix and Vito, but they're on the other side of the bracket. 141 - Andrew Alirez, Northern Colorado (2) - Pretty low confidence in this pick, but not because of Alirez and his talent. Woods is definitely a contender (and perhaps the true favorite) and there have been close matches among the top seeds in this weight. I could see this bracket going crazy, despite two unbeaten wrestlers. 149 - Yanni Diakomihalis, Cornell (9) - Despite the early loss to Gomez, I can't see anyone clipping Yanni. 157 - Austin O'Connor, North Carolina (6) - O'Connor got a pretty good draw, IMO. Not much in his path to the final, whereas the bottom half is much more competitive. Lewan might keep the score close, and Franek could do the same, but those scores will be lying to you as AOC cruises into the final. 165 - David Carr, Iowa State (4) - Crazy bracket at 165. To me, Carr is the clear favorite, but I can't feel too confident when you have this amount of quality in the field. 174 - Carter Starocci, Penn State (7) - This is a battle for second between Lewis and Labriola. Starocci is on his way to being one of the best ever 184 - Aaron Brooks, Penn State (3) - I should have Brooks higher on my confidence ranking, because I think he's a top 5 NCAA wrestler, but I can't ignore Hidlay and Keckeisen. Brooks is better than both, but likely will have to beat both to win. 197 - Nino Bonaccorsi, Pitt (1) - Nino is the default pick as the No. 1 seed, but I don't have any confidence in this. Dean/Allred are 8/9 - both could beat Nino. 197 is not for the faint of heart. Wouldn't be surprised to see any of these guys win: Nino, Dean, Allred, Beard, Laird, Elam, Warner (yes, Warner), Trumble, Sloan, Cardenas, Truax. HWT - Mason Parris, Michigan (5) - Parris is healthy this year and looks fantastic...BUT...there are guys in this field who can beat him and based on that, I give Parris a 50/50 shot at a title. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pinnacle Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Having seen Hidlay vs. Brooks before my confidence is high that Hidlay will become a human Peleton in this match, giving the boundary a complete workout as he stays as far from Brooks as possible while trying to lull him into reaching too far just one time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ionel Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 45 minutes ago, Pinnacle said: Maybe Glory can beat Spencer Lee if Princeton engineered some sort of magic potion to get him up to 160lbs by match time. Magic, I thought that was his natural weight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packard Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 125 - Lee over Glory 133 - RBY over Fix (Don't think it's will happen, but I could see Fix winning here. He has to have been working for 12 months straight on RBY alone) 141 - Real Woods over Beau Bartlett (I could see this flip with Penn State Magic) 149 - Yianni over Mauler 156 - AOC over Haines 165 - Carr over Hamiti 174 - Carter over Lewis 184 - Brooks over Keckeison 197 - Allred over Truax 285 - Kerkvliet over Schultz Although neither scenario is likely, I could see Penn State with between 2 and 7 champions. Fix can potentially beat RBY A few upsets from other wrestlers and Beau Bartlett could be in the finals. Penn State freshmen have magic in the finals. Could Haines beat AOC? Lewis is the type of guy who could knock off Young I don't think Brooks has another letdown 197 is wild. I could see Dean as the Natty, but also not AA. I wouldn't say I like watching Schultz, but he's a huge dude with big move potential. I could see him upsetting Parris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cangemi Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Lee Araju Ailerez Yanni Adonian Otoole Starocci Brooks Beard Paris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScarletKnight Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 On 3/9/2023 at 11:57 PM, CHROMEBIRD said: Glory won't make the finals. Who will beat him? He's beaten kaylor and Courtney kind of easily. He'd have mckee or Cronin at night where he's fully recovered from his weight cut He's beaten Miller and Ungar twice already too. I don't see him being challenged before Lee match 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D3 for LU Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Hard choice... I don't who they'll be, but I DO know that they'll win it! D3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Higgitty Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 125 - Lee 133 - RBY 141 - Woods 149 - Yanni 157 - Haines 165 - Carr 174 - Starocci 184 - Brooks 197 - Dean/Nino HWT - Kerk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskerMac Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 125 Lee 133 RBY 141 Hardy 149 Yianni 157 Robb 165 Carr 174 Starocci 184 Brooks 197 Elam 285 Parris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D3 for LU Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 5 hours ago, D3 for LU said: Hard choice... I don't who they'll be, but I DO know that they'll win it! D3 Hey... I thought it was a yukker (nyuk, nyuk, nyuk.) D3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnstownsteel Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Lee Rby Alirez Yanni Haines Carr Starocci Brooks Elam Kerk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
500 wrestler Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Key: 1st (% Confidence they will win) / 2nd (% Confidence that they willwin) / (% confidence that someone else in the field wins, with 0 meaning < 1%): 125: Lee (95) / Glory (5%) / 0% 133: RBY (65%) / FIx (30%) / 5% 141: Alirez (40%) / Woods (35%) / 25% 149: Yanni (90%) / Sasso (5%) / 5% 157: AOC (45%) / Robb (25%) / 30% 165: Carr (55%) / O'Toole (35%) / 10% 174: Starocci (90%) / Lewis (10%) / 0% 184: Brooks (75%) / Keckeisen (15%) / 10% 197: Bonaccorsi (25%) / Elam (20%) / 55% Hvy: Parris (45%) / Kerk (30%) / 25% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHROMEBIRD Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 14 minutes ago, 500 wrestler said: Key: 1st (% Confidence they will win) / 2nd (% Confidence that they willwin) / (% confidence that someone else in the field wins, with 0 meaning < 1%): Thanks. I like the confidence %s. Would you be willing to add a confidence rating that someone else in the field makes the finals? So they key would be: 1st (% Confidence they will win) / 2nd (% Confidence they will win) / Other finalist (% Confidence that someone else in the field makes the finals) / Other winner (% Confidence someone else in the field wins it all) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
