Date: May 23, 2009
Venue: MGM Grand (Las Vegas, Nevada)
Let me introduce myself to InterMat readers. I am the UFC Monster, a life-long fan of the mixed martial arts, and the father of three wrestling sons. My mission with this column is to provide analysis of the UFC fights … and also to try to turn the nation’s fastest growing sport into a little extra spending money, by beating the Las Vegas oddsmakers with my predictions. Unlike NFL football where the bookies have all the information to create a very tight betting line, the UFC has grown so quickly and by such quantum leaps, that new talent is always on the card and setting betting odds on the fights is a major challenge in itself. Often opening lines are not similar to the closing odds. This gives the bettor some great opportunities to make some dough, due to the weakness in the Vegas number.
Wrestlers have done extremely well in the sport of mixed martial arts. As MMA demands cross-trained athletes, versed in all aspects of the various fighting styles, wrestlers have always shown that a strong wrestling background with the ability to control your opponent’s body will often lead to success on the mat. It’s difficult to punch somebody with your shoulder blades pinned to the mat! With that being said, let’s take a look at tomorrow’s UFC 98 card.
The featured match is the battle for the light-heavyweight (205-pound) championship, between the defending champ, former Michigan State wrestler and undefeated Rashad Evans (18-0-1) against Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida also undefeated at (14-0-0). Machida is a replacement for the injured Rampage Jackson. While Rashad Evans always gets behind early and often struggles to stay alive before always ending his fights in surprise victories, Loyota Machida is the textbook of a perfect technical fighter, winning each and every round he has ever fought in the UFC!
Although he claims to be a Karate specialist, his counter-punching and strange angles with an unorthodox style has created problems for all of his long list of victims, including such names as BJ Penn, Rich Franklin, Tito Ortiz, Sokoudjou, and most recently, a devastating KO of previously unbeaten Thiago Silva.
True to form, the champ is an underdog again in a title fight. That alone should make an Evans play the value side to be on. But I’m going against the champ, and sticking with Machida to win a convincing five-round decision. I would prefer a KO or submission, but I believe Evans will give away early rounds as he tries to measure his prey for that sudden KO. Machida will have nothing of that and will make Evans look awkward and in a fight with less action that desired, Machida cashes the ticket @ -200.
In the co-main event, we have a legitimate grudge match between welterweights (170 pounds), Matt Hughes (43-7) and Matt Serra (16-5). These guys simply do not like each other. At all. As opposing coaches on the UFC Ultimate Fighter, they continued a long running feud. For years, Hughes dominated this weight division with his brute power and matching wrestling skills. But the former Eastern Illinois athlete has grown slower and lost much of his power, and has battled many injuries as his career comes to a close. Serra has also battled a back injury. His better days may be behind him as well. But he is the last man to beat Georges St. Pierre, and that counts for something in my book. Hughes looked awful against Thiago Alves, and Serra looked worse in his rematch with GSP. But throw that out the window, as this fight will get rolling in a hurry.
Neither one is a strong puncher, though both can land a lucky one. Hughes controls the wrestling, but Serra has the better jiu-jitsu. In a battle for bragging rights where both athletes will leave it on the mat, I’m going with the underdog Serra @ +230 to win with a third-round armbar submission.
In a most intriguing lightweight (155-pound) fight, we have one-time champion Sean “The Muscle Shark” Sherk (37-3-1) battling with Frank Edgar (9-1-0). The only losses on Sherk’s resume are to BJ Penn, GSP, and Matt Hughes. Edgar’s only loss was to strongman Gray Maynard. And that could be trouble for him as Sherk is a beast. But Edgar, who competed at Clarion, is an outstanding wrestler as well, and may have a more rounded game. Sherk also likes to stand and punch, where that strategy could get him in trouble with Edgar, where he may be looking to end it with a punching combination. I’m afraid it could be a ground-and-pound seminar if Sherk has his way with take-downs, and is able to ride his opponent on top. But getting Edgar @ +280 is just too good to pass up! Let’s hope for the upset as Edgar squeaks out a close split decision.
