Rashad Evans and Phil Davis (Photo/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)Event: UFC on FOX 2: Evans vs. Davis
Venue: United Center (Chicago)
Date: Jan. 28, 2012
The UFC Monster is on fire, going 8-1 for a profit of $480 on the UFC 142 card. Now, finally after seven years of making predictions against the betting line established by Las Vegas oddsmakers, I'm showing a total net profit of $135 as documented below. Generally, I make predictions on the UFC PPV fights only, but I want to strike while the iron's hot, so let's see how we can do on this superb fight card being shown FREE on FOX TV. The prelims are also being shown live, and for free on Fuel TV, if you can find that channel!
Tonight's card is a showcase for wrestling fans. Some of the best pure wrestlers, All-Americans, and national champions will be pitted against each other in a night full of exciting Windy City fights. So let's take a look at the action and find some winners to pad our bankroll.
The featured fight pits former light heavyweight champion (205 pounds) and Michigan State wrestler Rashad Evans (16-1-1) against unbeaten former Penn State four-time All-American and NCAA champ Phil Davis (7-0). Evans' only loss was to Lyota Machida, who took his belt away 2 .5 years ago. Injuries have delayed Evans' title shot again after three consecutive wins (Thiago Silva, Rampage Jackson, Tito Ortiz). A win here, and he will get a shot at former training partner, Jonny "Bones" Jones for the belt. Some reward.
Davis has been impressive in his short career, and his wrestling skills may be the better of the two. But no title shot has been promised to him, and most likely, he will need a fight or two before getting anywhere near Bones Jones. Octagon experience, quality of opponents, and better striking will be the difference here, as the focused Evans won't be denied. This is a five-round non-title fight. It won't go the distance.
Rashad has KOs in the UFC over Tito Ortiz (16-10), Forrest Griffin (16-10), Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell (21-8), Sean Salmon (18-18), and Jason Lambert (25-12). Davis has none. A third-round KO will end this, after Davis gives it his best shot, and controls much of the action on the ground. It just won't be enough. Lay the -175 on Rashad Evans.
Two of the sport's biggest trash talkers meet when former Oregon AA, Chael Sonnen (26-11-1), and Brit Michael Bisping (22-3) tangle to determine who fights Anderson "Spider" Silva next for the middleweight (185 pounds) belt. Mark Munoz was supposed to meet Sonnen here, but is out with an injury. That's too bad as Munoz was a juicy 'dog to Sonnen.
This is a pure wrestler (Sonnen) vs. striker (Bisping) affair. We know how those things usually end (wrestlers win, of course), but the betting line is steep here, and it almost puts me on the sidelines. Neither fighter is anyone I care for. They are both obnoxious promoters of a sport I love.
Despite the ridiculous -400 price tag on Sonnen, I think he is the play here. Chael is one of the best pure MMA wrestlers out there. He should control the action and get his fair share of ground-and-pound in on the bewildered Bisping. Bisping is a quality striker, using both fists and kicks to do his damage. It is certainly possible that he catches Sonnen with a knee or punch, as he tries to defend the takedown, but my bet is that Sonnen will get his takedowns regardless and will earn a convincing three-round decision.
Sonnen's Achilles heel is that he has been submitted eight times in his 11 losses. However, Bisping hasn't won by submission in almost six years, so that's not likely to happen. That leaves the Brit needing a KO to cash. I don't see it happening. Lay the -400 on Sonnen and watch him lay-and-pray.
Brazilian middleweight Demian Maia (15-3 with 8 submissions) won his first six UFC fights by submission. Wow. But that was then and this is now. Maia is an improved striker, and is now concentrating on wrestling. His opponent is undefeated former Hofstra All-American wrestler, Chris Weidman (7-0), who is a late replacement for Bisping, who moved up to fight Sonnen. Strangely, they have made Weidman the favorite here despite the late, unexpected opportunity.
I jumped on Maia immediately at +140 as I think he has the edge in striking, jui-jitsu, and overall experience. Weidman is a beast and could certainly win this, but I think the better value lies in Maia. I'm predicting a second round choke submission for the Brazilian. Take Maia and the +135, which is the current price.
Now let's take a quick look at the undercard to be shown in its entirety on Fuel TV.
Lightweight (155 pounds) Evan Dunham (12-2 with 6 subs) has jui-jitsu skills on a different level than his opponent, former Minnesota wrestler Nik Lenz (21-4-2 with 9 subs). The -350 price tag is high, but Dunham wins this one at on a second round rear-naked choke.
Big heavyweight Jon Olav Einemo (6-2 with 5 subs) will give Mike Russow (14-1 with 8 subs) all he can handle. But Russow wins by submission in the first round and cashes at a reasonable price of -150. Tho' an Einemo submission wouldn't shock me.
Extreme Couture fighter Cub Swanson (15-5 with 7 subs) looks to win this featherweight (145 pounds) fight by outworking his opponent, George Roop (12-8-1). He gets it done here, and wins a unanimous decision at odds of -120. The betting public is pounding Roop, but I like Cub.
The Mexacutioner Joey Beltran (13-6 with 11 KOs) will go toe-to-toe, trading punches with former Strikeforce heavyweight, (265 pounds) Lavar "Big" Johnson (15-5) until one of them drops. My token is on Beltran at -215. I see a second-round KO ending this one.
Lightweight Charles Oliveira (14-2) should have little trouble disposing of Eric Wisely (19-6), who is making his UFC debut. Oliveira wins by first round submission, ending his two fight losing streak.
Former Oklahoma State wrestler Shane Roller (10-5) has lost two straight, but should get back on track here with a decision over Michael "The Menace" Johnson (9-6) in a lightweight match.
... and finally middleweight Muay Thai specialist Chris Carmozzi (15-5) is full of tattoos and confidence. He edges Dustin Jacoby (6-1) with a split decision. Lay the -170 on Carmozzi.
Now let's take a look at what we can do with our fictitious $1000 bankroll. We will show no mercy on the bookmakers.
Let's lay $175 to win $100 on Rashad Evans to KO Phil Davis.
Let's lay $100 to win $25 on Chael Sonnen's wrestler vs. striker match-up.
Let's lay $100 to win $135 on Demian Maia to choke-out Chris Weidman.
Let's lay $175 to win $50 on Evan Dunham's jits technique.
Let's lay $75 to win $50 on Russow over Einimo in the land of giants.
Let's lay $48 to win $40 on Cub Swanson.
Let's lay $48 to win $40 on Joey Beltran to get the better of Lavar Johnson.
Let's lay $75 to win $15 on Charles Oliveira to get back on track.
Let's lay $105 to win $50 on Shane Roller to roll ...
Let's lay $65 to win $50 on Chris Carmozzi and his tattoos.
In total we are risking $1004 to win $555. It won't be easy, but I think we can make a profit. Please only wager with money that you can afford to lose, or just sit back and enjoy the fights. I know I will.
And, don't forget to give some of your winnings to your local youth wrestling program where tomorrow's champions are born.
Good luck!
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