500 wrestler Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, CHROMEBIRD said: Thanks. I like the confidence %s. Would you be willing to add a confidence rating that someone else in the field makes the finals? So they key would be: 1st (% Confidence they will win) / 2nd (% Confidence they will win) / Other finalist (% Confidence that someone else in the field makes the finals) / Other winner (% Confidence someone else in the field wins it all) Your question makes me realize my percentages were incomplete. Here is some more info, for example: 165: Carr (55%) / O'Toole (35%) / 10% I give Carr a 55% chance to win it all. I expect him to meet O'Toole in the final, and I give O'Toole a 35% chance to win it all. I give the rest of the field 10% chance to win it all. You didn't ask this, but If I were to break it down further, in this case I would give Carr about an 85% chance to make the finals (since I am pulling these numbers out of my ass I might as will do it with confidence) and O'Toole a 75% chance to get to the finals. In retrospect my maybe 10% was too high for the rest of the field, but there are a lot of good wrestlers at that weight and who knows what will happen. Note: all of my finalists were on opposite sides of the bracket as they should be. It would be possible (but not at all likely) for my 2 most likely winners to come from the same side of the bracket. As far as what you asked (confidence that another wrestler makes the finals), that could be derived from the last 2 percentages that I provided (85 and 75) . But there are really 3 cases: 1. Carr and someone else, 2. O' Toole and someone else, and 3. two other finalists. The math is not too hard (was a math major decades ago) but I'll leave that to someone else Edited March 12, 2023 by 500 wrestler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
500 wrestler Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 12 minutes ago, 500 wrestler said: Your question makes me realize my percentages were incomplete. Here is some more info, for example: 165: Carr (55%) / O'Toole (35%) / 10% I give Carr a 55% chance to win it all. I expect him to meet O'Toole in the final, and I give O'Toole a 35% chance to win it all. I give the rest of the field 10% chance to win it all. You didn't ask this, but If I were to break it down further, in this case I would give Carr about an 85% chance to make the finals (since I am pulling these numbers out of my ass I might as will do it with confidence) and O'Toole a 75% chance to get to the finals. In retrospect my maybe 10% was too high for the rest of the field, but there are a lot of good wrestlers at that weight and who knows what will happen. Note: all of my finalists were on opposite sides of the bracket as they should be. It would be possible (but not at all likely) for my 2 most likely winners to come from the same side of the bracket. As far as what you asked (confidence that another wrestler makes the finals), that could be derived from the last 2 percentages that I provided (85 and 75) . But there are really 3 cases: 1. Carr and someone else, 2. O' Toole and someone else, and 3. two other finalists. The math is not too hard (was a math major decades ago) but I'll leave that to someone else Apologies for nerding out here... if we were to assume my 87/75 chances of Carr and O'Toole each getting to the final were correct (which would be a big mistake), then the probabilities of the 4 options are: Carr and O'Toole in finals: .85*.75 = 64% Carr and someone else: .85 * (1-.75) = 21% O'Toole and Someone else: (1-.85) * .75 = 11% Two other people: (1-.85) * (1-.75) = 4% If I was building my original 55/35 numbers from the above, I would then assign likelihood of Carr or O'Toole winning in each of the first 3 scenarios above. But of course I did not do that, I just guessed the numbers. I could back into those numbers pretty easily though, but that that point I'm just assigning percentages to support my original numbers. What do I know, it will probably be Hamiti over Ramirez... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. PeanutButter Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 hours ago, johnstownsteel said: Lee Rby Alirez Yanni Haines Carr Starocci Brooks Elam Kerk Hey, you're that guy that keeps getting banned on HR, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyingcement Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 If I had to choose a national champion that was only from SoCon or MAC, I guess it would be: 125: Caleb Smith 133: Brayden Palmer 141: McKenzie Bell 149: Jon Millner 157: Peter Pappas 165: Izzak Olejnik 174: Rocky Jordan 184: Will Feldkamp 197: Ethan Laird 285: Taye Ghadiali 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkguy Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 40 minutes ago, flyingcement said: If I had to choose a national champion that was only from SoCon or MAC, I guess it would be: 125: Caleb Smith 133: Brayden Palmer 141: McKenzie Bell 149: Jon Millner 157: Peter Pappas 165: Izzak Olejnik 174: Rocky Jordan 184: Will Feldkamp 197: Ethan Laird 285: Taye Ghadiali I mean its not crazy absurd that laird wins 197.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elevator Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Glory Vito Cornell(a) Yianni Artalona Monday Foca Brooks Cardenas Slavikouski Without Brooks, looks like the First Team Ivy lineup! NCAA conspiracy at 184 to avoid Ivy sweep of NCAA's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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