Middleweight (185-pound) Dan Miller (11-1-0) is coming off a beating he gave to former undefeated Okie State wrestler Jake Rosholt. But tonight’s mission is to beat former WEC champion Chael Sonnen (23-10-0). Sonnen is coming off a submission loss to Damian Maia, and may need this one a bit more, if he is to continue to climb in the UFC. He has a well-rounded game, and I believe he has enough take-down defense and punching power to pull an upset here. Take Sonnen @ +160 with a third-round TKO.
Why is this next fight on the main card? Other middleweights Drew “The Massacre” McFedries (7-5-0) and Xavier Foupa-Pokam (20-10-0) square off in a fight where neither has a ground game, and punches and kicks will dominate. While McFedries has huge power, he is one-dimensional, a puncher. The X-man has a strong Muay Thai base and after a number of leg kicks, should be able to get this to the ground where he will end it with a ref’s stoppage. I like Foupa-Pokam and advise laying the -200.
On the undercard we have six fights:
Heavyweight Pat Barry (4-0-0) will try to stay unbeaten with some vicious kicks against a much larger opponent, Canadian Tim Hogue (9-1-0), who outweighs him by 30 pounds and is five inches taller. In the land of Giants, it is often wise to take a bigger man with punching power against a smaller opponent, especially when the oddsmakers make that man a big underdog! I’ll take my puncher’s chance with Hogue @ +300.
Light-heavyweight Krzysztof Soszynski (18-9-1) comes out of Dan Henderson’s camp and is a replacement for Houston Alexander. He will take on Andre Gusmao (5-1-0).
While Gusmao may own the better ground game, I see another slight underdog @ +125 in the “Polish Experiment”, who has a decent chance at winning. Let’s go with Soszynski to win by second-round KO.
Welterweight Yoshiyuki “Zenko” Yoshida (10-3) is the biggest favorite on the card @ -500 to beat Brandon Wolf, who is still recovering from the brutal knees of Ben Saunders and a brutal Muay Thai beating he took about a year ago. He also had some surgery of his own. None of which bodes well in a fight with Yoshida. Let’s bridge jump and lay the lumber. Yoshida wins by first-round KO.
Lightweight Phillipe Nover (6-1-1) disappointed in his UFC debut, but should get the job done against journeyman Kyle Bradley (13-6-0). Nover is expected to show off his world-class jiu-jitsu in earning a victory with a first-round triangle choke. The odds of -350 will look like a bargain after this one.
When two lightweights fight, it is often the longer, lankier opponent that gets the victory, due to leverage in submissions or reach in punching. Here we have Dave Kaplan (3-2-0) at 5’6” tall, and we have George Roop (8-5-0) at 6’1” tall. Roop is the favorite @ -165, and he should be able to cash your ticket with a second-round rear-naked choke submission.
And, finally, Minnesotan Brock Larson, a welterweight (26-2-0), was expected to have a battle with Chris Wilson (13-5-0), but Wilson has been scratched today due to failures by his doctors to return some paperwork to Nevada officials! Are you kidding me? Wilson was also recently robbed at gunpoint in Brazil, and was taken hostage for a few hours, so one must wonder where his head is at anyways. Maybe this is for the best? He has been replaced by Mike Pyle (17-5-1). No betting line is posted.
So there you have it. Predictions from an old man who has followed the sport since its inception. Let’s see how we can do with a “fictitious” $1000 bankroll, should we?
Let’s lay $200 to win $100 on Machida.
Let’s lay $70 to win $161 on Serra.
Let’s lay $40 to win $112 on Edgar.
Let’s lay $50 to win $80 on Sonnen.
Let’s lay $150 to win $75 on Foupa-Pokam.
Let’s lay $40 to win $120 on Hogue.
Let’s lay $70 to win $87.5 on Soszynski.
Let’s lay $120 to win $ 24 on Yoshida.
Let’s lay $175 to win $ 50 on Nover.
Let’s lay $80 to win $ 50 on Roop.
No bet on Larson/Pyle.
In all, we are laying $995 trying to win $859.50. Let’s donate the remaining $5 to your local youth wrestling program!
Good luck and enjoy the fights.
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