Teams with a shot at multiple AA's

[Wrestleknownothing]

As of right now, there are 27 teams that have a chance at multiple All-Americans based on the average rank across Intermat, Flo, and Wrestlestat. Some of those teams are near certainties while others have a remote chance.

• To come up with the list I averaged everyone's rank across the three services.
• Then assuming ranks are equivalent to seeds (they won't be), I applied the historic seed results to determine the likelihood a given seed will AA.

I have posted that likelihood graph before, but here it is again for reference.

 

• There is no surprise that PSU, Iowa and Nebraska are the top three. But Nebraska has the least room for error among the top 10 teams.
• Only PSU and Nebraska are expected to get more than 50% of their ranked wrestlers on the podium (71.6% and 58.7%, respectively). Purdue falls just short.
• Note: People always struggle with the decimals in this. What does 0.44 of a wrestler look like, they ask? Since these are probabilities the best way to think of it is the decimal represents the probability of rounding up and one minus the decimal represents the probability of rounding down. Using PSU as an example, they have a 56% probability of 6 AA's and a 44% probability of 7 AA's (that oversimplifies a bit in that it assumes those are the only two possible outcomes - they are not).

I will update this when the actual NCAA seeds come out.